| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(författare)
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- 2020
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 6. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 7. |
- Kumar, Rakesh, et al.
(författare)
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Rice husk biochar-A novel engineered bio-based material for transforming groundwater-mediated fluoride cycling in natural environments
- 2023
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Ingår i: Journal of Environmental Management. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4797 .- 1095-8630. ; 343
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Biochar, a promising carbon-rich and carbon-negative material, can control water pollution, harness the synergy of sustainable development goals, and achieve circular economy. This study examined the performance feasibility of treating fluoride-contaminated surface and groundwater using raw and modified biochar synthesized from agricultural waste rice husk as problem-fixing renewable carbon-neutral material. Physicochemical characterizations of raw/modified biochars were investigated using FESEM-EDAX, FTIR, XRD, BET, CHSN, VSM, pHpzc, Zeta potential, and particle size analysis were analyzed to identify the surface morphology, functional groups, structural, and electrokinetic behavior. In fluoride (Fˉ) cycling, performance feasibility was tested at various governing factors, contact time (0–120 min), initial Fˉ levels (10–50 mg L−1), biochar dose (0.1–0.5 g L−1), pH (2–9), salt strengths (0–50 mM), temperatures (301–328 K), and various co-occurring ions. Results revealed that activated magnetic biochar (AMB) possessed higher adsorption capacity than raw biochar (RB) and activated biochar (AB) at pH 7. The results indicated that maximum Fˉ removal (98.13%) was achieved using AMB at pH 7 for 10 mg L−1. Electrostatic attraction, ion exchange, pore fillings, and surface complexation govern Fˉ removal mechanisms. Pseudo-second-order and Freundlich were the best fit kinetic and isotherm for Fˉ sorption, respectively. Increased biochar dose drives an increase in active sites due to Fˉ level gradient and mass transfer between biochar-fluoride interactions, which reported maximum mass transfer for AMB than RB and AB. Fluoride adsorption using AMB could be described through chemisorption processes at room temperature (301 K), though endothermic sorption follows the physisorption process. Fluoride removal efficiency reduced, from 67.70% to 53.23%, with increased salt concentrations from 0 to 50 mM NaCl solutions, respectively, due to increased hydrodynamic diameter. Biochar was used to treat natural fluoride-contaminated surface and groundwater in real-world problem-solving measures, showed removal efficiency of 91.20% and 95.61%, respectively, for 10 mg L−1 Fˉ contamination, and has been performed multiple times after systematic adsorption-desorption experiments. Lastly, techno-economic analysis was analyzed for biochar synthesis and Fˉ treatment performance costs. Overall, our results revealed worth output and concluded with recommendations for future research on Fˉ adsorption using biochar.
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| 8. |
- Sharma, Pushpa Kumari, et al.
(författare)
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Adsorptive behavior of Fe/Zn-modified nanobiochar for arsenic removal from naturally contaminated groundwater
- 2023
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Ingår i: Groundwater for Sustainable Development. - : Elsevier BV. - 2352-801X. ; 23, s. 101011-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global groundwater is frequently discovered to have high arsenic (As) concentrations, critically endangered and potentially toxic to aquatic organisms and humans. This work investigates As(V) adsorption using raw nanobiochar (RnBC) and activated magnetic nanobiochar (AMnBC), which are synthesized via pre-treating rice straw biomass with ZnCl2 and FeCl3 and pyrolyzing at 500 °C, followed by ball milling. The highest adsorption capacity for AMnBC and RnBC was 130 μg/g and 38.67 μg/g, respectively, at alkaline water chemistry to mimic natural groundwater conditions. Different functional groups contributed by modifications are evident with As(V) adsorption using RnBC and AMnBC. Multilayer chemisorption may explain the adsorption of As(V) on biochar surfaces, as Freundulich isotherm and pseudo-second-order kinetic model are suggested. The synthesis cost for AMnBC and RnBC was $0.0147/g and $0.0099/g, respectively, which helped to determine the most effective and efficient method for As(V) adsorption. In this study, natural As-contaminated groundwater collected from Patna, Bihar (India), was treated for As(V) removal using AMnBC in natural environments. Thus, this study recommends that cost-effective modified biochar can effectively be used for As(V) elimination from naturally contaminated groundwater as well as surface water.
