| 1. |
- Norberg, Jon, et al.
(författare)
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Eco-evolutionary responses of biodiversity to climate change
- 2012
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 2:10, s. 747-751
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is predicted to alter global species diversity(1), the distribution of human pathogens' and ecosystem services(3). Forecasting these changes and designing adequate management of future ecosystem services will require predictive models encompassing the most fundamental biotic responses. However, most present models omit important processes such as evolution and competition(4,5). Here we develop a spatially explicit eco-evolutionary model of multi-species responses to climate change. We demonstrate that both dispersal and evolution differentially mediate extinction risks and biodiversity alterations through time and across climate gradients. Together, high genetic variance and low dispersal best minimized extinction risks. Surprisingly, high dispersal did not reduce extinctions, because the shifting ranges of some species hastened the decline of others. Evolutionary responses dominated during the later stages of climatic changes and in hot regions. No extinctions occurred without competition, which highlights the importance of including species interactions in global biodiversity models. Most notably, climate change created extinction and evolutionary debts, with changes in species richness and traits occuring long after climate stabilization. Therefore, even if we halt anthropogenic climate change today, transient eco-evolutionary dynamics would ensure centuries of additional alterations in global biodiversity.
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| 2. |
- Wickman, Jonas, et al.
(författare)
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Determining Selection across Heterogeneous Landscapes : A Perturbation-Based Method and Its Application to Modeling Evolution in Space
- 2017
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Ingår i: American Naturalist. - : UNIV CHICAGO PRESS. - 0003-0147 .- 1537-5323. ; 189:4, s. 381-395
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Spatial structure can decisively influence the way evolutionary processes unfold. To date, several methods have been used to study evolution in spatial systems, including population genetics, quantitative genetics, moment-closure approximations, and individual-based models. Here we extend the study of spatial evolutionary dynamics to eco-evolutionary models based on reaction-diffusion equations and adaptive dynamics. Specifically, we derive expressions for the strength of directional and stabilizing/disruptive selection that apply both in continuous space and to metacommunities with symmetrical dispersal between patches. For directional selection on a quantitative trait, this yields a way to integrate local directional selection across space and determine whether the trait value will increase or decrease. The robustness of this prediction is validated against quantitative genetics. For stabilizing/disruptive selection, we show that spatial heterogeneity always contributes to disruptive selection and hence always promotes evolutionary branching. The expression for directional selection is numerically very efficient and hence lends itself to simulation studies of evolutionary community assembly. We illustrate the application and utility of the expressions for this purpose with two examples of the evolution of resource utilization. Finally, we outline the domain of applicability of reaction-diffusion equations as a modeling framework and discuss their limitations.
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