| 1. |
- Brandefelt, Jenny, et al.
(författare)
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Northern Hemisphere Stationary Waves in Future Climate Projections
- 2008
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Ingår i: Journal of Climate. - : American Meteorological Society. - 0894-8755 .- 1520-0442. ; 21:23, s. 6341-6353
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The response of the atmospheric large-scale circulation to an enhanced greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing varies among coupled global climate model (CGCM) simulations. In this study, 16 CGCM simulations of the response of the climate system to a 1% yr(-1) increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration to quadrupling are analyzed with focus on Northern Hemisphere winter. A common signal in 14 out of the 16 simulations is an increased or unchanged stationary wave amplitude. A majority of the simulations may be categorized into one of three groups based on the GHG-induced changes in the atmospheric stationary waves. The response of the zonal mean barotropic wind is similar within each group. Fifty percent of the simulations belong to the first group, which is categorized by a stationary wave with five waves encompassing the entire NH and a strengthening of the zonal mean barotropic wind. The second and third groups, respectively consisting of three and two simulations, are characterized by a broadening and a northward shift of the zonal mean barotropic wind, respectively. A linear model of barotropic vorticity is employed to study the importance of these mean flow changes to the stationary wave response. The linear calculations indicate that the GHG-induced mean wind changes explain 50%, 4%, and 37% of the stationary wave changes in each group, respectively. Thus, for the majority of simulations the zonal mean wind changes do significantly explain the stationary wave response.
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| 2. |
- Hallgren, Christoffer, et al.
(författare)
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Looking for an Offshore Low-Level Jet Champion among Recent Reanalyses : A Tight Race over the Baltic Sea
- 2020
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Ingår i: Energies. - : MDPI. - 1996-1073. ; 13:14
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- With an increasing interest in offshore wind energy, focus has been directed towards large semi-enclosed basins such as the Baltic Sea as potential sites to set up wind turbines. The meteorology of this inland sea in particular is strongly affected by the surrounding land, creating mesoscale conditions that are important to take into consideration when planning for new wind farms. This paper presents a comparison between data from four state-of-the-art reanalyses (MERRA2, ERA5, UERRA, NEWA) and observations from LiDAR. The comparison is made for four sites in the Baltic Sea with wind profiles up to 300 m. The findings provide insight into the accuracy of reanalyses for wind resource assessment. In general, the reanalyses underestimate the average wind speed. The average shear is too low in NEWA, while ERA5 and UERRA predominantly overestimate the shear. MERRA2 suffers from insufficient vertical resolution, which limits its usefulness in evaluating the wind profile. It is also shown that low-level jets, a very frequent mesoscale phenomenon in the Baltic Sea during late spring, can appear in a wide range of wind speeds. The observed frequency of low-level jets is best captured by UERRA. In terms of general wind characteristics, ERA5, UERRA, and NEWA are similar, and the best choice depends on the application.
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| 3. |
- Hultgren, Kristoffer, et al.
(författare)
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What caused the exceptional mid-latitudinal Noctilucent Cloud event in July 2009?
- 2011
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Ingår i: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 1364-6826 .- 1879-1824. ; 73:14-15, s. 2125-2131
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Noctilucent Clouds (NLCs) are rarely observed at mid-latitudes. In July 2009, strong NLCs were recorded from both Paris and Nebraska, located at latitudes 48 degrees N and 41 degrees N, respectively. The main focus of this work is on the atmospheric conditions that have led to NLCs at these latitudes. We investigate to what extent these clouds may be explained by local formation or by transport from higher latitudes. The dynamical situation is analyzed in terms of wind fields created from Aura/MLS temperature data and measured by radar. We discuss possible tidal effects on the transport and examine the general planetary wave activity during these days. The winds do not seem sufficient to transport NLC particles long southward distances. Hence a local formation is rather likely. In order to investigate the possibility of local NLC formation, the CARMA microphysical model has been applied with temperature data from MLS as input. The results from the large-scale datasets are compared to NLC observations by Odin and to local NLC, temperature and wind measurements by lidar and radar. The reason for the exceptional NLC formation is most likely a combination of local temperature variations by diurnal tides, advantageously located large-scale planetary waves, and general mesospheric temperature conditions that were 5-10 K colder than in previous years. The results also point to that NLCs are very unlikely to occur at latitudes below 50 degrees N during daytime. This conclusion can be made from a tidal temperature mode with cold temperatures during nighttime and temperatures above the limit for NLC occurrence during daytime. The best time for observing mid-latitude NLCs is during the early morning hours.