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| 9. |
- Kumar, Rakesh, et al.
(författare)
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Co-transport and deposition of fluoride using rice husk-derived biochar in saturated porous media : Effect of solution chemistry and surface properties
- 2023
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Ingår i: Environmental Technology & Innovation. - : Elsevier BV. - 2352-1864. ; 30
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Fluoride (F-) contamination in water is a global health concern, threatening the well-being of millions. This study investigated the role of ZnCl2/FeCl3-rice husk-modified biochar (Zn-BC and Zn/Fe-BC) in treating F--contaminated surface and groundwater under the influence of varying solution chemistry, co-existing ions, and biochar-amended through column transport experiments. Modified biochar showed maximum F- adsorp-tion, 99.01% and 91.90% using Zn/Fe-BC and Zn-BC, respectively, than 85.87% using raw biochar (R-BC). Raw/modified biochars were characterized with FESEM-EDAX, FTIR, XRD, particle size, surface area, electro-kinetic potential, and point of zero charge analyses. Langmuir and pseudo-second-order kinetic could explain that F--biochar interactions are dominated by chemisorption at ambient temperature while physisorption at higher temperatures. The influence of salt concentrations and co-occurring ions reduced F- sorption using Zn/Fe-BC. Increased salt strengths led to reduced electrophoretic mobility of biochar particles, i.e., biochar-biochar particles attract each other and increase the hydrodynamic diameter, which ultimately reduces the active sites on biochar for F- adsorption. Co-transport and deposition of biochar and F- in saturated porous media revealed lower mobility of biochar, and maximum F- adsorption was observed at 10 mM salt strength. Biochar transport is governed by electrostatic interactions, whereas F- transport mainly occurs through chemisorption. In rural areas, hand pumps and tube wells are generally used as source of potable water for drinking and cooking purposes; thus, biochar-mediated sand columns can be utilized for defluoridation. Thus, Zn/Fe-BC can be utilized as a potential bio-adsorbent for F--contaminated natural surface and groundwater with optimum preparation and treatment costs.
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| 10. |
- Mohakud, Nirmal Kumar, et al.
(författare)
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Intrinsic insights to antimicrobial effects of Nitrofurantoin to multi drug resistant Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium ms202
- 2023
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Ingår i: Biomedicine and Pharmacotherapy. - : Elsevier. - 0753-3322 .- 1950-6007. ; 165
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Emerging multidrug resistant (MDR) serovar of Salmonella has raised the concern of their impactful effect on pathogenic infection and mortality in human lead by the enteric diseases. In order to combat the battle against these MDR Salmonella pathogen, new drug molecules need to be evaluated for their potent antibacterial application. This study evaluates the mechanistic antimicrobial effect of nitrofurantoin against a MDR strain of Salmonella named S. enterica Typhimurium ms202. The antimicrobial effect of nitrofurantoin was studied through experimental and computational approach using standard microbiological and molecular techniques like growth curve analysis, live-dead analysis, oxidative stress evaluation using high throughput techniques like flow cytometry and fluorescent microscopy. The result showed a potent dose dependent antibacterial effect of nitrofurantoin against S. enterica Typhimurium ms202 with a MIC value of 64 & mu;g/ml. Moreover, the mechanistic excavation of the phenomenon described the mechanism as an effect of molecular interaction of nitrofurantoin molecule with membrane receptor proteins OmpC of S. enterica Typhimurium ms202 leading to internalization of the nitrofurantoin heading towards the occurrence of cellular physiological disturbances through oxidative stress impeded by nitrofurantoin-Sod1 C protein interaction. The results indicated towards a synergistic effect of membrane damage, oxidative stress and genotoxicity for the antibacterial effect of nitrofurantoin against S. enterica Typhimurium ms202. The study described the potent dose-dependent application of nitrofurantoin molecule against MDR strains of Salmonella and guided towards their use in further discovered MDR strains.
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