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- Kühn, Ingolf, et al.
(författare)
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MACIS: Minimisation of and Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts on BiodiverSity
- 2008
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Ingår i: GAIA. - 0940-5550. ; 17:4, s. 393-395
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The recently finished EU funded project MACIS reviewed observed and projected climate change impacts on biodiversity. It assessed mitigation and adaptation options. It also reviewed and developed methods to assess future impacts of climate change on biodiversity including the identification of policy options to prevent and minimise these impacts.
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| 5. |
- Lautenbach, Sven, et al.
(författare)
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Trade-offs between plant species richness and carbon storage in the context of afforestation – Examples from afforestation scenarios in the Mulde Basin, Germany
- 2017
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Ingår i: Ecological Indicators. - : Elsevier BV. - 1470-160X. ; 73, s. 139-155
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The German Federal State of Saxony aims to increase forest cover, supported by the implementation of afforestation programs. To analyze consequences of an increase in forest cover, this study investigates possible trade-offs between carbon storage and plant biodiversity caused by afforestation. Six afforestation scenarios with total forest cover ranging from 27.7% to 46% were generated in the Mulde river basin in Saxony with regard to different forest types. Carbon storage was calculated by the process-based Dynamic Vegetation Model LPJ-GUESS while random forest models were used to predict changes in plant species richness. We used eight different plant groups as responses: total number of plant species, endangered species, as well as species grouped by native status (three groups) and pollination traits (three groups). Afforestation led to an increase in carbon storage that was slightly stronger in coniferous forests as compared to deciduous forests. The relationship between plant species richness and afforestation was context dependent. Species richness showed a non-linear relationship with forest cover share. The relationship was influenced by shares of land use types, climatic conditions and land use configuration expressed by the number of land use patches. The effect of forest type on plant species richness was marginal. On average the relationship between carbon storage and plant species richness was synergistic for most plant groups. However, the relationship between change in species richness and change in carbon storage varied across space. This changing relationship was used to identify priority areas for afforestation. The different plant groups responded differently to an increase in forest cover. The change in species richness for Red List species was relatively distinct from the other species groups. Neophytes and archeophytes (i.e. alien plant species introduced after and before the discovery of the Americas) showed a similar response to the afforestation scenarios. While afforestation had overall positive effects both on plant species richness and carbon storage, a number of locations were identified for which afforestation would lead to a decrease in plant species richness. Spatial planning should therefore avoid afforestation at these locations.
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| 6. |
- Pérez-Granados, Cristian, et al.
(författare)
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European scenarios for future biological invasions
- 2024
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Ingår i: People and Nature. - 2575-8314. ; 6:1, s. 245-259
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Invasive alien species are one of the major threats to global biodiversity, ecosystem integrity, nature's contributions to people and human health. While scenarios about potential future developments have been available for other global change drivers for quite some time, we largely lack an understanding of how biological invasions might unfold in the future across spatial scales.Based on previous work on global invasion scenarios, we developed a workflow to downscale global scenarios to a regional and policy-relevant context. We applied this workflow at the European scale to create four European scenarios of biological invasions until 2050 that consider different environmental, socio-economic and socio-cultural trajectories, namely the European Alien Species Narratives (Eur-ASNs).We compared the Eur-ASNs with their previously published global counterparts (Global-ASNs), assessing changes in 26 scenario variables. This assessment showed a high consistency between global and European scenarios in the logic and assumptions of the scenario variables. However, several discrepancies in scenario variable trends were detected that could be attributed to scale differences. This suggests that the workflow is able to capture scale-dependent differences across scenarios.We also compared the Global- and Eur-ASNs with the widely used Global and European Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a set of scenarios developed in the context of climate change to capture different future socio-economic trends. Our comparison showed considerable divergences in the scenario space occupied by the different scenarios, with overall larger differences between the ASNs and SSPs than across scales (global vs. European) within the scenario initiatives.Given the differences between the ASNs and SSPs, it seems that the SSPs do not adequately capture the scenario space relevant to understanding the complex future of biological invasions. This underlines the importance of developing independent but complementary scenarios focussed on biological invasions. The downscaling workflow we implemented and presented here provides a tool to develop such scenarios across different regions and contexts. This is a major step towards an improved understanding of all major drivers of global change, including biological invasions.
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| 7. |
- Pilotto, Francesca, et al.
(författare)
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Meta-analysis of multidecadal biodiversity trends in Europe
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Nature. - 2041-1723. ; 11:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Local biodiversity trends over time are likely to be decoupled from global trends, as local processes may compensate or counteract global change. We analyze 161 long-term biological time series (15-91 years) collected across Europe, using a comprehensive dataset comprising ~6,200 marine, freshwater and terrestrial taxa. We test whether (i) local long-term biodiversity trends are consistent among biogeoregions, realms and taxonomic groups, and (ii) changes in biodiversity correlate with regional climate and local conditions. Our results reveal that local trends of abundance, richness and diversity differ among biogeoregions, realms and taxonomic groups, demonstrating that biodiversity changes at local scale are often complex and cannot be easily generalized. However, we find increases in richness and abundance with increasing temperature and naturalness as well as a clear spatial pattern in changes in community composition (i.e. temporal taxonomic turnover) in most biogeoregions of Northern and Eastern Europe. The global biodiversity decline might conceal complex local and group-specific trends. Here the authors report a quantitative synthesis of longterm biodiversity trends across Europe, showing how, despite overall increase in biodiversity metric and stability in abundance, trends differ between regions, ecosystem types, and taxa.
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- Purschke, Oliver, et al.
