| 1. |
- Beekman, Jan, et al.
(författare)
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Long-term population trends and shifts in distribution of Bewick's swans cygnus columbianus bewickii wintering in northwest Europe
- 2020
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Ingår i: Wildfowl. - 0954-6324. ; :69, s. 73-102
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Coordinated international censuses of the Northwest European Bewick's Swan Cygnus columbianus bewickii population have been undertaken across the swans' wintering range at c. 5-year intervals since 1984. During the early years of the study, numbers increased steadily to a peak of 29,780 individuals in January 1995, but then declined by 39.4% to 18,057 swans counted in January 2010 before showing a partial recovery to 20,149 recorded in January 2015. Changes in distribution across the wintering range were also recorded; a higher proportion of the population now remains in more easterly countries (notably Germany) in mid-winter, whilst only a handful of birds migrated to Ireland (at the western edge of the range) during the 2000s compared to >1,000 wintering there at the start of the study. Variation between censuses in the proportion of swans recorded in different parts of the range were attributable to weather conditions, with more swans wintering further north in warmer years. The overall percentage of cygnets recorded in each of the census years ranged from 9.6% in 2010 to 13.2% in 2005, with no obvious consistency over time in the distribution of cygnets across the wintering range. There were however changes between 1990 and 2015 in the swans' use of feeding habitats, with a decline in the proportion of birds on pasture and a corresponding increase in those on arable land. Decreases in the total population size and changes in distribution in the 21st century have implications for the designation and resultant protection of sites of international importance for the species.
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| 2. |
- Dalby, Lars, et al.
(författare)
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The status of the Nordic populations of the Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) in a changing world
- 2013
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Ingår i: Ornis Fennica. - : Finnish Omithological Soc. - 0030-5685. ; 90:1, s. 2-15
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Dabbling ducks (Anas spp.) are importantmigratory quarry species, protected as a shared resource under international legislation. However, there is a lack of sufficient high-quality data on vital demographic rates and long-term trends in numbers to judge the conservation status of many duck populations at the flyway level. In response to reported declines in the North-West European flyway population of theMallard, we compiled available data on this species in the Nordic countries up to 2010. Generally, national breeding numbers showed increasing trends, wintering abundance showed variable trends, and productivitymeasures indicated stable or increasing trends.Major knowledge gaps were identified, namely the size of hunting bags, the influence of the released Mallards and the role of short-stopping in explaining changing patterns of wintering abundance across the North-West European flyway. Numerically the Nordic breeding population appears in “good condition”, and the wintering numbers have been either stable or increasing in the last two decades. The annual number of releases needs to be determined in order to judge the sustainability of the current levels of exploitation. Overall, none of the indicators showed alarming signs for the Mallard population in the Nordic countries when considered in isolation. However, the widespread decline in wintering numbers elsewhere across North-western Europe requires urgent pan-European action.
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| 3. |
- Dalby, Lars, et al.
(författare)
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The status of the Nordic populations of the Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) in a changing world
- 2013
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Ingår i: Ornis Fennica. - : University of Helsinki. - 0030-5685. ; 90:1, s. 2-15
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Dabbling ducks (Anas spp.) are important migratory quarry species, protected as a shared resource under international legislation. However, there is a lack of sufficient high-quality data on vital demographic rates and long-term trends in numbers to judge the conservation status of many duck populations at the flyway level. In response to reported declines in the North-West European flyway population of the Mallard, we compiled available data on this species in the Nordic countries up to 2010. Generally, national breeding numbers showed increasing trends, wintering abundance showed variable trends, and productivity measures indicated stable or increasing trends. Major knowledge gaps were identified, namely the size of hunting bags, the influence of the released Mallards and the role of short-stopping in explaining changing patterns of wintering abundance across the North-West European flyway. Numerically the Nordic breeding population appears in "good condition", and the wintering numbers have been either stable or increasing in the last two decades. The annual number of releases needs to be determined in order to judge the sustainability of the current levels of exploitation. Overall, none of the indicators showed alarming signs for the Mallard population in the Nordic countries when considered in isolation. However, the widespread decline in wintering numbers elsewhere across North-western Europe requires urgent pan-European action.
