| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 3. |
- Lundgren, Markus, et al.
(författare)
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Analgesic antipyretic use among young children in the TEDDY study : No association with islet autoimmunity
- 2017
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Ingår i: BMC Pediatrics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1471-2431. ; 17:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The use of analgesic antipyretics (ANAP) in children have long been a matter of controversy. Data on their practical use on an individual level has, however, been scarce. There are indications of possible effects on glucose homeostasis and immune function related to the use of ANAP. The aim of this study was to analyze patterns of analgesic antipyretic use across the clinical centers of The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) prospective cohort study and test if ANAP use was a risk factor for islet autoimmunity. Methods: Data were collected for 8542 children in the first 2.5 years of life. Incidence was analyzed using logistic regression with country and first child status as independent variables. Holm's procedure was used to adjust for multiplicity of intercountry comparisons. Time to autoantibody seroconversion was analyzed using a Cox proportional hazards model with cumulative analgesic use as primary time dependent covariate of interest. For each categorization, a generalized estimating equation (GEE) approach was used. Results: Higher prevalence of ANAP use was found in the U.S. (95.7%) and Sweden (94.8%) compared to Finland (78.1%) and Germany (80.2%). First-born children were more commonly given acetaminophen (OR 1.26; 95% CI 1.07, 1.49; p = 0.007) but less commonly Non-Steroidal Anti-inflammatory Drugs (NSAID) (OR 0.86; 95% CI 0.78, 0.95; p = 0.002). Acetaminophen and NSAID use in the absence of fever and infection was more prevalent in the U.S. (40.4%; 26.3% of doses) compared to Sweden, Finland and Germany (p < 0.001). Acetaminophen or NSAID use before age 2.5 years did not predict development of islet autoimmunity by age 6 years (HR 1.02, 95% CI 0.99-1.09; p = 0.27). In a sub-analysis, acetaminophen use in children with fever weakly predicted development of islet autoimmunity by age 3 years (HR 1.05; 95% CI 1.01-1.09; p = 0.024). Conclusions: ANAP use in young children is not a risk factor for seroconversion by age 6 years. Use of ANAP is widespread in young children, and significantly higher in the U.S. compared to other study sites, where use is common also in absence of fever and infection.
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| 4. |
- Zamora, Juan Carlos, et al.
(författare)
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Considerations and consequences of allowing DNA sequence data as types of fungal taxa
- 2018
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Ingår i: IMA Fungus. - : INT MYCOLOGICAL ASSOC. - 2210-6340 .- 2210-6359. ; 9:1, s. 167-185
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Nomenclatural type definitions are one of the most important concepts in biological nomenclature. Being physical objects that can be re-studied by other researchers, types permanently link taxonomy (an artificial agreement to classify biological diversity) with nomenclature (an artificial agreement to name biological diversity). Two proposals to amend the International Code of Nomenclature for algae, fungi, and plants (ICN), allowing DNA sequences alone (of any region and extent) to serve as types of taxon names for voucherless fungi (mainly putative taxa from environmental DNA sequences), have been submitted to be voted on at the 11th International Mycological Congress (Puerto Rico, July 2018). We consider various genetic processes affecting the distribution of alleles among taxa and find that alleles may not consistently and uniquely represent the species within which they are contained. Should the proposals be accepted, the meaning of nomenclatural types would change in a fundamental way from physical objects as sources of data to the data themselves. Such changes are conducive to irreproducible science, the potential typification on artefactual data, and massive creation of names with low information content, ultimately causing nomenclatural instability and unnecessary work for future researchers that would stall future explorations of fungal diversity. We conclude that the acceptance of DNA sequences alone as types of names of taxa, under the terms used in the current proposals, is unnecessary and would not solve the problem of naming putative taxa known only from DNA sequences in a scientifically defensible way. As an alternative, we highlight the use of formulas for naming putative taxa (candidate taxa) that do not require any modification of the ICN.
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| 5. |
- Baran, J. D., et al.
(författare)
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Theoretical and experimental comparison of SnPc, PbPc, and CoPc adsorption on Ag(111)
- 2010
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Ingår i: Physical Review B (Condensed Matter and Materials Physics). - 1098-0121 .- 1550-235X. ; 81:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A combination of normal-incidence x-ray standing-wave (NIXSW) spectroscopy, x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), scanning tunneling microscopy (STM), and density-functional theory (DFT) has been used to investigate the interaction of a number of phthalocyanine molecules (specifically, SnPc, PbPc, and CoPc) with the Ag(111) surface. The metal-surface distances predicted by the DFT calculations for SnPc/Ag(111) (2.48 angstrom) and CoPc/Ag(111) (2.88 angstrom) are in good agreement with our NIXSW experimental results for these systems (2.31 +/- 0.09 and 2.90 +/- 0.05 angstrom, respectively). Good agreement is also found between calculated partial density-of-states plots and STM images of CoPc on Ag(111). Although the DFT and Pb 4f NIXSW results for the Pb-Ag(111) distance are similarly in apparently good agreement, the Pb 4f core-level data suggest that a chemical reaction between PbPc and Ag(111) occurs due to the annealing procedure used in our experiments and that the similarity of the DFT and Pb 4f NIXSW values for the Pb-Ag(111) distance is likely to be fortuitous. We interpret the Pb 4f XPS data as indicating that the Pb atom can detach from the PbPc molecule when it is adsorbed in the "Pb-down" position, leading to the formation of a Pb-Ag alloy and the concomitant reduction in Pb from a Pb2+ state (in bulklike films of PbPc) to Pb-0. In contrast to SnPc, neither PbPc nor CoPc forms a well-ordered monolayer on Ag(111) via the deposition and annealing procedures we have used. Our DFT calculations show that each of the phthalocyanine molecules donate charge to the silver surface, and that back donation from Ag to the metal atom (Co, Sn, or Pb) is only significant for CoPc.
