| 1. |
- Aldea, Jorge, et al.
(författare)
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Current and future drought vulnerability for three dominant boreal tree species
- 2024
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 30
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts, possibly causing sudden and elevated tree mortality. Better understanding and predictions of boreal forest responses to climate change are needed to efficiently adapt forest management. We used tree-ring width chronologies from the Swedish National Forest Inventory, sampled between 2010 and 2018, and a random forest machine-learning algorithm to identify the tree, stand, and site variables that determine drought damage risk, and to predict their future spatial–temporal evolution. The dataset consisted of 16,455 cores of Norway spruce, Scots pine, and birch trees from all over Sweden. The risk of drought damage was calculated as the probability of growth anomaly occurrence caused by past drought events during 1960–2010. We used the block cross-validation method to compute model predictions for drought damage risk under current climate and climate predicted for 2040–2070 under the RCP.2.6, RCP.4.5, and RCP.8.5 emission scenarios. We found local climatic variables to be the most important predictors, although stand competition also affects drought damage risk. Norway spruce is currently the most susceptible species to drought in southern Sweden. This species currently faces high vulnerability in 28% of the country and future increases in spring temperatures would greatly increase this area to almost half of the total area of Sweden. Warmer annual temperatures will also increase the current forested area where birch suffers from drought, especially in northern and central Sweden. In contrast, for Scots pine, drought damage coincided with cold winter and early-spring temperatures. Consequently, the current area with high drought damage risk would decrease in a future warmer climate for Scots pine. We suggest active selection of tree species, promoting the right species mixtures and thinning to reduce tree competition as promising strategies for adapting boreal forests to future droughts.
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| 2. |
- Bolinius, Dämien J., et al.
(författare)
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Evaluating the consumption of chemical products and articles as proxies for diffuse emissions to the environment
- 2018
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Ingår i: Environmental Science. - : Royal Society of Chemistry (RSC). - 2050-7887 .- 2050-7895. ; 20:10, s. 1427-1440
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this study we have evaluated the use of consumption of manufactured products (chemical products and articles) in the EU as proxies for diffuse emissions of chemicals to the environment. The content of chemical products is relatively well known. However, the content of articles (products defined by their shape rather than their composition) is less known and currently has to be estimated from chemicals that are known to occur in a small set of materials, such as plastics, that are part of the articles. Using trade and production data from Eurostat in combination with product composition data from a database on chemical content in materials (the Commodity Guide), we were able to calculate trends in the apparent consumption and in-use stocks for 768 chemicals in the EU for the period 2003-2016. The results showed that changes in the apparent consumption of these chemicals over time are smaller than in the consumption of corresponding products in which the chemicals are present. In general, our results suggest that little change in chemical consumption has occurred over the timespan studied, partly due to the financial crisis in 2008 which led to a sudden drop in the consumption, and partly due to the fact that each of the chemicals studied is present in a wide variety of products. Estimated in-use stocks of chemicals show an increasing trend over time, indicating that the mass of chemicals in articles in the EU, that could potentially be released to the environment, is increasing. The quantitative results from this study are associated with large uncertainties due to limitations of the available data. These limitations are highlighted in this study and further underline the current lack of transparency on chemicals in articles. Recommendations on how to address these limitations are also discussed.
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| 3. |
- Ek, Anna, et al.