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| 4. |
- Janzon, Erik, et al.
(författare)
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Single Column Model Simulations of Icing Conditions in Northern Sweden : Sensitivity to Surface Model Land Use Representation
- 2020
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Ingår i: Energies. - : MDPI. - 1996-1073. ; 13:16
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In-cloud ice mass accretion on wind turbines is a common challenge that is faced by energy companies operating in cold climates. On-shore wind farms in Scandinavia are often located in regions near patches of forest, the heterogeneity length scales of which are often less than the resolution of many numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The representation of these forests-including the cloud water response to surface roughness and albedo effects that are related to them-must therefore be parameterized in NWP models used as meteorological input in ice prediction systems, resulting in an uncertainty that is poorly understood and, to the present date, not quantified. The sensitivity of ice accretion forecasts to the subgrid representation of forests is examined in this study. A single column version of the HARMONIE-AROME three-dimensional (3D) NWP model is used to determine the sensitivity of the forecast of ice accretion on wind turbines to the subgrid forest fraction. Single column simulations of a variety of icing cases at a location in northern Sweden were examined in order to investigate the impact of vegetation cover on ice accretion in varying levels of solar insolation and wind magnitudes. In mid-winter cases, the wind speed response to surface roughness was the primary driver of the vegetation effect on ice accretion. In autumn cases, the cloud water response to surface albedo effects plays a secondary role in the impact of in-cloud ice accretion, with the wind response to surface roughness remaining the primary driver for the surface vegetation impact on icing. Two different surface boundary layer (SBL) forest canopy subgrid parameterizations were tested in this study that feature different methods for calculating near-surface profiles of wind, temperature, and moisture, with the ice mass accretion again following the wind response to surface vegetation between both of these schemes.
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| 5. |
- Syed, Faisal Saeed, et al.
(författare)
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On the fog variability over south Asia
- 2012
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Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 39:12, s. 2993-3005
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An increasing trend in fog frequencies over south Asia during winter in the last few decades has resulted in large economical losses and has caused substantial difficulties in the daily lives of people. In order to better understand the fog phenomenon, we investigated the climatology, inter-annual variability and trends in the fog occurrence from 1976 to 2010 using observational data from 82 stations, well distributed over India and Pakistan. Fog blankets large area from Pakistan to Bangladesh across north India from west to east running almost parallel to south of the Himalayas. An EOF analysis revealed that the fog variability over the whole region is coupled and therefore must be governed by some large scale phenomenon on the inter-annual time scale. Significant positive trends were found in the fog frequency but this increase is not gradual, as with the humidity, but comprises of two distinct regimes shifts, in 1990 and 1998, with respect to both mean and variance. The fog is also detected in ERA-Interim 3 hourly, surface and model level forecast data when using the concept of cross-over temperature combined with boundary layer stability. This fog index is able to reproduce the regime shift around 1998 and shows that the method can be applied to analyze fog over south Asia. The inter-annual variability seems to be associated with the wave train originating from the North Atlantic in the upper troposphere that when causing higher pressure over the region results in an increased boundary layer stability and surface-near relative humidity. The trend and shifts in the fog occurrence seems to be associated with the gradual increasing trend in relative humidity from 1990 onwards.
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