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| 4. |
- Fox, Anthony D., et al.
(författare)
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Seeking explanations for recent changes in abundance of wintering Eurasian Wigeon (Anas penelope) in northwest Europe
- 2016
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Ingår i: Ornis Fennica. - 0030-5685. ; 93:1, s. 12-25
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We analysed annual changes in abundance of Eurasian Wigeon (Anas penelope) derived from mid-winter International Waterbird Census data throughout its northwest European flyway since 1988 using log-linear Poisson regression modelling. Increases in abundance in the north and east of the wintering range (Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Switzerland), stable numbers in the central range (Belgium, Netherlands, UK and France) and declining abundance in the west and south of the wintering range (Spain and Ireland) suggest a shift in wintering distribution consistent with milder winters throughout the range. However, because over 75% of the population of over 1 million individuals winters in Belgium, the Netherlands, UK and France, there was no evidence for a major movement in the centre of gravity of the wintering distribution. Between-winter changes in overall flyway abundance were highly significantly positively correlated (P = 0.003) with reproductive success measured by age ratios in Danish hunter wing surveys and less strongly and inversely correlated (P = 0.05) with mean January temperatures in the centre of the wintering range, suggesting that winter severity may also contribute to influence survival. However, adding winter severity to a model predicting population size based on annual reproductive success alone did not contribute to more effectively modelling the observed changes in population size. Patterns in annual reproductive success seem therefore to largely explain the recent dynamics in population size of northwest European Wigeon. Summer NAO significantly and positively explained 27% of variance in annual breeding success. Other local factors such as eutrophication of breeding sites and changes in predation pressure undoubtedly contribute to changes in the annual production of young and differences in hunting pressure as well as winter severity affect annual survival rates. However, it seems likely that the observed flyway population trend since 1988 has been mostly influenced by climate effects on the breeding grounds affecting reproductive success and marginally on the winter quarters affecting survival. We urge improved demographic monitoring of the population to better assess annual survival and reproductive success. We also recommend development of an adaptive management framework to remove uncertainties in our knowledge of Wigeon population dynamics as information is forthcoming to better inform management, especially to attempt to harmonise the harvest with annual changes in demography to ensure sustainable exploitation of this important quarry species now and in the future.
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| 5. |
- Gaget, Elie, et al.
(författare)
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Benefits of protected areas for nonbreeding waterbirds adjusting their distributions under climate warming
- 2021
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Ingår i: Conservation Biology. - : Wiley. - 0888-8892 .- 1523-1739. ; 35:3, s. 834-845
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate warming is driving changes in species distributions and community composition. Many species have a so-called climatic debt, that is, shifts in range lag behind shifts in temperature isoclines. Inside protected areas (PAs), community changes in response to climate warming can be facilitated by greater colonization rates by warm-dwelling species, but also mitigated by lowering extirpation rates of cold-dwelling species. An evaluation of the relative importance of colonization-extirpation processes is important to inform conservation strategies that aim for both climate debt reduction and species conservation. We assessed the colonization-extirpation dynamics involved in community changes in response to climate inside and outside PAs. To do so, we used 25 years of occurrence data of nonbreeding waterbirds in the western Palearctic (97 species, 7071 sites, 39 countries, 1993–2017). We used a community temperature index (CTI) framework based on species thermal affinities to investigate species turnover induced by temperature increase. We determined whether thermal community adjustment was associated with colonization by warm-dwelling species or extirpation of cold-dwelling species by modeling change in standard deviation of the CTI (CTISD). Using linear mixed-effects models, we investigated whether communities in PAs had lower climatic debt and different patterns of community change than communities outside PAs. For CTI and CTISD combined, communities inside PAs had more species, higher colonization, lower extirpation, and lower climatic debt (16%) than communities outside PAs. Thus, our results suggest that PAs facilitate 2 independent processes that shape community dynamics and maintain biodiversity. The community adjustment was, however, not sufficiently fast to keep pace with the large temperature increases in the central and northeastern western Palearctic. Our results underline the potential of combining CTI and CTISD metrics to improve understanding of the colonization-extirpation patterns driven by climate warming.