(författare)
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A randomized controlled trial for overweight and obesity in preschoolers : the More and Less Europe study – an intervention within the STOP project
- 2019
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Ingår i: BMC Public Health. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1471-2458. ; 19
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Childhood overweight and obesity is a serious public health issue with an increase being observed in preschool-aged children. Treating childhood obesity is difficult and few countries use standardized treatments. Therefore, there is a need to find effective approaches that are feasible for both health care providers and families. Thus, the overall aim of this study is to assess the acceptance and effectiveness of a parent support program (the More and Less, ML) for the management of overweight and obesity followed by a mobile health (mHealth) program (the MINISTOP application) in a socially diverse population of families.METHODS/DESIGN: A two-arm, parallel design randomized controlled trial in 300 2-to 6-year-old children with overweight and obesity from Romania, Spain and Sweden (n = 100 from each). Following baseline assessments children are randomized into the intervention or control group in a 1:1 ratio. The intervention, the ML program, consists of 10-weekly group sessions which focus on evidence-based parenting practices, followed by the previously validated MINISTOP application for 6-months to support healthy eating and physical activity behaviors. The primary outcome is change in body mass index (BMI) z-score after 9-months and secondary outcomes include: waist circumference, eating behavior (Child Eating Behavior Questionnaire), parenting behavior (Comprehensive Feeding Practices Questionnaire), physical activity (ActiGraph wGT3x-BT), dietary patterns (based on metabolic markers from urine and 24 h dietary recalls), epigenetic and gut hormones (fasting blood samples), and the overall acceptance of the overweight and obesity management in young children (semi-structured interviews). Outcomes are measured at baseline and after: 10-weeks (only BMI z-score, waist circumference), 9-months (all outcomes), 15- and 21-months (all outcomes except physical activity, dietary patterns, epigenetics and gut hormones) post-baseline.DISCUSSION: This study will evaluate a parent support program for weight management in young children in three European countries. To boost the effect of the ML program the families will be supported by an app for 6-months. If the program is found to be effective, it has the potential to be implemented into routine care to reduce overweight and obesity in young children and the app could prove to be a viable option for sustained effects of the care provided.
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| 4. |
- Emanuelson, Ulf, et al.
(författare)
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Economic status of dairy herds ranked by a reproductive performance indicator that accounts for the voluntary waiting period
- 2010
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Ingår i: Annual meeting of the European Association for Animal Production. - 1382-6077. ; , s. 146-146
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- A good reproductive performance is a central driving force in dairy herds to achieve a profitable production. Monitoring the performance is therefore an important component of herd management and several reproductive performance indicators are in use. In a previous study we compared how well a number of indicators could discriminate between herds with good or bad reproductive management efficiency and between herds with good or bad biological reproductive status. The results showed that a reproductive performance indicator, that accounts for the voluntary waiting period (VWP) of a herd, i.e. the percentage cows pregnant after the herd VWP plus 30 days (PPVWP+30), was to be preferred when both the purpose of the monitoring, ease of use, and preparedness for differences in management and future changes in management was considered. The aim of the current study was to evaluate how PPVWP+30 relates to the technical and economic status of a herd. A dynamic, stochastic simulation model, SimHerd, was used to generate data representing herds with different reproductive status. A total of 18 different scenarios were simulated by altering VWP, reproductive management efficiency and biological reproductive status of the herd. Each scenario was simulated over 10 years with 50 replications. The technical results showed a wide range of the observed values of PPVWP+30. The average PPVWP+30 for herds with good reproductive management efficiency and good biological reproductive status was thus 0.38 while it was 0.10 for herds with poor reproductive management efficiency and poor biological reproductive status. The average calving intervals for these two scenarios were 378 and 415 days, respectively. The overall correlation between the herd net return and PPVWP+30 and average calving interval was 0.75 and 0.66, respectively
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| 5. |
- Enkirch, Theresa, et al.
(författare)
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Hepatitis A outbreak linked to imported frozen strawberries by sequencing, Sweden and Austria, June to September 2018
- 2018
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Ingår i: Eurosurveillance. - : European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. - 1025-496X .- 1560-7917. ; 23:41
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Between June-September 2018, 20 hepatitis A cases were notified in six counties in Sweden. Combined epidemiological and microbiological investigations identified imported frozen strawberries produced in Poland as the source of the outbreak. Sequence analysis confirmed the outbreak strain IB in the strawberries with 100 % identity and the respective batch was withdrawn. Sharing the sequence information internationally led to the identification of 14 additional cases in Austria, linked to strawberries from the same producer.
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| 6. |
- Felton, Adam, et al.
