| 1. |
- Blach, S., et al.
(författare)
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Global change in hepatitis C virus prevalence and cascade of care between 2015 and 2020: a modelling study
- 2022
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Ingår i: Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2468-1253. ; 7:5, s. 396-415
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Since the release of the first global hepatitis elimination targets in 2016, and until the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020, many countries and territories were making progress toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. This study aims to evaluate HCV burden in 2020, and forecast HCV burden by 2030 given current trends. Methods This analysis includes a literature review, Delphi process, and mathematical modelling to estimate HCV prevalence (viraemic infection, defined as HCV RNA-positive cases) and the cascade of care among people of all ages (age =0 years from birth) for the period between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2030. Epidemiological data were collected from published sources and grey literature (including government reports and personal communications) and were validated among country and territory experts. A Markov model was used to forecast disease burden and cascade of care from 1950 to 2050 for countries and territories with data. Model outcomes were extracted from 2015 to 2030 to calculate population-weighted regional averages, which were used for countries or territories without data. Regional and global estimates of HCV prevalence, cascade of care, and disease burden were calculated based on 235 countries and territories. Findings Models were built for 110 countries or territories: 83 were approved by local experts and 27 were based on published data alone. Using data from these models, plus population-weighted regional averages for countries and territories without models (n=125), we estimated a global prevalence of viraemic HCV infection of 0.7% (95% UI 0.7-0.9), corresponding to 56.8 million (95% UI 55.2-67.8) infections, on Jan 1, 2020. This number represents a decrease of 6.8 million viraemic infections from a 2015 (beginning of year) prevalence estimate of 63.6 million (61.8-75.8) infections (0.9% [0.8-1.0] prevalence). By the end of 2020, an estimated 12.9 million (12.5-15.4) people were living with a diagnosed viraemic infection. In 2020, an estimated 641 000 (623 000-765 000) patients initiated treatment. Interpretation At the beginning of 2020, there were an estimated 56.8 million viraemic HCV infections globally. Although this number represents a decrease from 2015, our forecasts suggest we are not currently on track to achieve global elimination targets by 2030. As countries recover from COVID-19, these findings can help refocus efforts aimed at HCV elimination. Copyright (C) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Bruggmann, P., et al.
(författare)
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Historical epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in selected countries
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Viral Hepatitis. - Hoboken : Wiley-Blackwell. - 1352-0504 .- 1365-2893. ; 21, s. 5-33
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Chronic infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading indicator for liver disease. New treatment options are becoming available, and there is a need to characterize the epidemiology and disease burden of HCV. Data for prevalence, viremia, genotype, diagnosis and treatment were obtained through literature searches and expert consensus for 16 countries. For some countries, data from centralized registries were used to estimate diagnosis and treatment rates. Data for the number of liver transplants and the proportion attributable to HCV were obtained from centralized databases. Viremic prevalence estimates varied widely between countries, ranging from 0.3% in Austria, England and Germany to 8.5% in Egypt. The largest viremic populations were in Egypt, with 6358000 cases in 2008 and Brazil with 2106000 cases in 2007. The age distribution of cases differed between countries. In most countries, prevalence rates were higher among males, reflecting higher rates of injection drug use. Diagnosis, treatment and transplant levels also differed considerably between countries. Reliable estimates characterizing HCV-infected populations are critical for addressing HCV-related morbidity and mortality. There is a need to quantify the burden of chronic HCV infection at the national level.
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| 4. |
- Razavi, H., et al.
(författare)
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The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection with today's treatment paradigm
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Viral Hepatitis. - Hoboken : Wiley-Blackwell. - 1352-0504 .- 1365-2893. ; 21:Suppl. 1, s. 34-59
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is expected to increase as the infected population ages. A modelling approach was used to estimate the total number of viremic infections, diagnosed, treated and new infections in 2013. In addition, the model was used to estimate the change in the total number of HCV infections, the disease progression and mortality in 2013-2030. Finally, expert panel consensus was used to capture current treatment practices in each country. Using today's treatment paradigm, the total number of HCV infections is projected to decline or remain flat in all countries studied. However, in the same time period, the number of individuals with late-stage liver disease is projected to increase. This study concluded that the current treatment rate and efficacy are not sufficient to manage the disease burden of HCV. Thus, alternative strategies are required to keep the number of HCV individuals with advanced liver disease and liver-related deaths from increasing.
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| 5. |
- Wedemeyer, H., et al.