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| 6. |
- Gaget, Elie, et al.
(författare)
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Protected area characteristics that help waterbirds respond to climate warming
- 2022
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Ingår i: Conservation Biology. - : Wiley. - 0888-8892 .- 1523-1739. ; 36:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Protected area networks help species respond to climate warming. However, the contribution of a site's environmental and conservation-relevant characteristics to these responses is not well understood. We investigated how composition of nonbreeding waterbird communities (97 species) in the European Union Natura 2000 (N2K) network (3018 sites) changed in response to increases in temperature over 25 years in 26 European countries. We measured community reshuffling based on abundance time series collected under the International Waterbird Census relative to N2K sites’ conservation targets, funding, designation period, and management plan status. Waterbird community composition in sites explicitly designated to protect them and with management plans changed more quickly in response to climate warming than in other N2K sites. Temporal community changes were not affected by the designation period despite greater exposure to temperature increase inside late-designated N2K sites. Sites funded under the LIFE program had lower climate-driven community changes than sites that did not received LIFE funding. Our findings imply that efficient conservation policy that helps waterbird communities respond to climate warming is associated with sites specifically managed for waterbirds.
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| 7. |
- Laubek, Bjarke, et al.
(författare)
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Whooper swan cygnus cygnus January population censuses for northwest mainland Europe, 1995-2015
- 2020
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Ingår i: Wildfowl. - 0954-6324. ; :69, s. 103-122
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Internationally coordinated censuses of Whooper Swans Cygnus cygnus across continental northwest Europe were undertaken in mid-winter 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015. The estimate of 138,500 birds in 2015, the highest to date, represented a more than doubling of the population size (at an annual increase of 4.1%) since the first census total of 59,000 swans in 1995. The largest increase was in Denmark, where numbers almost trebled from 21,740 in 1995 to 62,620 in 2015. More than 97% of all swans were counted in just six countries. The percentage of total numbers increased significantly between 1995 and 2015 in Denmark (from 36.5% to 45.2%) and Germany (26.0% to 34.7%), but declined significantly in Sweden (14.2% to 8.4%), Norway (13.1% to 3.6%), Poland (6.2% to 4.0%) and the Netherlands (2.4% to 1.7%). The counts show an increasing discrepancy between national trends in abundance for Whooper Swans in Sweden and especially in Denmark in comparison with results obtained only from mid-winter International Waterbird Count (IWC) site coverage. This demonstrates the increasing tendency for Whooper Swans to winter in areas away from traditionally counted IWC sites and confirms the continued need for a regular cycle of coordinated dedicated swan counts to anchor population trends generated from other data sources.
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| 8. |
- Lehikoinen, Aleksi, et al.
(författare)
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Rapid climate driven shifts in wintering distributions of three common waterbird species
- 2013
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013. ; 19:7, s. 2071-2081
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is predicted to cause changes in species distributions and several studies report margin range shifts in some species. However, the reported changes rarely concern a species' entire distribution and are not always linked to climate change. Here, we demonstrate strong north-eastwards shifts in the centres of gravity of the entire wintering range of three common waterbird species along the North-West Europe flyway during the past three decades. These shifts correlate with an increase of 3.8 degrees C in early winter temperature in the north-eastern part of the wintering areas, where bird abundance increased exponentially, corresponding with decreases in abundance at the south-western margin of the wintering ranges. This confirms the need to re-evaluate conservation site safeguard networks and associated biodiversity monitoring along the flyway, as new important wintering areas are established further north and east, and highlights the general urgency of conservation planning in a changing world. Range shifts in wintering waterbirds may also affect hunting pressure, which may alter bag sizes and lead to population-level consequences.
