| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Razavi, Homie A., et al.
(författare)
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Hepatitis D double reflex testing of all hepatitis B carriers in low-HBV- and high-HBV/HDV-prevalence countries
- 2023
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Ingår i: JOURNAL OF HEPATOLOGY. - : Elsevier. - 0168-8278 .- 1600-0641. ; 79:2, s. 576-580
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Hepatitis D virus (HDV) infection occurs as a coinfection with hepatitis B and increases the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma, decompensated cirrhosis, and mortality compared to hepatitis B virus (HBV) monoinfection. Reliable estimates of the prevalence of HDV infection and disease burden are essential to formulate strategies to find coinfected individuals more effectively and efficiently. The global prevalence of HBV infections was estimated to be 262,240,000 in 2021. Only 1,994,000 of the HBV in-fections were newly diagnosed in 2021, with more than half of the new diagnoses made in China. Our initial estimates indicated a much lower prevalence of HDV antibody (anti-HDV) and HDV RNA positivity than previously reported in published studies. Ac-curate estimates of HDV prevalence are needed. The most effective method to generate estimates of the prevalence of anti-HDV and HDV RNA positivity and to find undiagnosed individuals at the national level is to implement double reflex testing. This re-quires anti-HDV testing of all hepatitis B surface antigen-positive individuals and HDV RNA testing of all anti-HDV-positive in-dividuals. This strategy is manageable for healthcare systems since the number of newly diagnosed HBV cases is low. At the global level, a comprehensive HDV screening strategy would require only 1,994,000 HDV antibody tests and less than 89,000 HDV PCR tests. Double reflex testing is the preferred strategy in countries with a low prevalence of HBV and those with a high prevalence of both HBV and HDV. For example, in the European Union and North America only 35,000 and 22,000 cases, respectively, will require anti-HDV testing annually.
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| 5. |
- Razavi-Shearer, Devin M., et al.
(författare)
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Adjusted estimate of the prevalence of hepatitis delta virus in 25 countries and territories
- 2024
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Ingår i: JOURNAL OF HEPATOLOGY. - 0168-8278 .- 1600-0641. ; 80:2, s. 232-242
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background & Aims: Hepatitis delta virus (HDV) is a satellite RNA virus that requires the hepatitis B virus (HBV) for assembly and propagation. Individuals infected with HDV progress to advanced liver disease faster than HBV-monoinfected individuals. Recent studies have estimated the global prevalence of anti-HDV antibodies among the HBV-infected population to be 5-15%. This study aimed to better understand HDV prevalence at the population level in 25 countries/territories. Methods: We conducted a literature review to determine the prevalence of anti-HDV and HDV RNA in hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-positive individuals in 25 countries/territories. Virtual meetings were held with experts from each setting to discuss the findings and collect unpublished data. Data were weighted for patient segments and regional heterogeneity to estimate the prevalence in the HBV-infected population. The findings were then combined with The Polaris Observatory HBV data to estimate the anti-HDV and HDV RNA prevalence in each country/territory at the population level. Results: After adjusting for geographical distribution, disease stage and special populations, the anti-HDV prevalence among the HBsAg+ population changed from the literature estimate in 19 countries. The highest anti-HDV prevalence was 60.1% in Mongolia. Once adjusted for the size of the HBsAg+ population and HDV RNA positivity rate, China had the highest absolute number of HDV RNA+ cases. Conclusions: We found substantially lower HDV prevalence than previously reported, as prior meta-analyses primarily focused on studies conducted in groups/regions that have a higher probability of HBV infection: tertiary care centers, specific risk groups or geographical regions. There is large uncertainty in HDV prevalence estimates. The implementation of reflex testing would improve estimates, while also allowing earlier linkage to care for HDV RNA+ individuals. The logistical and economic burden of reflex testing on the health system would be limited, as only HBsAg+ cases would be screened.
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| 6. |
- Bollerup, Annemarie R, et al.
