| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Griswold, Max G., et al.
(författare)
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Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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| 5. |
- Pandey, Kavita, et al.
(författare)
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Improving electron transport in the hybrid perovskite solar cells using CaMnO3-based buffer layer
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nano Energy. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV. - 2211-2855 .- 2211-3282. ; 45, s. 287-297
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In the present article, the detailed analyses of interface properties and device performance of inorganic perovskite CaMnO3-based buffer layer hybrid perovskite solar cell have been undertaken. Analyses are based on ab initio simulations and macroscopic modelling. A thorough study of electronic and optical properties and interface charge dynamics revealed that CaMnO3 presents a better candidate for the electron transport material in thin film hole transporting material free hybrid perovskite solar cells with the planar architecture than the most common anatase TiO2. This result is founded on the more appropriate band gap and better band alignment with the hybrid perovskite, leading to the faster charge carrier mobility, improved charge transfer and reduced exciton recombination. The results from theoretical simulations are justified by the solar cell model, which explored the basic cell characteristics and parameters: open circuit voltage, short circuit current, fill factor and efficiency, as the functions of cell performance factors, like defect density, diffusion length, absorber layer thickness and band offset. Our model suggests an unoptimized device with a photo-conversion efficiency of almost 10% for the low defect concentrations under 10(15). With efficiency in the upper range for HTM free perovskite solar cells, we propose that the CaMnO3-based solar cell poses as an improvement upon the up to now most frequently used ones and provides important step toward their commercialisation.
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| 6. |
- Yadav, Sandhya, et al.
(författare)
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Comparison and optimization of protein extraction and two-dimensional gel electrophoresis protocols for liverworts
- 2020
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Ingår i: BMC Research Notes. - : Springer Nature. - 1756-0500. ; 13:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective Liverworts possess historical adaptive strategies for abiotic stresses because they were the first plants that shifted from water to land. Proteomics is a state-of-the-art technique that can capture snapshots of events occurring at the protein level in many organisms. Herein, we highlight the comparison and optimization of an effective protein extraction and precipitation protocol for two-dimensional gel electrophoresis (2-DE) of liverworts. Results We compared three different protein extraction methods, i.e.,1.5 M Tris-HCl (pH 8.8), 50 mM Tris-HCl (pH 7.5), and polyvinylpolypyrrolidone (PVPP) extraction, followed by three precipitation methods, i.e., 80% ethanol, 80% acetone, and 20% tricholoroacetic acid (TCA)-acetone, in a liverwort Dumortiera hirsuta. Among these methods, 50 mM Tris-HCl (pH 7.5) extraction, followed by 20% TCA-acetone precipitation, appeared to be more suitable for 2-DE. Furthermore, we performed modifications during protein washing, re-solubilization in rehydration buffer and isoelectric focusing (IEF). The modifications provided us better results in terms of protein yield, resolution, spot numbers, and intensities for 2-DE gels of D. hirsuta and other two liverworts, i.e., Marchantia paleacea and Plagiochasma appendiculatum. Furthermore, we randomly selected spots from the 2-DE gel of D. hirsuta and identified using mass spectrometry, which confirms the applicability of this protocol for liverworts proteomics.
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| 7. |
- Deswal, Renu, et al.
(författare)
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Plant proteomics in India and Nepal : Current status and challenges ahead
- 2013
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Ingår i: Physiology and Molecular Biology of Plants. - : Springer-Verlag New York. - 0971-5894 .- 0974-0430. ; 19:4, s. 461-477
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Plant proteomics has made tremendous contributions in understanding the complex processes of plant biology. Here, its current status in India and Nepal is discussed. Gel-based proteomics is predominantly utilized on crops and non-crops to analyze majorly abiotic (49 %) and biotic (18 %) stress, development (11 %) and post-translational modifications (7 %). Rice is the most explored system (36 %) with major focus on abiotic mainly dehydration (36 %) stress. In spite of expensive proteomics setup and scarcity of trained workforce, output in form of publications is encouraging. To boost plant proteomics in India and Nepal, researchers have discussed ground level issues among themselves and with the International Plant Proteomics Organization (INPPO) to act in priority on concerns like food security. Active collaboration may help in translating this knowledge to fruitful applications.
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| 8. |
- Garg, Nitish Kumar, et al.
(författare)
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A mononuclear iron(iii) complex with unusual changes of color and magneto-structural properties with temperature : Synthesis, structure, magnetization, multi-frequency ESR and DFT study
- 2022
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Ingår i: Dalton Transactions. - : Royal Society of Chemistry (RSC). - 1477-9226 .- 1477-9234. ; 51:6, s. 2338-2345
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- From the reaction of 2-hydroxy-6-methylpyridine (L) with iron(ii) tetrafluoroborate, a new mononuclear iron(iii) octahedral complex [FeL6](BF4)3 has been isolated. The color of the complex reversibly changed from red at room temperature to yellow-orange at the liquid nitrogen temperature. Magnetization measurements indicate that iron(iii) in [FeL6](BF4)3 is in a high-spin state S = 5/2, from room temperature to 1.8 K. The high-spin ground state of iron(iii) is also confirmed by DFT calculations. Although the spin-crossover of the complex is not observed, X-band and multifrequency high-field/high-frequency electron spin resonance (ESR) spectroscopy shows rather uncommon iron(iii) spectra at room temperature and an unusual change with cooling. Spectral simulations reveal that the S = 5/2 ground state multiplet of the complex can be characterized by the temperature independent axial zero-field splitting parameter of |D| = +2 GHz (0.067 cm-1) while the value of the rhombic parameter E of the order of some tenths MHz increases on lowering the temperature. Single crystal X-ray diffraction (SCXRD) shows that the iron(iii) coordination geometry does not change with temperature while supramolecular interactions are temperature dependent, influencing the iron(iii) rhombicity. Additionally, the DFT calculations show temperature variation of the HOMO-LUMO gap, in agreement with the changes of color and ESR-spectra of the iron(iii) complex with temperature.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Jaisankar, N., et al.
(författare)
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An intelligent agent based intrusion detection system using fuzzy rough set based outlier detection
- 2012
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Ingår i: Studies in Computational Intelligence. - Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin/Heidelberg. ; , s. 147-153
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Since existing Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) including misuse detection and anomoly detection are generally incapable of detecting new type of attacks. However, all these systems are capable of detecting intruders with high false alarm rate. It is an urgent need to develop IDS with very high Detection rate and with low False alarm rate. To satisfy this need we propose a new intelligent agent based IDS using Fuzzy Rough Set based outlier detection and Fuzzy Rough set based SVM. In this proposed model we intorduced two different inteligent agents namely feature selection agent to select the required feature set using fuzzy rough sets and decision making agent manager for making final decision. Moreover, we have introduced fuzzy rough set based outlier detection algorithm to detect outliers. We have also adopted Fuzzy Rough based SVM in our system to classify and detect anomalies efficiently. Finally, we have used KDD Cup 99 data set for our experiment, the experimental result show that the proposed intelligent agent based model improves the overall accuracy and reduces the false alarm rate.
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