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| 9. |
- Pavon-Jordan, Diego, et al.
(författare)
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Climate-driven changes in winter abundance of a migratory waterbird in relation to EU protected areas
- 2015
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Ingår i: Diversity and Distributions. - : Wiley. - 1366-9516. ; 21:5, s. 571-582
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- AimSpecies are responding to climate change by changing their distributions, creating debate about the effectiveness of existing networks of protected areas. As a contribution to this debate, we assess whether regional winter abundances and distribution of the Smew Mergellus albellus, a migratory waterbird species listed on Annex I (EU Birds Directive) that overwinters exclusively in European wetlands, changed during 1990-2011, the role of global warming in driving distributional changes and the effectiveness of the network of Special Protection Areas (SPAs, EU Birds Directive) in the context of climate change. LocationEurope. MethodsWe used site-specific counts (6,883 sites) from 16 countries covering the entire flyway to estimate annual abundance indices and trends at country, region (north-eastern, central and south-western) and flyway scales, inside and outside SPAs. We fitted autoregressive models to assess the effect of winter temperature on the annual abundance indices whilst accounting for autocorrelation. ResultsThe Smew wintering distribution shifted north-eastwards in Europe in accordance with the predictions of global warming, with increasing numbers in the north-eastern region and declines in the central region. Trends in wintering numbers were more positive in SPAs on the north-eastern and south-western part of the flyway. However, a large proportion of the wintering population remains unprotected in north-eastern areas outside of the existing SPA network. Main conclusionsSPAs accommodated climate-driven abundance changes in the north-eastern region of the wintering distribution by supporting increasing numbers of Smew in traditional and newly colonized areas. However, we highlight gaps in the current network, suggesting that urgent policy responses are needed. Given rapid changes in species distributions, we urge regular national and international assessments of the adequacy of the EU Natura 2000 network to ensure coherence in site-safeguard networks for this and other species.
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| 10. |
- Pavón-Jordán, Diego, et al.
(författare)
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Habitat- and species-mediated short- and long-term distributional changes in waterbird abundance linked to variation in European winter weather
- 2019
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Ingår i: Diversity and Distributions. - : Wiley. - 1366-9516. ; 25:2, s. 225-239
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim: Many species are showing distribution shifts in response to environmental change. We explored (a) the effects of inter-annual variation in winter weather conditions on non-breeding distributional abundance of waterbirds exploiting different habitats (deep-water, shallow water, farmland) and (b) the long-term shift in the population centroid of these species and investigate its link to changes in weather conditions. Location: Europe. Methods: We fitted generalized additive mixed Models to a large-scale, 24-year dataset (1990–2013) describing the winter distributional abundance of 25 waterbird species. We calculated the annual and long-term (3-year periods) population centroid of each species and used the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index to explain the inter-annual and long-term shifts in their location. Results: (a) Year-to-year southwestwards shifts in the population centroids of deep- and shallow-water species were linked to negative NAO values. Shallow-water species shifted northeastwards associated with positive NAO values and the distance shifted increased with increasing NAO. Deep-water species shifted northeastwards up to zero NAO indices, but showed no further increase at higher NAO values. (b) Deep-water species showed long-term northeastwards shifts in distributional abundance throughout the 1990s and the 2000s. Shallow-water species, on the other hand, shifted northeastwards during the 1990s and early 2000s, but southwestwards thereafter. There were no significant links between the NAO and year-to-year movements or long-term shifts in farmland species’ population centroid. Main Conclusions: We provide evidence for a link between both year-to-year and long-term changes in waterbird winter distributional abundances at large geographical scales to short- and long-term changes in winter weather conditions. We also show that species using shallow water, deep-water and farmland habitats responded differently, especially at high NAO values. As well as important ecological implications, these findings contribute to the development of future conservation measures for these species under current and future climate change.
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