(författare)
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Contrasting changes in taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional diversity during a long-term succession: insights into assembly processes
- 2013
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Ingår i: Journal of Ecology. - : Wiley. - 1365-2745 .- 0022-0477. ; 101:4, s. 857-866
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- 1. Theory predicts that the processes generating biodiversity after disturbance will change during succession. Comparisons of phylogenetic and functional (alpha and beta) diversity with taxonomic diversity can provide insights into the extent to which community assembly is driven by deterministic or stochastic processes, but comparative approaches have yet to be applied to successional systems. 2. We characterized taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional plant (alpha and beta) diversity within and between four successional stages in a > 270-year-long arable-to-grassland chronosequence. Null models were used to test whether functional and phylogenetic turnover differed from random expectations, given the levels of species diversity. 3. The three facets of diversity showed different patterns of change during succession. Between early and early-mid succession, species richness increased but there was no increase in functional or phylogenetic diversity. Higher than predicted levels of functional similarity between species within the early and early-mid successional stages, indicate that abiotic filters have selected for sets of functionally similar species within sites. Between late-mid and late succession, there was no further increase in species richness, but a significant increase in functional alpha diversity, suggesting that functionally redundant species were replaced by functionally more dissimilar species. Functional turnover between stages was higher than predicted, and higher than within-stage turnover, indicating that different assembly processes act at different successional stages. 4. Synthesis. Analysis of spatial and temporal turnover in different facets of diversity suggests that deterministic processes generate biodiversity during post-disturbance ecosystem development and that the relative importance of assembly processes has changed over time. Trait-mediated abiotic filtering appears to play an important role in community assembly during the early and early-mid stages of arable-to-grassland succession, whereas the relative importance of competitive exclusion appears to have increased towards the later successional stages. Phylogenetic diversity provided a poor reflection of functional diversity and did not contribute to inferences about underlying assembly processes. Functionally deterministic assembly suggests that it may be possible to predict future post-disturbance changes in biodiversity, and associated ecosystem attributes, on the basis of species’ functional traits but not phylogeny.
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- Purschke, Oliver, et al.
(författare)
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Interactive effects of landscape history and current management on dispersal trait diversity in grassland plant communities
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Ecology. - : Wiley. - 1365-2745 .- 0022-0477. ; 102:2, s. 437-446
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Summary Plant communities and their ecosystem functions are expected to be more resilient to future habitat fragmentation and deterioration if the species comprising the communities have a wide range of dispersal and persistence strategies. However, the extent to which the diversity of dispersal and persistence traits in plant communities is determined by the current and historical characteristics of sites and their surrounding landscape has yet to be explored. Using quantitative information on long-distance seed dispersal potential by wind and animals (dispersal in space) and on species' persistence/longevity (dispersal in time), we (i) compared levels of dispersal and persistence trait diversity (functional richness, FRic, and functional divergence, FDiv) in seminatural grassland plant communities with those expected by chance, and (ii) quantified the extent to which trait diversity was explained by current and historical landscape structure and local management history – taking into account spatial and phylogenetic autocorrel. Null model analysis revealed that more grassland communities than expected had a level of trait diversity that was lower or higher than predicted, given the level of species richness. Both the range (FRic) and divergence (FDiv) of dispersal and persistence trait values increased with grassland age. FDiv was mainly explained by the interaction between current grazing intensity and the amount of grassland habitat in the surrounding landscape in 1938. Synthesis. The study suggests that the variability of dispersal and persistence traits in grassland plant communities is driven by deterministic assembly processes, with both history and current management (and their interactions), playing a major role as determinants of trait diversity. While a long continuity of grazing management is likely to have promoted the diversity of dispersal and persistence traits in present-day grasslands, communities in sites that are well grazed at the present day, and were also surrounded by large amounts of grassland in the past, showed the highest diversity of dispersal and persistence strategies. Our results indicate that the historical context of a site within a landscape will influence the extent to which current grazing management is able to maintain a diversity of dispersal and persistence strategies and buffer communities (and their associated functions) against continuing habitat fragmentation.
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| 10. |
- Pöyry, Juha, et al.
(författare)
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The effects of soil eutrophication propagate to higher trophic levels
- 2017
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Ingår i: Global Ecology and Biogeography. - : Wiley. - 1466-822X .- 1466-8238. ; 26:1, s. 18-30
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- AimNitrogen deposition is a major global driver of change in plant communities, but its impacts on higher trophic levels are insufficiently understood. Here, we introduce and test a novel conceptual trait-based model describing how the effects of soil eutrophication cascade to higher trophic levels across differential plant–herbivore interactions.LocationNorthern Europe.MethodsWe synthesize previous literature on the effects of nitrogen on plants and herbivorous insects as well as relevant multispecies patterns of insect communities concerning species dietary breadth, body size, dispersal propensity and voltinism in order to derive the model. We empirically evaluate the proposed, hitherto untested, four main model pathways using statistical modelling and data on 1064 northern European butterfly and moth species, their life-history traits, phylogeny and population trends.ResultsWe show that across all species: (1) larval dietary breadth and host plant foliar nitrogen content are positively and equally strongly related to insect body size, and that (2) multivoltinism, host plant preferences for soil nitrogen, body size and larval dietary breadth are positively related to population trends of butterflies and moths as predicted by the model. Positive relationships between plant foliar nitrogen content and body size as well as multivoltinism and population trends are the first multispecies demonstrations for these patterns.Main conclusionsSoil nitrogen enrichment amplifies the diverging trends of herbivorous insects feeding on nitrophilous versus nitrophobous plants through differential plant–herbivore interactions, causing predictable changes in community composition at higher trophic levels. A positive foliar nitrogen–insect body size relationship, now empirically supported, is the integrating link within this cascade. As nitrogen deposition is a global driver, our model suggests that a major future trend may be an increased dominance of insects that are large, dispersive, multivoltine, dietary generalists or specialized on nitrophilous plant species at the expense of species preferring oligotrophic environments.
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