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| 6. |
- Larsson, Andreas, et al.
(författare)
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Modelling of Carbon Nanotube Catalytic Growth
- 2008
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) have; due to their remarkable mechanical; electronic and thermal properties; many suggested uses; and have even been demonstrated as interconnects and nano-transistors in laboratory built devices [1-4]. The reason CNTs are not yet incorporated into electronics is due to growth control and placement issues. With present day state-of-the-art techniques it is not possible to grow CNTs with only one property (i.e. either all metallic or all semiconducting); which presents the first and principal hurdle for the utilisation of CNTs in semiconductor industry. It is; however; possible to grow CNTs of a certain type (multi-walled; double-walled; or single walled); within a rather narrow diameter distribution. It is also well understood how the orientation of the honey-comb structure relative to the CNT axis determines the property of the CNT itself. The problem lies in realizing growth of CNTs with control over this internal graphene structuring. We have performed first-principles calculations of how single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNTs) bond with different metal nanoparticles explaining why the traditional catalysts (Fe; Co; Ni) are more successful than other metals (Cu; Pd; Au) [5]; and how this realization relates to new nanocomposite catalyst particles (Cu/Mo) [6]. We will present our contribution to understanding the mechanism of catalytic CNT growth; since it is only through better knowledge that property-controlled growth of CNTs can be achieved
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
- Herman, Stephanie, et al.
(författare)
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Integration of magnetic resonance imaging and protein and metabolite CSF measurements to enable early diagnosis of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis
- 2018
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Ingår i: Theranostics. - : Ivyspring International Publisher. - 1838-7640. ; 8:16, s. 4477-4490
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Molecular networks in neurological diseases are complex. Despite this fact, contemporary biomarkers are in most cases interpreted in isolation, leading to a significant loss of information and power. We present an analytical approach to scrutinize and combine information from biomarkers originating from multiple sources with the aim of discovering a condensed set of biomarkers that in combination could distinguish the progressive degenerative phenotype of multiple sclerosis (SPMS) from the relapsing-remitting phenotype (RRMS). Methods: Clinical and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data were integrated with data from protein and metabolite measurements of cerebrospinal fluid, and a method was developed to sift through all the variables to establish a small set of highly informative measurements. This prospective study included 16 SPMS patients, 30 RRMS patients and 10 controls. Protein concentrations were quantitated with multiplexed fluorescent bead-based immunoassays and ELISA. The metabolome was recorded using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. Clinical follow-up data of the SPMS patients were used to assess disease progression and development of disability. Results: Eleven variables were in combination able to distinguish SPMS from RRMS patients with high confidence superior to any single measurement. The identified variables consisted of three MRI variables: the size of the spinal cord and the third ventricle and the total number of T1 hypointense lesions; six proteins: galectin-9, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1), transforming growth factor alpha (TGF-alpha), tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha), soluble CD40L (sCD40L) and platelet-derived growth factor AA (PDGF-AA); and two metabolites: 20 beta-dihydrocortisol (20 beta-DHF) and indolepyruvate. The proteins myelin basic protein (MBP) and macrophage-derived chemokine (MDC), as well as the metabolites 20 beta-DHF and 5,6-dihydroxyprostaglandin F1a (5,6-DH-PGF1), were identified as potential biomarkers of disability progression. Conclusion: Our study demonstrates, in a limited but well-defined and data-rich cohort, the importance and value of combining multiple biomarkers to aid diagnostics and track disease progression.
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| 9. |
- Larsson, Andreas, et al.
(författare)
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Quantitative studies of the binding of the class II PapG adhesin from uropathogenic Escherichia coli to oligosaccharides.
- 2003
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Ingår i: Bioorganic & Medicinal Chemistry. - : Elsevier. - 0968-0896 .- 1464-3391. ; 11:10, s. 2255-2261
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Binding of the class II PapG adhesin, found at the tip of filamentous pili on Escherichia coli, to the carbohydrate moiety of globoseries glycolipids in the human kidney is a key step in development of pyelonephritis, a severe form of urinary tract infection. An assay based on surface plasmon resonance for quantification of the binding of the class II PapG adhesin to oligosaccharides has been developed. Using this assay dissociation constants ranging from 80 to 540 M were determined for binding of the PapG adhesin to di-pentasaccharide fragments from the globoseries of glycolipids. A series of galabiose derivatives, modified at the anomeric position, O-2′ or O-3′, was also investigated. The anomeric position appeared to be the most promising for development of improved inhibitors of PapG-mediated adhesion of E. coli. p-Methoxyphenyl galabioside was found to be most potent (Kd=140 M), and binds to PapG almost as well as the Forssman pentasaccharide.
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| 10. |
- Larsson, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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Role of catalysts in dehydrogenation of MgH2 nanoclusters
- 2008
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 105:24, s. 8227-8231
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A fundamental understanding of the role of catalysts in dehydrogenation of MgH2 nanoclusters is provided by carrying out first-principles calculations based on density functional theory. It is shown that the transition metal atoms Ti, V, Fe, and Ni not only lower desorption energies significantly but also continue to attract at least four hydrogen atoms even when the total hydrogen content of the cluster decreases. In particular, Fe is found to migrate from the surface sites to the interior sites during the dehydrogenation process, releasing more hydrogen as it diffuses This diffusion mechanism may account for the fact that a small amount of catalysts is sufficient to improve the kinetics of MgH2. which is essential for the use of this material for hydrogen storage in fuel-cell applications.
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