(författare)
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The biodiversity contribution of wood plantations: Contrasting the bird communities of Sweden's protected and production oak forests
- 2016
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Ingår i: Forest Ecology and Management. - : Elsevier BV. - 0378-1127 .- 1872-7042. ; 365, s. 51-60
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The oak-dominated woodlands and forests of northern Europe have experienced dramatic declines due to agriculture, urbanization, and conifer-dominated production forestry. These losses have had a substantial negative impact on biodiversity due to the large number of forest species which depend on oak and the environments oak-dominated forests provide. Production oak stands may serve as a means of supplementing or complementing the habitat provided by the limited remaining natural oak remnants in this region. Here we evaluate the extent to which oak plantations in temperate southern Sweden provide habitat and resources for bird communities, by surveying and contrasting the bird species composition and diversity found in mature and young production oak stands (5 and 8 replicates respectively) and protected oak-dominated remnant forests (5 replicates). The mature production stands possessed a bird community partially overlapping in bird species composition, and comparable in species richness (34 species) to that found within protected oak forests (39 species). Furthermore, the production oak forests surveyed hosted threatened or near threatened bird species, including black woodpecker (Dryocopus martius), goldcrest (Regulus regulus), starling (Sturnus vulgaris), and yellowhammer (Emberiza citrinella). Though production oak forests cannot replace the habitat provided by protected oak forests, these stands do appear to provide conditions consistent with the habitat and resource requirements of a diverse cross-section of bird species in this region, including species of substantial conservation concern. Production oak forests thus have the capacity to make a positive contribution to biodiversity conservation, as well as providing a diverse range of goods and services to society. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 7. |
- Löf, Emma, et al.
(författare)
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A reproductive performance indicator, for dairy herds, that accounts for the voluntary waiting period
- 2010
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The reproductive performance of dairy herds can be monitored by various indicators. The most common are based on time intervals, such as the calving interval and days open, or various rates, such as the 100-day InCalf-rate. However, most indicators do not consider the different strategies applied at farm level, e.g. the herd’s voluntary waiting period (VWP). The VWP has been shown to vary considerably between herds, and the variation is likely to continue to increase. Many common reproductive performance indicators are thus not accurately representing the true reproductive performance and this bias may be increasing. The aim of this study was to evaluate a new reproductive performance indicator: the percentage of cows that are pregnant after the herd voluntary waiting period plus 30 days (PPVWP+30). Data representing herds with different reproductive status was simulated using SimHerd, a dynamic, stochastic simulation model. A total of 18 different scenarios were simulated by altering reproductive management efficiency and biological reproductive status of the herd. Logistic regression models, together with receiver operating characteristics (ROC), were used to examine how well the reproductive performance indicator discriminated between which of two levels of management efficiency or biological status a herd belonged to. PPVWP+30 showed a diagnostic sensitivity (DSe) of 0.82 and a diagnostic specificity (DSp) of 0.87 in the analysis of management efficiency, and an area-under-curve (AUC) in the ROC analysis of 0.90. Corresponding results in the analysis of biological status were DSe = 0.70, DSp = 0.66, and AUC = 0.75. PPVWP+30 was compared to several other common indicators and was evaluated as the single best reproductive performance indicator considering both management efficiency and biological status, ease of use, and preparedness for differences in management and future changes in management
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| 8. |
- Löf, Emma
(författare)
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Epidemiological studies of reproductive performance indicators in Swedish dairy cows
- 2012
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Reproductive efficiency in dairy cows is a key factor for milk producers, and numerous studies have identified impaired reproductive performance as a major cause of reduced production efficiency in the dairy industry. The overall aim of this thesis was to gain knowledge of factors affecting the reproductive performance indicators currently used by herd advisory services and to find other, possibly more efficient, ways to measure reproductive performance in dairy cows. The studies included in this thesis were based mainly on records from the Cattle Database at the Swedish Dairy Association, but also on data from a simulation model. The records used in the constituent studies of the thesis came from 2728 herds (Paper I), 483 herds (Paper II), 900 simulated herds (Paper III), and 132,721 individual cows (Paper IV). The statistical analyses were performed using multivariable linear and logistic regression models as well as survival analysis. Many statistically significant associations were found between herd and cow characteristics and reproductive performance. When allocating advisory service resources to improve reproductive performance, the focus should be on easily influenced herd characteristics, such as heat detection efficiency, nutritional status, do-it-yourself inseminations, and health deviations. Herd characteristics were also found to influence the degree of disagreements in reproductive performance indicators when data were updated after six months. Reproductive performance indicators that were adjusted for management strategy were evaluated, and percentage pregnant after the herd voluntary waiting period plus 30 days was found to be the best reproductive performance indicator with which to assess both reproductive management and reproductive physiology. Both percentage pregnant after the herd voluntary waiting period plus 30 days and percentage inseminated after the herd voluntary waiting period plus 30 days could be integrated for use in the herd advisory services. These indicators would be useful in providing information on herd performance and in establishing more efficient benchmarking between herds.