(författare)
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Strategies to manage hepatitis C virus (HCV) disease burden
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Viral Hepatitis. - Hoboken : Wiley-Blackwell. - 1352-0504 .- 1365-2893. ; 21, s. 60-89
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The number of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections is projected to decline while those with advanced liver disease will increase. A modeling approach was used to forecast two treatment scenarios: (i) the impact of increased treatment efficacy while keeping the number of treated patients constant and (ii) increasing efficacy and treatment rate. This analysis suggests that successful diagnosis and treatment of a small proportion of patients can contribute significantly to the reduction of disease burden in the countries studied. The largest reduction in HCV-related morbidity and mortality occurs when increased treatment is combined with higher efficacy therapies, generally in combination with increased diagnosis. With a treatment rate of approximately 10%, this analysis suggests it is possible to achieve elimination of HCV (defined as a >90% decline in total infections by 2030). However, for most countries presented, this will require a 3-5 fold increase in diagnosis and/or treatment. Thus, building the public health and clinical provider capacity for improved diagnosis and treatment will be critical.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Beale, M. A., et al.
(författare)
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Global phylogeny of Treponema pallidum lineages reveals recent expansion and spread of contemporary syphilis
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature Microbiology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2058-5276. ; 6:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Syphilis, which is caused by the sexually transmitted bacterium Treponema pallidum subsp. pallidum, has an estimated 6.3 million cases worldwide per annum. In the past ten years, the incidence of syphilis has increased by more than 150% in some high-income countries, but the evolution and epidemiology of the epidemic are poorly understood. To characterize the global population structure of T. pallidum, we assembled a geographically and temporally diverse collection of 726 genomes from 626 clinical and 100 laboratory samples collected in 23 countries. We applied phylogenetic analyses and clustering, and found that the global syphilis population comprises just two deeply branching lineages, Nichols and SS14. Both lineages are currently circulating in 12 of the 23 countries sampled. We subdivided T. p.pallidum into 17 distinct sublineages to provide further phylodynamic resolution. Importantly, two Nichols sublineages have expanded clonally across 9 countries contemporaneously with SS14. Moreover, pairwise genome analyses revealed examples of isolates collected within the last 20 years from 14 different countries that had genetically identical core genomes, which might indicate frequent exchange through international transmission. It is striking that most samples collected before 1983 are phylogenetically distinct from more recently isolated sublineages. Using Bayesian temporal analysis, we detected a population bottleneck occurring during the late 1990s, followed by rapid population expansion in the 2000s that was driven by the dominant T. pallidum sublineages circulating today. This expansion may be linked to changing epidemiology, immune evasion or fitness under antimicrobial selection pressure, since many of the contemporary syphilis lineages we have characterized are resistant to macrolides. Global syphilis prevalence has been increasing. Sequencing and analysis of a global collection of 726 Treponema pallidum samples reveal globally circulating lineages linked to a rapid expansion occurring since the end of the twentieth century.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Beale, M., et al.
(författare)
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CONTEMPORARY SYPHILIS IS CHARACTERISED BY RAPID GLOBAL SPREAD OF PANDEMIC TREPONEMA PALLIDUM LINEAGES
- 2021
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Ingår i: Sexually Transmitted Infections. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 1368-4973 .- 1472-3263. ; 97:Suppl. 1, s. A17-A17
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Background: Syphilis is an important sexually transmitted infection caused by the bacterium Treponema pallidum subspecies pallidum. The last two decades have seen syphilis incidence rise in many high-income countries, yet the evolutionary and epidemiological relationships that underpin this are poorly understood, as is the global T. pallidum population structure.Methods: We assembled a geographically and temporally diverse collection of clinical and laboratory samples, performing direct sequencing on the majority, and combining these with 133 publicly available sequences to compile a dataset comprising 726 T. pallidum genomes. We analysed the resulting genomes using detailed phylogenetic analysis and clustering.Results: We show that syphilis globally can be described by only two deeply branching lineages, Nichols and SS14. We show that both of these lineages can be found circulatingcon currently in 12 of the 23 countries sampled. To provide further phylodynamic resolution we subdivided Treponema pallidum subspecies pallidum into 17 distinct sublineages. Importantly, like SS14, we provide evidence that two Nichols sublineages have expanded clonally across 9 countries contemporaneously with SS14. Moreover, pairwise genome analysis showed that recent isolates circulating in 14 different countries were genetically identical in their core genome to those from other countries, suggesting frequent exchange through international transmission pathways. This contrasts with the majority of samples collected prior to 1983, which are phylogenetically distinct from these more recently isolated sublineages. Bayesian temporal analysis provided evidence of a population bottleneck and decline occurring during the late 1990s, followed by a rapid population expansion a decade later. This was driven by the dominant T. pallidum sublineages circulating today, many of which are resistant to macrolides.Conclusion: Combined we show that the population of contemporary syphilis in high-income countries has undergone a recent and rapid global expansion. This dataset will provide a framework for future characterisation and epidemiological investigation of syphilis populations.
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