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- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 3. |
- Han, Yong-Hee, et al.
(författare)
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Muscular Development in Urechis unicinctus (Echiura, Annelida)
- 2020
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Ingår i: International Journal of Molecular Sciences. - : MDPI. - 1661-6596 .- 1422-0067. ; 21:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Echiura is one of the most intriguing major subgroups of phylum Annelida because, unlike most other annelids, echiuran adults lack metameric body segmentation. Urechis unicinctus lives in U-shape burrows of soft sediments. Little is known about the molecular mechanisms underlying the development of U. unicinctus. Herein, we overviewed the developmental process from zygote to juvenile U. unicinctus using immunohistochemistry and F-actin staining for the nervous and muscular systems, respectively. Through F-actin staining, we found that muscle fibers began to form in the trochophore phase and that muscles for feeding were produced first. Subsequently, in the segmentation larval stage, the transversal muscle was formed in the shape of a ring in an anterior-to-posterior direction with segment formation, as well as a ventromedian muscle for the formation of a ventral nerve cord. After that, many muscle fibers were produced along the entire body and formed the worm-shaped larva. Finally, we investigated the spatiotemporal expression of Uun_st-mhc, Uun_troponin I, Uun_calponin, and Uun_twist genes found in U. unicinctus. During embryonic development, the striated and smooth muscle genes were co-expressed in the same region. However, the adult body wall muscles showed differential gene expression of each muscle layer. The results of this study will provide the basis for the understanding of muscle differentiation in Echiura.
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| 4. |
- Laj, Paolo, et al.
(författare)
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A global analysis of climate-relevant aerosol properties retrieved from the network of Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) near-surface observatories
- 2020
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Measurement Techniques. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1867-1381 .- 1867-8548. ; 13:8, s. 4353-4392
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aerosol particles are essential constituents of the Earth's atmosphere, impacting the earth radiation balance directly by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, and indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei. In contrast to most greenhouse gases, aerosol particles have short atmospheric residence times, resulting in a highly heterogeneous distribution in space and time. There is a clear need to document this variability at regional scale through observations involving, in particular, the in situ near-surface segment of the atmospheric observation system. This paper will provide the widest effort so far to document variability of climate-relevant in situ aerosol properties (namely wavelength dependent particle light scattering and absorption coefficients, particle number concentration and particle number size distribution) from all sites connected to the Global Atmosphere Watch network. High-quality data from almost 90 stations worldwide have been collected and controlled for quality and are reported for a reference year in 2017, providing a very extended and robust view of the variability of these variables worldwide. The range of variability observed worldwide for light scattering and absorption coefficients, single-scattering albedo, and particle number concentration are presented together with preliminary information on their long-term trends and comparison with model simulation for the different stations. The scope of the present paper is also to provide the necessary suite of information, including data provision procedures, quality control and analysis, data policy, and usage of the ground-based aerosol measurement network. It delivers to users of the World Data Centre on Aerosol, the required confidence in data products in the form of a fully characterized value chain, including uncertainty estimation and requirements for contributing to the global climate monitoring system.
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- Zaniew, Marcin, et al.
(författare)
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Long-term renal outcome in children with OCRL mutations : Retrospective analysis of a large international cohort
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nephrology Dialysis Transplantation. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0931-0509 .- 1460-2385. ; 33:1, s. 85-94
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background. Lowe syndrome (LS) and Dent-2 disease (DD2) are disorders associated with mutations in the OCRL gene and characterized by progressive chronic kidney disease (CKD). Here, we aimed to investigate the long-term renal outcome and identify potential determinants of CKD and its progression in children with these tubulopathies. Methods. Retrospective analyses were conducted of clinical and genetic data in a cohort of 106 boys (LS: 88 and DD2: 18). For genotype-phenotype analysis, we grouped mutations according to their type and localization. To investigate progression of CKD we used survival analysis by Kaplan-Meier method using stage 3 CKD as the end-point. Results. Median estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was lower in the LS group compared with DD2 (58.8 versus 87.4 mL/min/1.73 m2, P < 0.01). CKD stage II-V was found in 82% of patients, of these 58% and 28% had moderate-to-severe CKD in LS and DD2, respectively. Three patients (3%), all with LS, developed stage 5 of CKD. Survival analysis showed that LS was also associated with a faster CKD progression than DD2 (P < 0.01). On multivariate analysis, eGFR was dependent only on age (b0.46, P < 0.001). Localization, but not type of mutations, tended to correlate with eGFR. There was also no significant association between presence of nephrocalcinosis, hypercalciuria, proteinuria and number of adverse clinical events and CKD. Conclusions. CKD is commonly found in children with OCRL mutations. CKD progression was strongly related to the underlying diagnosis but did not associate with clinical parameters, such as nephrocalcinosis or proteinuria.
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