| 1. |
- Andersson, Fredrik N G, et al.
(författare)
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Irish GDP between the Famine and the First World War : estimates based on a dynamic factor model
- 2019
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Ingår i: European Review of Economic History. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1474-0044 .- 1361-4916. ; 23:1, s. 50-71
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A major issue in Irish economic history is the lack of national accounts before the interwar period. This paper constructs new annual estimates of real GDP between 1842 and 1913 based on a novel two-stage econometric approach. Our results show that while living standards approximately tripled in this period, development was uneven with contractions in economic activity not only during the Great Famine but also between the late 1890s and the First World War. As a proof of concept, we also apply our methodology to Swedish data. The resulting estimates closely match existing historical national accounts.
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| 2. |
- Esteves, Rui, et al.
(författare)
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The Aftermath of Sovereign Debt Crises: A Narrative Approach
- 2021
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Default is as old as sovereign debt. Since 1820, countries that issued sovereign debt have spent 18% of time in a state of default. Despite the scale of the problem, the causes and consequences of defaults are still imperfectly understood. In this paper we quantify the aggregate cost of defaults, based on a large panel of 50 sovereigns between 1870 and 2010. Since defaults are endogenous to the business cycle, we use the narrative approach to identify plausibly exogenous debt crises. Our estimates yield significant and persistent costs of defaults starting at 1.6% of GDP and peaking at 3.3% before reverting to trend five years after a debt event. Moreover, we identify a large heterogeneity of costs by the cause of default. Higher costs are associated with defaults initiated by negative supply shocks, political crises, or adverse terms of trade. In contrast, domestic demand shocks have a moderate effect, quickly reversed. Despite working with a large sample, we document how average estimates of default costs can be sensitive to different dating and definitions of defaults.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Kenny, Seán, et al.
(författare)
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An Annual Index of Irish Industrial Production, 1800-1913
- 2023
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Ingår i: Economic History Review. - : Wiley. - 1468-0289 .- 0013-0117. ; 76:1, s. 283-304
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We assemble the Irish industrial data currently available for the years 1800-1921, the period during which the entire island was in a political Union with Great Britain, and construct an annual index of Irish industrial output for 1800-1913. We also construct a new industrial price index. Irish industrial output grew by an average of 1.3 per cent per annum between 1800 and the outbreak of the First World War. Industrial growth was slightly slower than previously thought, especially during the two decades immediately preceding the Famine. While Ireland did not experience absolute deindustrialization either before the Famine or afterwards, its industrial growth was disappointing when considered in a comparative perspective.
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| 5. |
- Kenny, Sean, et al.
(författare)
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An Annual Index of Irish Industrial Production, 1800-1921
- 2020
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- We construct an annual index of Irish industrial output for 1800-1921, the period during which the entire island was in a political Union with Great Britain. We also construct a new industrial price index. Irish industrial output grew by an average of 1.4 per cent per annum over the period as a whole, and by 1.8 per cent per annum between 1800 and the outbreak of World War I. Industrial growth was more rapid than previously thought before the Famine, and slower afterwards. While Ireland did not experience deindustrialization either before the Famine or afterwards, its industrial growth was disappointing when considered in a comparative perspective.
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| 6. |
- Kenny, Seán, et al.
(författare)
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Monetary Aggregates for Ireland, 1840-1921
- 2018
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Ingår i: Economic History Review. - : Wiley. - 1468-0289 .- 0013-0117. ; 71:4, s. 1249-1269
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This article constructs new monetary aggregates for Ireland between 1840 and 1921.Three major findings are gleaned from the data. First, we find that the degreeof monetization on the eve of the Famine was comparatively high. Second, wefind an unprecedented monetary contraction during the Famine. Third, in contrastto previous research, we find that the failure of the Munster Bank in 1885 hadramifications for confidence in, and the stability of, the banking system.
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| 7. |
- Kenny, Seán, et al.
(författare)
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The Macroeconomic Effects of Banking Crises : Evidence from the United Kingdom, 1750-1938
- 2017
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of UK banking crises over the period 1750 to 1938. We construct a new annual banking crisis series using bank failure rate data, which suggests that the incidence of banking crises was every 32 years. Using our new series and a narrative approach to identify exogenous banking crises, we find that industrial production contracts by 8.2 per cent in the year following a crisis. This finding is robust to a battery of checks, including different VAR specifications, different thresholds for the crisis indicator, and the use of a capital-weighted bank failure rate.
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| 8. |
- Kenny, Sean, et al.
(författare)
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The Macroeconomic Effects of Banking Crises: Evidence from the United Kingdom, 1750–1938
- 2021
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Ingår i: Explorations in Economic History. - : Elsevier BV. - 0014-4983. ; 79:January
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of banking crises in the United Kingdom between 1750 and 1938. We construct a new annual chronology of banking crises, which we define as episodes of runs and panics combined with significant, geographically-dispersed failures and suspensions. Using a vector autoregression, we find that banking crises are associated with short, sharp and significant drops in economic growth. Using the narrative record to identify plausibly exogenous variation, we show that this finding is robust to potential endogeneity.
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| 9. |
- Lennard, Jason, et al.
(författare)
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Banks and the Economy : Evidence from the Irish Bank Strike of 1966
- 2024
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This paper studies a natural experiment in macroeconomic history: the Irish bank strike of 1966, which led to the closure of the major commercial banks for three months. We use synthetic control to estimate how the economy would have evolved had the strike not happened. We find that economic activity slowed, deviating by 6% from the counter-factual path. Narrative evidence not only supports this finding, but also depicts the struggles of households and firms managing a credit crunch, a liquidity shock, and rising transaction costs. This case study highlights the importance of banks for economic performance.
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| 10. |
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