| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 4. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 5. |
- Das, Supriyo Kumar, et al.
(författare)
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Phosphorus dynamics in shallow eutrophic lakes : an example from Zeekoevlei, South Africa
- 2009
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Ingår i: Hydrobiologia. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0018-8158 .- 1573-5117. ; 619, s. 55-66
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Zeekoevlei is the largest freshwater lake in South Africa and has been suffering from hyper-eutrophic conditions since last few decades. We have used total P (TP), dissolved phosphate (PO4 (3-)), organic P (OP), calcium (Ca) and iron (Fe) bound P fractions to investigate the relevant physical, chemical and biological processes responsible for sedimentation and retention of P and to study phosphorus (P) dynamics in this shallow lake. In addition, redox proxies (V/Cr and Th/U ratios) are used to study the prevailing redox conditions in sediments. Adsorption by CaCO3 and planktonic assimilation of P are found to control P sedimentation in Zeekoevlei. Low concentration of the labile OP fraction in surface sediments restricts the release of P by bacterial remineralisation. Low molar Ca/P and Fe/P ratios indicate low P retention capacity of sediments, and P is most likely released by desorption from wind-induced resuspended sediments and mixing of pore water with the overlying water column.
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| 6. |
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3-D band-stop FSS for X-band and Ku-band
- 2017
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Ingår i: 2017 Progress In Electromagnetics Research Symposium - Fall (PIERS - FALL). - : Electromagnetics Academy. - 9781538612118 - 9781538612125 ; , s. 671-675
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- A 3-D Frequency Selective Surface (FSS) with band-stop characteristics for X-band and Ku-band is proposed. A 3-D FSS unit cell is constructed by analyzing two 2-D FSS's. The size of the 3-D FSS unit cell is 5 mm × 5 mm wherein two layers of FR4 substrate with respective widths of 0.762 mm and 0.5 mm are used. Dual stop bands are obtained with this FSS unit cell around 10 GHz and 17.4 GHz; where a wide stop-band of 5.2 GHz is obtained. The parametric study carried out on the proposed design in terms change in nature of substrate, alternate use of different substrates and variation in angle of incidence. The 3-D FSS shows its band rejection property X-band and Ku-band respectively. Ansoft HFSS commercial EM solver software is used to carry out the simulation work.
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| 7. |
- Kumar, Rajesh, et al.
(författare)
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Multi Band Metamaterial Based Bowtie Antenna for Wireless Applications
- 2015
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Ingår i: PIERS 2015 Prague. - Cambridge, MA : Electromagnetics Academy. - 9781934142301 ; , s. 2368-2371
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- A new meta-material based bowtie antenna is proposed in this paper. Multi band response is observed in the simulated result of return loss for different frequencies (i.e., 1-12GHz). Apart from this it is seen that the return loss is improved in the case of metamaterial antenna in comparison to the conventional antenna. Simulated results of ζ and μ versus frequency are shown and it is observed that negative ζ and negative μ are obtained in different frequency bands respectively.
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| 8. |
- Kumar, Rajesh, et al.
(författare)
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Multi-band slotted bowtie antenna for L, S and C band applications
- 2017
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Ingår i: 2nd International Conference on Telecommunication and Networks (TEL-NET). - 9781509067107 ; , s. 104-107
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- A multi-band slotted bowtie antenna for L, S and C band applications is presented. The proposed antenna has the configuration of 40 mm58 mm1.5 mm. The slots are etched on the bowtie antenna to obtain multi-band features. The number of slots and spacing between them is varied for parametric study. The designed is fabricated on FR4 material and the measured and simulated results are in good agreement with each other thus confirming the proposed antenna design. High Frequency Structural Simulator (HFSS) is used for simulating the antenna design.
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| 9. |
- Kumar, Rajesh, et al.
(författare)
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Multi-resonant Bowtie Antenna with Modified Symmetric SRR for Wireless Applications
- 2020
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Ingår i: IETE Journal of Research. - : Taylor & Francis Group. - 0377-2063 .- 0974-780X. ; 66:1, s. 77-84
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A modified symmetric split ring resonator (MSSRR) loaded bowtie antenna with multi-band features over a range of 1.6–7.1 GHz is proposed in this paper. The antenna is designed on FR4 substrate with relative permittivity εr = 4.1 and thickness 1.5 mm. The fabricated antenna size is 40 mm × 58 mm. The Modified Symmetric SRR used beneath the substrate is novel and consists of two circles that are broken into four quarter circles by four rods. The effect of MSSRR location and its geometry is investigated and analysed thoroughly. The measurement results of the fabricated antenna are in good agreement with the simulation results, which confirms the proposed antenna design’s properties. ANSYS High Frequency Structural Simulator (HFSS) software is used for simulating the antenna.
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| 10. |
- Kumar, Rajesh, et al.
(författare)
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Orientation and Gap Independent Meta-surface Bowtie Antenna for WLAN Applications
- 2017
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Ingår i: 2017 8TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON COMPUTING, COMMUNICATION AND NETWORKING TECHNOLOGIES (ICCCNT). - : IEEE. - 9781509030385
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- A meta-surface loaded bowtie antenna with orientation and gap analysis depicting multi-band features from 1.5 GHz to 7.2 GHz is proposed. The orientation and the gap between the meta-surface unit cells are altered to investigate the effect on parameters like gain, bandwidth and directivity. The bowtie antenna uses FR4 material with relativity of 4.6, loss tangent of 0.02 and thickness h = 1.5 mm as substrate. The measured results of the fabricated antenna show a positive agreement with the simulation results. The proposed antenna shows the application in the range of WLAN. ANSYS High Frequency Structural Simulator (IIFSS) software is used to simulate the antenna.
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