| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 3. |
- Wang, Xiyan, et al.
(författare)
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Association of changes in self-reported sleep duration with mild cognitive impairment in the elderly : a longitudinal study
- 2021
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Ingår i: Aging. - : Impact Journals LLC. - 1945-4589. ; 13:11, s. 14816-14828
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As a symptomatic predementia stage with progressive cognitive decline, mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is common with aging. How changes in self-reported sleep duration affect MCI risk in the older adults remains unclear. Participants aged ≥ 65 years and enrolled at least two waves in the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey were included in present longitudinal study. Changes in sleep duration were calculated as the difference between two waves and categorized into five groups: decreased >2 h, decreased 0-2h, stable, increased 0-2 h, and increased >2 h. MCI was measured by the Chinese version of the Mini-Mental State Examination. Generalized estimating equation model and restricted cubic spline function was applied to investigate the association. Among 9,005 participants (mean age, 81.19 years; 4,391 male), 2,877 developed MCI. Comparing with individuals with stable sleep duration, MCI risk [odds ratio (95% confidence intervals)] was: 1.15 (0.99-1.34) for decreased >2 h, 0.99 (0.87-1.13) for decreased 0-2h, 1.09 (0.95-1.24) for increased 0-2 h, and 1.57 (1.36-1.81) for increased >2 h, respectively. Similar patterns were observed among subgroup analyses by sex, age, and sleep quality at baseline. For participants with long sleep duration at baseline (>8h), further increased >2 h was associated with higher MCI risk [2.23 (1.55-3.21)]. Either in the whole or subgroup population, a U-shaped association was observed (Pnon-linearity<0.05). In conclusion, changes in self-reported sleep duration were associated with MCI risk in a U-shaped pattern. Strategies that shifting sleep duration into normal range and keeping it stable are essential to prevent MCI in clinical practice.
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| 4. |
- Dobrosavljevic, Maja, 1986-, et al.
(författare)
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Risk prediction model for cardiovascular diseases in adults initiating pharmacological treatment for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder
- 2022
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Ingår i: Evidence-Based Mental Health. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 1362-0347 .- 1468-960X. ; 25, s. 185-190
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Available prediction models ofcardiovascular diseases (CVDs) may not accuratelypredict outcomes among individuals initiatingpharmacological treatment for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).Objective: To improve the predictive accuracyof traditional CVD risk factors for adults initiatingpharmacological treatment of ADHD, by consideringnovel CVD risk factors associated with ADHD (comorbidpsychiatric disorders, sociodemographic factors andpsychotropic medication).Methods: The cohort composed of 24 186 adultsresiding in Sweden without previous CVDs, born between1932 and 1990, who started pharmacological treatmentof ADHD between 2008 and 2011, and were followedfor up to 2 years. CVDs were identified using diagnosesaccording to the International Classification of Diseases,and dispended medication prescriptions from Swedishnational registers. Cox proportional hazards regressionwas employed to derive the prediction model.Findings: The developed model included eighttraditional and four novel CVD risk factors. Themodel showed acceptable overall discrimination (Cindex=0.72, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.74) and calibration(Brier score=0.008). The Integrated DiscriminationImprovement index showed a significant improvementafter adding novel risk factors (0.003 (95% CI 0.001 to0.007), p<0.001).Conclusions: The inclusion of the novel CVD riskfactors may provide a better prediction of CVDs in thispopulation compared with traditional CVD predictorsonly, when the model is used with a continuous riskscore. External validation studies and studies assessingclinical impact of the model are warranted.Clinical implications: Individuals initiatingpharmacological treatment of ADHD at higher risk ofdeveloping CVDs should be more closely monitored.
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| 5. |
- Duan, Chunhui, et al.