(författare)
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Access to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in the WHO European Region 2003-2005
- 2008
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Ingår i: Scandinavian Journal of Public Health. - : SAGE Publications. - 1651-1905 .- 1403-4948. ; 36:2, s. 183-189
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: To assess changes in access to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) between the end of 2002 and the end of 2005, and to review the capacity for further HAART scale-up in the then 52 Member States of the WHO European Region. Methods: Analysis of data from four surveys evaluating access to HAART, supplemented by regional estimates of the number of people receiving HAART. Changes in access to HAART are evaluated in terms of changes in the number of people receiving HAART over time and changes in country-level HAART coverage. Results: During 2003-2005, the total number of individuals receiving HAART increased by an estimated 101,000, from 242,000 to 343,000 (a 42% increase); 85,000 were in the west region (a 36% increase) and 16,000 in the centre and east regions (a 229% increase). The number of countries providing "high" coverage with HAART (>75% of those in need receiving it) increased from 29 to 38, and the number of countries providing no HAART declined from eight to four. Conclusions: Despite high and increasing coverage in many European countries, access to HAART remained inequitable in terms of geographical location. By the end of 2005, all countries in the west provided "high" HAART coverage as compared with half of countries in the centre and east. Six east countries still provided poor or no HAART coverage. Countries must address how to further equitably increase the number of people receiving HAART.
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| 7. |
- Brunstein, Claudio G, et al.
(författare)
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Effect of Conditioning Regimen Dose Reduction in Obese Patients Undergoing Autologous Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation
- 2019
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Ingår i: Biology of blood and marrow transplantation. - : Elsevier BV. - 1083-8791 .- 1523-6536. ; 25:3, s. 480-487
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Data are limited on whether to adjust high-dose chemotherapy before autologous hematopoietic cell transplant (autoHCT) in obese patients. This study explores the effects of dose adjustment on the outcomes of obese patients, defined as body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30 kg/m2. Dose adjustment was defined as a reduction in standard dosing ≥ 20%, based on ideal, reported dosing and actual weights. We included 2 groups of US patients who had received autoHCT between 2008 and 2014. Specifically, we included patients with multiple myeloma (MM, n = 1696) treated with high-dose melphalan and patients with Hodgkin or non-Hodgkin lymphomas (n = 781) who received carmustine, etoposide, cytarabine, and melphalan conditioning. Chemotherapy dose was adjusted in 1324 patients (78%) with MM and 608 patients (78%) with lymphoma. Age, sex, BMI, race, performance score, comorbidity index, and disease features (stage at diagnosis, disease status, and time to transplant) were similar between dose groups. In multivariate analyses for MM, adjusting for melphalan dose and for center effect had no impact on overall survival (P = .894) and treatment-related mortality (TRM) (P = .62), progression (P = .12), and progression-free survival (PFS; P = .178). In multivariate analyses for lymphoma, adjusting chemotherapy doses did not affect survival (P = .176), TRM (P = .802), relapse (P = .633), or PFS (P = .812). No center effect was observed in lymphoma. This study demonstrates that adjusting chemotherapy dose before autoHCT in obese patients with MM and lymphoma does not influence mortality. These results do not support adjusting chemotherapy dose in this population.
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| 8. |
- DeFilipp, Zachariah, et al.
