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- Lesnyak, O., et al.
(författare)
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A surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic
- 2020
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Ingår i: Archives of Osteoporosis. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1862-3522 .- 1862-3514. ; 15:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The hip fracture rates from Kazakhstan were used to create a surrogate FRAX (R) model for the Kyrgyz Republic. Introduction The International Society for Clinical Densitometry and International Osteoporosis Foundation recommend utilizing a surrogate FRAX model, based on the country-specific risk of death, and fracture data based on a country where fracture rates are considered to be representative of the index country. Objective This paper describes a surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic. Methods The FRAX model used the incidence of hip fracture from the neighbouring country of Kazakhstan and the death risk for the Kyrgyz Republic. Results Compared with the model for Kazakhstan, the surrogate model gave somewhat higher 10-year fracture probabilities for men between 60 and 80 years of age and lower probabilities for men above the age of 80. For women the probabilities were similar up to the age of 75-80 years and then lower. There were very close correlations in fracture probabilities between the surrogate and authentic models (1.00) so that the use of the Kyrgyz model had little impact on the rank order of risk. It was estimated that 2752 hip fractures arose in 2015 in individuals over the age of 50 years in the Kyrgyz Republic, with a predicted increase by 207% to 8435 in 2050. Conclusion The surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic provides the opportunity to determine fracture probability among the Kyrgyz population and help guide decisions about treatment.
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- Issayeva, S, et al.
(författare)
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Epidemiology of osteoporotic fracture in Kazakhstan and development of a country specific FRAX model.
- 2020
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Ingår i: Archives of osteoporosis. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1862-3514 .- 1862-3522. ; 15:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Retrospective and prospective population-based survey in a region of the Republic of Kazakhstan determined the incidence of fractures at the hip, proximal humerus and distal forearm. The hip fracture rates were used to create a FRAX® model to enhance fracture risk assessment in Kazakhstan.This paper describes the epidemiology of osteoporotic fractures in the Republic of Kazakhstan that was used to develop a country specific FRAX® tool for fracture prediction.We carried out a retrospective population-based survey in Taldykorgan in the Republic of Kazakhstan representing approximately 1% of the country's population. Hip, forearm and humerus fractures were identified retrospectively in 2015 and 2016 from hospital registers and the trauma centre. Hip fractures were prospectively identified in 2017 from the same sources and additionally from primary care data. Age- and sex-specific incidence of hip fracture and national mortality rates were incorporated into a FRAX model for Kazakhstan. Fracture probabilities were compared with those from neighbouring countries having FRAX models.The difference in hip fracture incidence between the retrospective and prospective survey indicated that approximately 25% of hip fracture cases did not come to hospital attention. The incidence of hip fracture applied nationally suggested that the estimated number of hip fractures nationwide in persons over the age of 50years for 2015 was 11,690 and is predicted to increase by 140% to 28,000 in 2050. Hip fracture incidence was a good predictor of forearm and humeral fractures in men but not in women.The FRAX model should enhance accuracy of determining fracture probability among the Kazakh population and help guide decisions about treatment.
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