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| 9. |
- Löf, Emma, et al.
(författare)
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Evaluation of two dairy herd reproductive performance indicators that are adjusted for voluntary waiting period
- 2012
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Ingår i: Acta Veterinaria Scandinavica. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-605X .- 1751-0147. ; 54
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Overall reproductive performance of dairy herds is monitored by various indicators. Most of them do not consider all eligible animals and do not consider different management strategies at farm level. This problem can be alleviated by measuring the proportion of pregnant cows by specific intervals after their calving date or after a fixed time period, such as the voluntary waiting period. The aim of this study was to evaluate two reproductive performance indicators that consider the voluntary waiting period at the herd. The two indicators were: percentage of pregnant cows in the herd after the voluntary waiting period plus 30 days (PV30) and percentage of inseminated cows in the herd after the voluntary waiting period plus 30 days (IV30). We wanted to assess how PV30 and IV30 perform in a simulation of herds with different reproductive management and physiology and to compare them to indicators of reproductive performance that do not consider the herd voluntary waiting period. Methods To evaluate the reproductive indicators we used the SimHerd-program, a stochastic simulation model, and 18 scenarios were simulated. The scenarios were designed by altering the reproductive management efficiency and the status of reproductive physiology of the herd. Logistic regression models, together with receiver operating characteristics (ROC), were used to examine how well the reproductive performance indicators could discriminate between herds of different levels of reproductive management efficiency or reproductive physiology. Results The logistic regression models with the ROC analysis showed that IV30 was the indicator that best discriminated between different levels of management efficiency followed by PV30, calving interval, 200-days not-in calf-rate (NotIC200), in calf rate at100-days (IC100) and a fertility index. For reproductive physiology the ROC analysis showed that the fertility index was the indicator that best discriminated between different levels, followed by PV30, NotIC200, IC100 and the calving interval. IV30 could not discriminate between the two levels. Conclusion PV30 is the single best performance indicator for estimating the level of both herd management efficiency and reproductive physiology followed by NotIC200 and IC100. This indicates that PV30 could be a potential candidate for inclusion in dairy herd improvement schemes
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| 10. |
- Löf, Emma, et al.
(författare)
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Factors influencing the chance of cows being pregnant 30 days after the herd voluntary waiting period
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Dairy Science. - : American Dairy Science Association. - 0022-0302 .- 1525-3198. ; 97, s. 2071-2080
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The objective of this study was to study factors affecting a reproductive performance indicator at the cow level adjusted for herd management strategy. Associations between the outcome variable, pregnant or not at the herd voluntary waiting period (VWP) plus 30 d (pregnant at VWP+30), and the predictor variables were analyzed using a multivariable, generalized estimation equations model that adjusted for clustering of the data at the herd level. The statistical analysis was stratified on parity. In total, 132,721 cows were retained for analyses, of which 29,113 (22%) were pregnant at VWP+30 d. Of the nonpregnant cows, 81,483 cows had records of artificial inseminations (AI) and 22,125 cows had no records of AI. The chance of pregnancy was higher for cows of the Swedish Red and for other/crossbreeds compared with Swedish Holstein, for cows from herds with high heat detection efficiency compared with cows from herds with medium and low heat detection efficiency, for cows from herds with long VWP (i.e., >51 d) compared with cows from herds with short VWP (<51 d), and for cows in freestalls compared with cows in tiestalls. The chance for pregnancy was lower for cows with severe problems at claw trimming compared with cows with no problems at trimming (only for second- and higher-parity cows), for cows that had a record of reproduction-related disease, for cows that had a record of any other disease compared with cows without record, for second- and higher-parity cows with records of dystocia compared with cows with no record of dystocia, for first-parity cows in the group with the highest milk yield compared with first-parity cows in the group with the lowest milk yield, for cows of third and higher parity in the group with the lowest milk yield compared with cows in higher yielding groups, for cows bred in summer compared with those bred in winter-spring (not significant for first-parity cows), and for cows with a twin birth had compared with cows with a single birth. We observed associations of the dose-response type, such that when the milk fat-to-protein ratio increased, the chance for pregnancy decreased, and as the somatic cell count increased, the chance for pregnancy decreased. In conclusion, factors that are known to affect reproductive efficiency also affect the chance of cows being pregnant at the herd VWP plus 30 d.
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