| 1. |
- Krishnan, Srinath, et al.
(författare)
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The Roles of the Atmosphere and Ocean in Driving Arctic Warming Due to European Aerosol Reductions
- 2020
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 47:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Clean air policies can have significant impacts on climate in remote regions. Previous modeling studies have shown that the temperature response to European sulfate aerosol reductions is largest in the Arctic. Here we investigate the atmospheric and ocean roles in driving this enhanced Arctic warming using a set of fully coupled and slab‐ocean simulations (specified ocean heat convergence fluxes) with the Norwegian Earth system model (NorESM), under scenarios with high and low European aerosol emissions relative to year 2000. We show that atmospheric processes drive most of the Arctic response. The ocean pathway plays a secondary role inducing small temperature changes mostly in the opposite direction of the atmospheric response. Important modulators of the temperature response patterns are changes in sea ice extent and subsequent turbulent heat flux exchange, suggesting that a proper representation of Arctic sea ice and turbulent changes is key to predicting the Arctic response to midlatitude aerosol forcing.
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| 2. |
- Lunt, Daniel J., et al.
(författare)
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The DeepMIP contribution to PMIP4 : experimental design for model simulations of the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM (version 1.0)
- 2017
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Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 10:2, s. 889-901
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Past warm periods provide an opportunity to evaluate climate models under extreme forcing scenarios, in particular high (>800 ppmv) atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Although a post hoc intercomparison of Eocene (similar to 50 Ma) climate model simulations and geological data has been carried out previously, models of past high-CO2 periods have never been evaluated in a consistent framework. Here, we present an experimental design for climate model simulations of three warm periods within the early Eocene and the latest Paleocene (the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM). Together with the CMIP6 pre-industrial control and abrupt 4 x CO2 simulations, and additional sensitivity studies, these form the first phase of DeepMIP - the Deep-time Model Intercomparison Project, itself a group within the wider Paleo-climate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). The experimental design specifies and provides guidance on boundary conditions associated with palaeogeography, greenhouse gases, astronomical configuration, solar constant, land surface processes, and aerosols. Initial conditions, simulation length, and output variables are also specified. Finally, we explain how the geological data sets, which will be used to evaluate the simulations, will be developed.
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| 3. |
- Pagani, Mark, et al.
(författare)
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The Role of Carbon Dioxide During the Onset of Antarctic Glaciation
- 2011
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 334:6060, s. 1261-1264
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Earth's modern climate, characterized by polar ice sheets and large equator-to-pole temperature gradients, is rooted in environmental changes that promoted Antarctic glaciation similar to 33.7 million years ago. Onset of Antarctic glaciation reflects a critical tipping point for Earth's climate and provides a framework for investigating the role of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) during major climatic change. Previously published records of alkenone-based CO(2) from high-and low-latitude ocean localities suggested that CO(2) increased during glaciation, in contradiction to theory. Here, we further investigate alkenone records and demonstrate that Antarctic and subantarctic data overestimate atmospheric CO(2) levels, biasing long-term trends. Our results show that CO(2) declined before and during Antarctic glaciation and support a substantial CO(2) decrease as the primary agent forcing Antarctic glaciation, consistent with model-derived CO(2) thresholds.
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| 4. |
- Schouten, Stefan, et al.
(författare)
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An interlaboratory study of TEX86 and BIT analysis of sediments, extracts, and standard mixtures
- 2013
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Ingår i: Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems. - 1525-2027. ; 14:12, s. 5263-5285
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Two commonly used proxies based on the distribution of glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) are the TEX86 (TetraEther indeX of 86 carbon atoms) paleothermometer for sea surface temperature reconstructions and the BIT (Branched Isoprenoid Tetraether) index for reconstructing soil organic matter input to the ocean. An initial round-robin study of two sediment extracts, in which 15 laboratories participated, showed relatively consistent TEX86 values (reproducibility +/- 3-4 degrees C when translated to temperature) but a large spread in BIT measurements (reproducibility +/- 0.41 on a scale of 0-1). Here we report results of a second round-robin study with 35 laboratories in which three sediments, one sediment extract, and two mixtures of pure, isolated GDGTs were analyzed. The results for TEX86 and BIT index showed improvement compared to the previous round-robin study. The reproducibility, indicating interlaboratory variation, of TEX86 values ranged from 1.3 to 3.0 degrees C when translated to temperature. These results are similar to those of other temperature proxies used in paleoceanography. Comparison of the results obtained from one of the three sediments showed that TEX86 and BIT indices are not significantly affected by interlaboratory differences in sediment extraction techniques. BIT values of the sediments and extracts were at the extremes of the index with values close to 0 or 1, and showed good reproducibility (ranging from 0.013 to 0.042). However, the measured BIT values for the two GDGT mixtures, with known molar ratios of crenarchaeol and branched GDGTs, had intermediate BIT values and showed poor reproducibility and a large overestimation of the true (i.e., molar-based) BIT index. The latter is likely due to, among other factors, the higher mass spectrometric response of branched GDGTs compared to crenarchaeol, which also varies among mass spectrometers. Correction for this different mass spectrometric response showed a considerable improvement in the reproducibility of BIT index measurements among laboratories, as well as a substantially improved estimation of molar-based BIT values. This suggests that standard mixtures should be used in order to obtain consistent, and molar-based, BIT values.
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| 5. |
- von Salzen, Knut, et al.
(författare)
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Clean air policies are key for successfully mitigating Arctic warming
- 2022
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Ingår i: Communications Earth & Environment. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2662-4435. ; 3:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A tighter integration of modeling frameworks for climate and air quality is urgently needed to assess the impacts of clean air policies on future Arctic and global climate. We combined a new model emulator and comprehensive emissions scenarios for air pollutants and greenhouse gases to assess climate and human health co-benefits of emissions reductions. Fossil fuel use is projected to rapidly decline in an increasingly sustainable world, resulting in far-reaching air quality benefits. Despite human health benefits, reductions in sulfur emissions in a more sustainable world could enhance Arctic warming by 0.8 °C in 2050 relative to the 1995–2014, thereby offsetting climate benefits of greenhouse gas reductions. Targeted and technically feasible emissions reduction opportunities exist for achieving simultaneous climate and human health co-benefits. It would be particularly beneficial to unlock a newly identified mitigation potential for carbon particulate matter, yielding Arctic climate benefits equivalent to those from carbon dioxide reductions by 2050.
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| 6. |
- Wilcox, Laura J., et al.
(författare)
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Accelerated increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation from future aerosol reductions
- 2020
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 20:20, s. 11955-11977
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There is a large range of future aerosol emissions scenarios explored in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), with plausible pathways spanning a range of possibilities from large global reductions in emissions by 2050 to moderate global increases over the same period. Diversity in emissions across the pathways is particularly large over Asia. Rapid reductions in anthropogenic aerosol and precursor emissions between the present day and the 2050s lead to enhanced increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation relative to scenarios with weak air quality policies. However, the effects of aerosol reductions do not persist to the end of the 21st century for precipitation, when instead the response to greenhouse gases dominates differences across the SSPs. The relative magnitude and spatial distribution of aerosol changes are particularly important for South Asian summer monsoon precipitation changes. Precipitation increases here are initially suppressed in SSPs 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5 relative to SSP1-1.9 when the impact of remote emission decreases is counteracted by continued increases in South Asian emissions.
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