| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 3. |
- Hantke, Max F., et al.
(författare)
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A data set from flash X-ray imaging of carboxysomes
- 2016
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Ingår i: Scientific Data. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2052-4463. ; 3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Ultra-intense femtosecond X-ray pulses from X-ray lasers permit structural studies on single particles and biomolecules without crystals. We present a large data set on inherently heterogeneous, polyhedral carboxysome particles. Carboxysomes are cell organelles that vary in size and facilitate up to 40% of Earth’s carbon fixation by cyanobacteria and certain proteobacteria. Variation in size hinders crystallization. Carboxysomes appear icosahedral in the electron microscope. A protein shell encapsulates a large number of Rubisco molecules in paracrystalline arrays inside the organelle. We used carboxysomes with a mean diameter of 115±26 nm from Halothiobacillus neapolitanus. A new aerosol sample-injector allowed us to record 70,000 low-noise diffraction patterns in 12 min. Every diffraction pattern is a unique structure measurement and high-throughput imaging allows sampling the space of structural variability. The different structures can be separated and phased directly from the diffraction data and open a way for accurate, high-throughput studies on structures and structural heterogeneity in biology and elsewhere.
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| 4. |
- Hantke, Max F., et al.
(författare)
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High-throughput imaging of heterogeneous cell organelles with an X-ray laser
- 2014
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Ingår i: Nature Photonics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1749-4885 .- 1749-4893. ; 8:12, s. 943-949
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We overcome two of the most daunting challenges in single-particle diffractive imaging: collecting many high-quality diffraction patterns on a small amount of sample and separating components from mixed samples. We demonstrate this on carboxysomes, which are polyhedral cell organelles that vary in size and facilitate up to 40% of Earth's carbon fixation. A new aerosol sample-injector allowed us to record 70,000 low-noise diffraction patterns in 12 min with the Linac Coherent Light Source running at 120 Hz. We separate different structures directly from the diffraction data and show that the size distribution is preserved during sample delivery. We automate phase retrieval and avoid reconstruction artefacts caused by missing modes. We attain the highest-resolution reconstructions on the smallest single biological objects imaged with an X-ray laser to date. These advances lay the foundations for accurate, high-throughput structure determination by flash-diffractive imaging and offer a means to study structure and structural heterogeneity in biology and elsewhere.
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| 5. |
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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| 6. |
- van der Schot, Gijs, et al.
(författare)
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Imaging single cells in a beam of live cyanobacteria with an X-ray laser
- 2015
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There exists a conspicuous gap of knowledge about the organization of life at mesoscopic levels. Ultra-fast coherent diffractive imaging with X-ray free-electron lasers can probe structures at the relevant length scales and may reach sub-nanometer resolution on micron-sized living cells. Here we show that we can introduce a beam of aerosolised cyanobacteria into the focus of the Linac Coherent Light Source and record diffraction patterns from individual living cells at very low noise levels and at high hit ratios. We obtain two-dimensional projection images directly from the diffraction patterns, and present the results as synthetic X-ray Nomarski images calculated from the complex-valued reconstructions. We further demonstrate that it is possible to record diffraction data to nanometer resolution on live cells with X-ray lasers. Extension to sub-nanometer resolution is within reach, although improvements in pulse parameters and X-ray area detectors will be necessary to unlock this potential.
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| 7. |
- van der Schot, Gijs, et al.
(författare)
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Open data set of live cyanobacterial cells imaged using an X-ray laser
- 2016
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Ingår i: Scientific Data. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2052-4463. ; 3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Structural studies on living cells by conventional methods are limited to low resolution because radiation damage kills cells long before the necessary dose for high resolution can be delivered. X-ray free-electron lasers circumvent this problem by outrunning key damage processes with an ultra-short and extremely bright coherent X-ray pulse. Diffraction-before-destruction experiments provide high-resolution data from cells that are alive when the femtosecond X-ray pulse traverses the sample. This paper presents two data sets from micron-sized cyanobacteria obtained at the Linac Coherent Light Source, containing a total of 199,000 diffraction patterns. Utilizing this type of diffraction data will require the development of new analysis methods and algorithms for studying structure and structural variability in large populations of cells and to create abstract models. Such studies will allow us to understand living cells and populations of cells in new ways. New X-ray lasers, like the European XFEL, will produce billions of pulses per day, and could open new areas in structural sciences.
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| 8. |
- Weinstein, John N., et al.
(författare)
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The cancer genome atlas pan-cancer analysis project
- 2013
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-1718 .- 1061-4036. ; 45:10, s. 1113-1120
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) Research Network has profiled and analyzed large numbers of human tumors to discover molecular aberrations at the DNA, RNA, protein and epigenetic levels. The resulting rich data provide a major opportunity to develop an integrated picture of commonalities, differences and emergent themes across tumor lineages. The Pan-Cancer initiative compares the first 12 tumor types profiled by TCGA. Analysis of the molecular aberrations and their functional roles across tumor types will teach us how to extend therapies effective in one cancer type to others with a similar genomic profile. © 2013 Nature America, Inc. All rights reserved.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Nebel, Daniel, et al.
(författare)
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1α,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 promotes osteogenic activity and downregulates proinflammatory cytokine expression in human periodontal ligament cells
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Periodontal Research. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0022-3484 .- 1600-0765. ; 50:5, s. 666-673
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background and ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to assess the impact of 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 (vitamin D3) on osteogenic and inflammatory properties of human periodontal ligament (PDL) cells and investigate underlying mechanisms. Material and MethodsHuman PDL cells, obtained from four subjects, were stimulated with vitamin D3 for 4-48h. The bone markers osteopontin and osteocalcin and proinflammatory cytokine/chemokine expression was determined by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Cytokine and chemokine expression was determined after stimulation with the inflammation promoter lipopolysaccharide (LPS) in the presence or absence of vitamin D3. Alkaline phosphatase activity was assessed using p-nitrophenylphosphate substrate. ResultsTreatment with 30ng/mL of vitamin D3, corresponding to an optimal plasma concentration of vitamin D, for 24h had no effect on PDL cell number and morphology but increased PDL cell osteopontin and osteocalcin mRNA expression by about 70 and 40%, respectively, and, moreover, treatment with vitamin D3 for 48h enhanced PDL cell alkaline phosphatase activity by about two times showing that vitamin D3 exerts pro-osteogenic effects in human PDL cells. Stimulation with LPS (1g/mL) for 4h increased PDL cell interleukin (IL)-6 cytokine and chemokine ligand 1 (CXCL1) chemokine mRNA expression several fold. The LPS-induced increase in IL-6 and CXCL1 transcripts was attenuated by vitamin D3 (30ng/mL). Treatment with vitamin D3 (3-300ng/mL) for 24h reduced the LPS-evoked increase in PDL cell IL-6 protein by about 50%. Vitamin D3 (30ng/mL) had no effect on LPS-induced IL-1 and MCP-1 mRNA expression. ConclusionsVitamin D3 promotes osteogenic differentiation but also downregulates inflammation promoter-induced IL-6 cytokine and CXCL1 chemokine expression in human PDL cells, suggesting that vitamin D3 both stimulates bone regeneration and antagonizes inflammation in human periodontal tissue.
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