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| 2. |
- Bergström, Anna, et al.
(author)
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Modeling passenger train delay distributions : evidence and implications
- 2013
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Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- This paper addresses the lack of reliability within the Swedish rail network by identifying passenger train delay distributions. Arrival delays are analyzed in detail using data provided by the Swedish Transport Administration, covering all train departures and arrivals during 2008 and 2009. The paper identifies vulnerabilities by size, space and time in the network.Our results show that the delay distribution seems to be plagued by low probability high impact events. A major share of all delay time is associated with the tail of the delay distribution, indicating that extreme delays cannot be neglected when prioritizing between measures improving rail infrastructure. Delays are not only concentrated in size, but also concentrated in space and time and seem to follow a precise power law with respect to days and an exponential distribution with regard to stations. Moreover, we also examine the link between capacity usage and expected delay over different time scales.
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| 4. |
- Hultkrantz, Lars, 1952-, et al.
(author)
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Risk-adjusted long-term social rates of discount for transportation infrastructure investment
- 2014
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In: Research in Transportation Economics. - : Elsevier. - 0739-8859 .- 1875-7979. ; 47, s. 70-81
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We modify a method recently suggested by Weitzman (2012, 2013) for determining a risk-adjusted social discount rate (SDR) term structure consistent with both the (augmented) Ramsey rule and the consumption-based CAPM. Using this approach we estimate SDR for transportation infrastructure investments based on an analysis of correlations between transportation, split between road and rail, and between passenger travel and freight transport, and GDP in Sweden 1950–2011. We show that this can be estimated from two time-series following a random walk with drift, even if the variables are not co-integrated. Based on current estimates of the risk-free rate and the equity risk premium, we estimate the relevant SDR to be 5–6 per cent, possibly somewhat lower for investment in railroads for passenger travel, and only slowly declining within the investment horizon. This is higher than the current rates used in, for instance, Sweden, Germany and the UK.
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| 6. |
- Krüger, Niclas A., et al.
(author)
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Consumer value of fuel choice flexibility : a case study of the flex-fuel car in Sweden
- 2013
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In: European Transport Research Review. - Heidelberg, Germany : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1867-0717 .- 1866-8887. ; 5:4, s. 207-215
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Purpose: This paper examines the value of fuel choice flexibility derived from a flex-fuel engine. Method: Based on the stochastic properties of fuel prices, we use Monte-Carlo simulation in order to value the option to switch fuel. Results: Our findings indicate a considerable value of fuel choice flexibility, ranging between 7,500 and 37,800 SEK, depending on the underlying stochastic process we assume that fuel prices follow. This can be compared to the state subsidy of 10,000 SEK provided until recently for buying a flex-fuel car. Conclusion: Compared to an environmentally friendly pure ethanol strategy, the switching strategy is considerably less costly, about 2,000-19,000 SEK depending on the assumed underlying stochastic process, a fact that is important to take into consideration with environmental policy.
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| 7. |
- Krüger, Niclas A
(author)
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Estimating Traffic Demand Risk : A Multiscale Analysis
- 2012
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In: Transportation Research Part A. - Stockholm : Elsevier. - 0965-8564 .- 1879-2375. ; 46:10, s. 1741-1751
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper proposes a novel method for estimating the traffic demand risk associated with transportation. Using mathematical properties of wavelets, we develop a statistical measure of traffic demand sensitivity with respect to GDP. This measure can be adapted in a flexible way to capture risk levels relevant for different investment horizons. We demonstrate the timescale decomposition of risk with Swedish traffic demand data for 1950-2005. In general, rail transport shows a stronger co-movement with GDP than road transport. Moreover, we examine the volatility exhibited by traffic demand. Our findings suggest that rail investments are more risky than road investments. Since the findings can be used for optimal investment timing and for choice between public investment alternatives, they are deemed important for public policy in general.
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| 8. |
- Krüger, Niclas A
(author)
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Fatal Connections : Socioeconomic Determinants of Road Accident Risk and Drunk Driving in Sweden
- 2013
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In: Journal of Safety Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-4375 .- 1879-1247. ; 46, s. 49-65
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Problem: In recent years a considerable number of papers have examined socioeconomic factors influencing the number and the outcome of traffic accidents. There is however more research needed to confirm the previous results in order to generalize them and a need to examine additional factors that might have an impact.Method: This paper uses both regional panel data and national time series data combined with filtering techniques to determine what factors influence the number of accidents, the accident outcome and detected drunk driving.Results: Using time series data, it is found that the number of traffic fatalities increases for both per capita and per person kilometer travelled during economic booms. This indicates that the death risk rises not only because of increased mileage or motorization during booms. Using panel data, it is found that traffic fatalities decrease with unemployment, whereas personal injuries increase on a per capita basis with youth and the number of cars. In contrast to property crimes and other types of crime, drunk driving in Sweden decreases during economic contractions. Discussion: The main policy conclusion from our results is that resources for safety measures should not be spend uniformly across time and space. Instead, safety measures should be concentrated to areas with a high share of young people and to periods with low unemployment. The results of the time series analysis suggest that factors other than increased mileage during booms contribute to the higher rate of fatalities during good times. Increased risk taking, such as drunk driving, might be an explanatory factor.Impact on Industry: The results might be interesting for safety-oriented car and truck producers as well for developers of traffic safety products, since the results indicate in what regional markets and under what market conditions their products are most needed.
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| 9. |
- Krüger, Niclas A., et al.
(author)
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Good times are drinking times : empirical evidence on business cycles and alcohol sales in Sweden 1861-2000
- 2010
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In: Applied Economics Letters. - Oxfordshire: United Kingdom : Routledge. - 1350-4851 .- 1466-4291. ; 17:6, s. 543-546
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This article studies the relationship between the business cycle and alcohol sales in Sweden using a data set for the years 1861-2000. Using wavelet-based band-pass filtering, it is found that there is a pro-cyclical relationship, i.e. alcohol sales increases in short-term economic upturns. Using moving window techniques, we see that the pro-cyclical relationship holds over the entire time period. We also find that alcohol sales are a long-memory process with nonstationary behaviour, i.e. a shock in alcohol sales has persistent effects.
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| 10. |
- Krüger, Niclas A., 1975-
(author)
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Infrastructure investment planning under uncertainty
- 2009
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- This dissertation is concerned with the planning processes in transportation and infrastructure investments and the aim is to improve risk assessment, risk valuation and risk management. Many of the results presented in this thesis are also applicable to a wider range of questions.
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