(författare)
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Maintenance Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors Following Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation for Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia : A Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research Study
- 2020
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Ingår i: Biology of blood and marrow transplantation. - : Elsevier. - 1083-8791 .- 1523-6536. ; 26:3, s. 472-479
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- It remains unknown whether the administration of tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) targeting BCR-ABL1 after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is associated with improved outcomes for patients with chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML). In this registry study, we analyzed clinical outcomes of 390 adult patients with CML who underwent transplantation between 2007 and 2014 and received maintenance TKI following HCT (n = 89) compared with no TKI maintenance (n = 301), as reported to the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research. All patients received TKI therapy before HCT. The majority of patients had a disease status of first chronic phase at HCT (n = 240; 62%). The study was conducted as a landmark analysis, excluding patients who died, relapsed, had chronic graft-versus-host disease, or were censored before day +100 following HCT. Of the 89 patients who received TKI maintenance, 77 (87%) received a single TKI and the other 12 (13%) received multiple sequential TKIs. The most common TKIs used for maintenance were dasatinib (n = 50), imatinib (n = 27), and nilotinib (n = 27). As measured from day +100, the adjusted estimates for 5-year relapse (maintenance, 35% versus no maintenance, 26%; P = .11), leukemia-free survival (maintenance, 42% versus no maintenance, 44%; P = .65), or overall survival (maintenance, 61% versus no maintenance, 57%; P = .61) did not differ significantly between patients receiving TKI maintenance or no maintenance. These results remained unchanged in multivariate analysis and were not modified by disease status before transplantation. In conclusion, our data from this day +100 landmark analysis do not demonstrate a significant impact of maintenance TKI therapy on clinical outcomes. The optimal approach to TKI administration in the post-transplantation setting in patients with CML remains undetermined.
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| 9. |
- Dhakal, Binod, et al.
(författare)
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Hematopoietic cell transplantation utilization and outcomes for primary plasma cell leukemia in the current era
- 2020
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Ingår i: Leukemia. - : SPRINGERNATURE. - 0887-6924 .- 1476-5551. ; 34:12, s. 3338-3347
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The outcomes of patients with primary plasma cell leukemia (pPCL) after undergoing hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) in the novel agent era are unknown. We report outcomes of 348 patients with pPCL receiving autologous (auto-) HCT (n = 277) and allogeneic (allo-) HCT (n = 71) between 2008 and 2015. Median age was 60 years and 56 years for auto- and allo-HCT respectively. For auto-HCT, the 4-year outcomes were: non-relapse mortality (NRM) 7% (4-11%), relapse (REL) 76% (69-82%), progression-free survival (PFS) 17% (13-23%), and overall survival (OS) 28% (22-35%). Karnofsky performance status (KPS) > 90 and >= very good partial response (VGPR) predicted superior OS in multi-variate analysis for auto-HCT. For allo-HCT, the 4-year outcomes were: NRM 12% (5-21%), REL 69% (56-81%), PFS 19% (10-31%), and OS 31% (19-44%). Compared with prior CIBMTR pPCL patients (1995-2006), inferior survival was noted in the current cohort (3-year OS, 39% vs. 38% in allo-HCT, and 62% vs. 35% in auto-HCT) respectively. However, we noted an increased HCT utilization, from 12% (7-21%) in 1995 to 46% (34-64%) in 2009 using SEER data (available till 2009). Despite modern induction translating to higher proportion receiving HCT, the outcomes remain poor in pPCL patients, mainly derived by high relapse rates post-HCT.
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| 10. |
- Donoghoe, Martin C., et al.
(författare)
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Access to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for injecting drug users in the WHO European Region 2002-2004
- 2007
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Ingår i: International Journal of Drug Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 1873-4758 .- 0955-3959. ; 18:4, s. 271-280
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Providing equitable access to highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) to injecting drug users (IDUs) is both feasible and desirable. Given the evidence that IDUs can adhere to HAART as well as non-IDUs and the imperative to provide universal and equitable access to HlV/AlDS treatment for all who need it, here we examine whether IDUs in the 52 countries in the WHO European Region have equitable access to HAART and whether that access has changed over time between 2002 and 2004. We consider regional and Country differences in IDU HAART access; examine preliminary data regarding the injecting status of those initiating HAART and the use of opioid substitution therapy among HAART patients, and discuss how HAART might be better delivered to injecting drug users. Our data adds to the evidence that IDUs in Europe have poor and inequitable access to HAART, with only a relatively small improvement in access between 2002 and 2004. Regional and country comparisons reveal that inequities in IDU access to HAART are worst in eastern European countries. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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