(författare)
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Improving Performance of All-Polymer Solar Cells Through Backbone Engineering of Both Donors and Acceptors
- 2018
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Ingår i: Solar RRL. - : Wiley. - 2367-198X. ; 2:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- All-polymer solar cells (APSCs), composed of semiconducting donor and acceptor polymers, have attracted considerable attention due to their unique advantages compared to polymer-fullerene-based devices in terms of enhanced light absorption and morphological stability. To improve the performance of APSCs, the morphology of the active layer must be optimized. By employing a random copolymerization strategy to control the regularity of the backbone of the donor polymers (PTAZ-TPDx) and acceptor polymers (PNDI-Tx) the morphology can be systematically optimized by tuning the polymer packing and crystallinity. To minimize effects of molecular weight, both donor and acceptor polymers have number-average molecular weights in narrow ranges. Experimental and coarse-grained modeling results disclose that systematic backbone engineering greatly affects the polymer crystallinity and ultimately the phase separation and morphology of the all-polymer blends. Decreasing the backbone regularity of either the donor or the acceptor polymer reduces the local crystallinity of the individual phase in blend films, affording reduced short-circuit current densities and fill factors. This two-dimensional crystallinity optimization strategy locates a PCE maximum at highest crystallinity for both donor and acceptor polymers. Overall, this study demonstrates that proper control of both donor and acceptor polymer crystallinity simultaneously is essential to optimize APSC performance.
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| 6. |
- Fan, Qunping, 1989, et al.
(författare)
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Over 14% efficiency all-polymer solar cells enabled by a low bandgap polymer acceptor with low energy loss and efficient charge separation
- 2020
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Ingår i: Energy & Environmental Science. - : Royal Society of Chemistry. - 1754-5692 .- 1754-5706. ; 13:12, s. 5017-5027
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Obtaining both high open-circuit voltage (V-oc) and short-circuit current density (J(sc)) has been a major challenge for efficient all-polymer solar cells (all-PSCs). Herein, we developed a polymer acceptor PF5-Y5 with excellent optical absorption capability (onset extending to similar to 880 nm and maximum absorption coefficient exceeding 105 cm(-1) in a film), high electron mobility (3.18 x 10(3) cm(2) V-1 s(-1)) and high LUMO level (-3.84 eV) to address such a challenge. As a result, the PBDB-T:PF5-Y5-based all-PSCs achieved a high power conversion efficiency of up to 14.45% with both a high Voc (0.946 V) and a high Jsc (20.65 mA cm(-2)), due to the high and broad absorption coverage, small energy loss (0.57 eV) and efficient charge separation and transport in the device, which are among the best values in the all-PSC field. In addition, the all-PSC shows a similar to 15% improvement in PCE compared to its counterpart small molecule acceptor (Y5)-based device. Our results suggest that PF5-Y5 is a very promising polymer acceptor candidate for applications in efficient all-PSCs.
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| 7. |
- Kase, Bezawit E., et al.
(författare)
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Longitudinal Associations Between Symptoms of ADHD and BMI From Late Childhood to Early Adulthood
- 2021
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Ingår i: Pediatrics. - : American Academy of Pediatrics. - 0031-4005 .- 1098-4275. ; 147:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and obesity are 2 frequent conditions that co-occur, which has implications for the management of both conditions. We hypothesized that ADHD symptoms predict BMI and vice versa from late childhood (10-12 years) up to early adulthood (20-22 years).METHODS: Participants were adolescents in the Netherlands (n = 2773, 52.5% male, mean age = 11 years at baseline, 5 waves up to mean age 22) from the Tracking Adolescents' Individual Lives Survey cohort. We examined bidirectional relationship between ADHD symptoms (hyperactivity/impulsivity and inattention) and BMI using the random intercept cross-lagged panel model. Time-varying covariates were pubertal status, stimulant use, depressive symptoms, and family functioning, and socioeconomic status was a time-invariant covariate.RESULTS: We found a time-invariant association of BMI with hyperactivity and impulsivity, but not with inattention, which was slightly stronger in female adolescents (female: r = 0.102; male: r = 0.086, P < .05). No longitudinal direct effects were found between ADHD symptoms and BMI during this period.CONCLUSIONS: Over the course of adolescence, the link between ADHD and BMI is stable and is predominantly with hyperactive and impulsive symptoms rather than inattention. There was no direct effect of ADHD symptoms on BMI increase nor of BMI on enhanced ADHD symptoms during this developmental period. The findings point to a shared genetic or familial background and/or potential causal effects established already earlier in childhood, thus suggesting that intervention and prevention programs targeting overweight and obesity in children with ADHD should be implemented in early childhood.
