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- Forsberg, Jonas, 1982-
(författare)
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Energy transition in transportation : Applying TIMES-based energy system optimisation models to sub-national levels
- 2021
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Transportation is embedded in the fabric of society and a key enabler of socio-economic development, but it is also a major source of carbon dioxide (CO2) and local air pollution (AP). Cities collectively account for around three quarters of total energy-related CO2 emissions, and the negative health impacts from local APs are most felt in dense urban environments. Thus, transitioning away from current fossil fuel regime in urban transportation is necessary to address both global and local challenges. Mathematical models as energy system optimisation models (ESOMs) are commonly applied to explore contrasting energy futures and to provide insights on how the energy system (or specific sub-sectors) may evolve under different conditions. However, ‘typical’ national level models are not fully adapted to capture the characteristics of local (city) transportation, and previous city-level ESOM based analyses have focused on decarbonisation of local energy systems, thus omitting other local policy considerations as e.g. air quality, and several studies excluded transportation altogether. In this thesis, a generic city-level ESOM framework (TIMES-City) was further adapted and used to provide policy-relevant insights on the anticipated energy transition of the local transport sector. The underlying work rests on a systems analysis approach, building on careful consideration of the overall system performance and boundaries, understanding of specific system characteristics, and challenges and opportunities facing local ‘system managers’; this has implications for model representation and for quantitative and qualitative modelling assumptions. Further, availability and quality of local transport, energy and emission data needed to calibrate models poses significant challenges, and considerable effort was also put on producing projections for future transport demand (a key model input), using lessons and input data from traditional transport demand models. These considerations were addressed in Paper I. The model was then applied to two different cases (in Sweden) to explore potential conflicts and co-benefits between ambitious climate targets and deep cuts in APs (Paper II), and to assess the roles of local and regional governments in CO2 mitigation when also considering ambitious national-scale policies (Paper III). The results of Paper II indicate that substituting fossil fuels for biofuels in conventional vehicles is the least-cost decarbonisation pathway, however this produces only minor or even negative benefits to air quality. While, zero-emission vehicles cut all local tail-pipe emissions, but their total impact on climate change mitigation is determined by upstream impacts from the conversion and distribution of energy carriers. Thus, ensuring low levels of total CO2 and APs from transportation calls for re-coupling of the local and global responsibilities and motivations into comprehensive mitigation strategies. The results of Paper III indicate that current Swedish national mitigation measures will drive down CO2 emissions in transportation considerably, but biofuel availability and BEV (battery electric vehicles) costs are critical for the rate and extent of the transition, while locally and regionally determined measures to enable shifts (from car) to active travelling, public transportation and home-based work have a much more limited direct impact. Nonetheless, these measures, along with city investments in BEVs and charging infrastructure which pave the way also for residents and local businesses, can help to reduce overall energy intensity of the transport sector, thus slowing down growth in fuel demand and contribute to reaching ambitious climate targets with limited renewable resources (as e.g. biofuels). The two studies (Papers II and III) illustrate the usefulness of applying comprehensive ESOMs also at sub-national levels, providing insights on both global and local sustainability implications as well as deeper understanding of the roles of local and regional decision-makers in enabling and supporting low-carbon transitions in transportation.
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- Forsberg, Jonas, et al.
(författare)
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Exploring local CO2 mitigation strategies in transportation under ambitious national policies – A participatory energy system modelling approach
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Sweden has adopted ambitious climate targets which require deep cuts in CO2 emissions from transportation. To achieve this, it has introduced policies to incentivise the electrification of road vehicles and progressive blending-in of biofuels. Many local governments have committed to do their share, but the impact of local strategies remains unclear. Here, locally rooted mitigation strategies are explored by applying a novel approach to participatory energy-system modelling via multiple researcher–practitioner interactions stretching over two years. A comprehensive Energy System Optimisation Model (ESOM) was used to assess the impact of local mitigation strategies employed in 15 municipalities, under a set of existing ambitious national policies. The results show that, while local strategies can help reduce energy-related CO2 emissions, the direct impact on such emissions is reduced under ambitious national policies. Still, local strategies to increase public transport and active travelling, and facilitate remote working also have local benefits as improved air quality and reduced traffic noise. Local policymakers should put stronger emphasis on such benefits. Finally, the long-term participatory approach also helped to build practitioners’ trust in the modelling process and created an environment for mutual learning and deeper understanding of climate mitigation options. These benefits justify the resource-intensive process.