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| 8. |
- Kvalvik, Liv Grimstvedt, et al.
(författare)
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Association of sweetened carbonated beverage consumption during pregnancy and ADHD symptoms in the offspring : a study from the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study (MoBa)
- 2022
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Ingår i: European Journal of Nutrition. - : Springer. - 1436-6207 .- 1436-6215. ; 61:4, s. 2153-2166
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- PURPOSE: Intrauterine exposures influence offspring health and development. Here we investigated maternal intake of sweetened carbonated beverages (SCB) during pregnancy and its association with ADHD symptoms in the offspring.METHODS: This study was based on the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study (MoBa) and the Medical Birth Registry of Norway. Maternal diet mid-pregnancy was assessed using a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). All mothers who responded to the FFQ and a questionnaire when their child was 8 years of age were included (n = 39,870). The exposure was defined as maternal intake (daily servings) of SCB, using no daily intake as reference. Outcome was offspring ADHD symptoms, evaluated as a continuous standardized ADHD score and as a binary outcome of six or more ADHD symptoms vs. five symptoms or less. Associations were analysed using log-binomial regression and linear mixed regression models with adjustment for covariates.RESULTS: The adjusted regression coefficients for the standardized ADHD offspring symptom score were 0.31 [95% confidence intervals (0.001, 0.62)] and 0.46 (0.15, 0.77) for maternal daily intake of ≥ 1 glasses of SCB, when the models included adjustments for total energy intake or energy intake from other sources than SCBs and sweet drinks, respectively. The corresponding adjusted relative risks were 1.16 (1.004, 1.34) and 1.21. (1.05, 1.39) for drinking ≥ 1 glasses daily.CONCLUSION: In a large pregnancy cohort with offspring followed until 8 years of age, we found an association between maternal daily intake of SCB and offspring ADHD symptoms. These results suggest a weak positive relationship between prenatal exposure to SCB and offspring ADHD.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Li, Lin, 1989-, et al.
(författare)
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Association Between Pharmacological Treatment of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder and Long-term Unemployment Among Working-Age Individuals in Sweden
- 2022
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Ingår i: JAMA Network Open. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2574-3805. ; 5:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Importance: Adults with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are at greater risk for unemployment. Pharmacological treatment is effective in reducing the core symptoms of ADHD, but whether it helps to reduce the unemployment rate among adult patients remains unclear.Objective: To investigate the association between use of ADHD medication and long-term unemployment in working-age adults with ADHD.Design, Setting, and Participants: Data for this population-based cohort study were extracted from Swedish national registers. Among 25 358 individuals with ADHD born from 1958 to 1978, 12 875 middle-aged adults among the workforce were included. The longitudinal cohort was followed up from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2013. Data were analyzed from March 1, 2020, through May 31, 2021.Exposures: Use of medication for ADHD during the previous 2 years was the main exposure, as both categorical and continuous variables.Main Outcomes and Measures: Yearly accumulated unemployed days were derived from the Public Employment Service, and long-term unemployment was defined as 90 or more days of unemployment per year. Overall and sex-specific relative risks (RRs) with 95% CIs were estimated using generalized estimating equations.Results: Among 12 875 individuals with ADHD (5343 women [41.50%] and 7532 men [58.50%]; mean [SD] age, 37.9 [5.6] years), the use of ADHD medications during the previous 2 years was associated with a 10% lower risk of long-term unemployment in the following year (adjusted RR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.87-0.95]). An association between use of ADHD medications and long-term unemployment was found among women (RR, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.76-0.89]) but not men (RR, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.91-1.01]). Longer treatment duration was associated with a lower risk of subsequent long-term unemployment among women (RR for use of 1-6 months, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.78-0.95]; RR for use of 18-24 months, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.58-0.90]; P < .001 for trend). Within-individual comparisons showed that the long-term unemployment rate was lower during periods of ADHD medication treatment compared with nontreatment periods (RR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.85-0.94).Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cohort study suggest that the use of ADHD medication is associated with a lower risk of subsequent long-term unemployment for middle-aged women. These findings should be considered together with the existing knowledge of risks and benefits of ADHD medication when developing treatment plans for working-age adults.
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