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- Forsberg, Jonas, 1982-
(författare)
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On the road to climate neutral Swedish transportation: Energy system modelling to support the transition at national, regional, and local levels
- 2023
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Transportation is a critical pillar of modern society. Over the past decades, growth in mobility of people and goods have been both enabled by and dependent upon fossil fuels. Strong action is needed to break this dependence in order to reduce CO2. The overall aim of this thesis is to support the transition towards climate neutral transportation in Sweden considering local, regional, and national settings, by use of TIMES-based ESOMs. This is addressed by i) developing and adapting transport sector representation in TIMES models considering context specific conditions and preferences, ii) applying the models to define and explore alternative long-term scenarios that meet the overall goals, iii) and identify key measures and policy implications for achieving climate neutral transportation.In Paper I (Local setting) key considerations and requirements in respect of modelling local energy transition of transportation in a TIMES energy system modelling framework was outlined. The model was then applied to address potential trade-offs between global climate concerns and local air quality issues (Paper II – Local setting). The results showed that decarbonisation with biofuels does little to enhance local air quality, while zero-emission vehicles – that eliminate all local tailpipe emissions – can induce significant upstream CO2 emissions (from energy supply sectors). Comprehensive multi-level strategies are needed to drastically reduce both CO2 and local air pollutants. In Paper III (Regional setting), a participatory modelling approach was applied that involved local practitioners from 15 municipalities. The model results showed that strong national policies can drive down CO2 emissions drastically, and that the impacts from sub-national strategies was very limited under these policies. Still, during the discussions with local practitioners it was emphasized that local action is needed for enabling the measures seen as cost-efficient in the model analysis.The TIMES-Sweden model was adapted and used to explore key decarbonisation options in passenger and freight transportation, in a whole-energy-systems perspective. The model was disaggregated to capture underlying contextual heterogeneity in passenger transportation found across the country (Paper IV – National setting). The results showed that different policy strategies have different implications depending on the context, thus, underpinning a shift from one-size-fits-all policies into more regionally tailored strategies. Next (Paper V – National setting), the same model was used to investigate principally different modes of decarbonising domestic freight transportation. The results showed that road freight electrification reduces total demand for electricity over the entire energy system compared to the biofuel and the e-fuel pathways respectively, while also freeing biomass for other purposes than producing biofuels for road vehicles.Finally, the usefulness of ESOMs to identify policies to accelerate the decarbonization of transportation has been demonstrated, while outlining some challenges. For local level, the necessary data to calibrate the model was often not available, or available but with a system boundary representation incompliant with the model approach (e.g., fuel statistics). At the national level, a new approach was introduced that capture the underlying contextual factors of different actors. While capturing differences between urban, suburban and rural conditions, more research is needed to identify policies that ensure a just transition across socioeconomic groups.
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- Forsberg, Jonas, et al.
(författare)
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Recoupling Climate Change and Air Quality : Exploring Low-Emission Options in Urban Transportation Using the TIMES-City Model
- 2021
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Ingår i: Energies. - : MDPI. - 1996-1073. ; 14:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Fossil fuels in transportation are a significant source of local emissions in and around cities; thus, decarbonising transportation can reduce both greenhouse gases (GHGs) and air pollutants (APs). However, the degree of these reductions depends on what replaces fossil fuels. Today, GHG and AP mitigation strategies are typically ‘decoupled’ as they have different motivations and responsibilities. This study investigates the ancillary benefits on (a) APs if the transport sector is decarbonised, and (b) GHGs if APs are drastically cut and (c) the possible co-benefits from targeting APs and GHGs in parallel, using an energy-system optimisation model with a detailed and consistent representation of technology and fuel choices. While biofuels are the most cost-efficient option for meeting ambitious climate-change-mitigation targets, they have a very limited effect on reducing APs. Single-handed deep cuts in APs require a shift to zero-emission battery electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (BEVs, HFCVs), which can result in significant upstream GHG emissions from electricity and hydrogen production. BEVs powered by ‘green’ electricity are identified as the most cost-efficient option for substantially cutting both GHGs and APs. A firm understanding of these empirical relationships is needed to support comprehensive mitigation strategies that tackle the range of sustainability challenges facing cities.
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