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- Carvalho, Bruno M., et al.
(författare)
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A climatic suitability indicator to support Leishmania infantum surveillance in Europe : a modelling study
- 2024
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Ingår i: The Lancet Regional Health. - : Elsevier. - 2666-7762. ; 43
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Leishmaniases are neglected diseases transmitted by sand flies. They disproportionately affect vulnerable groups globally. Understanding the relationship between climate and disease transmission allows the development of relevant decision-support tools for public health policy and surveillance. The aim of this modelling study was to develop an indicator that tracks climatic suitability for Leishmania infantum transmission in Europe at the subnational level.Methods: Historical records of sand fly vectors, human leishmaniasis, bioclimatic indicators, and environmental variables were integrated in a machine learning framework (XGBoost) to predict suitability in two past periods (2001–2010 and 2011–2020). We further assessed if predictions were associated with human and animal disease data from selected countries (France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain).Findings: An increase in the number of climatically suitable regions for leishmaniasis was detected, especially in southern and eastern countries, coupled with a northward expansion towards central Europe. The final model had excellent predictive ability (AUC = 0.970 [0.947–0.993]), and the suitability predictions were positively associated with human leishmaniasis incidence and canine seroprevalence for Leishmania.Interpretation: This study demonstrates how key epidemiological data can be combined with open-source climatic and environmental information to develop an indicator that effectively tracks spatiotemporal changes in climatic suitability and disease risk. The positive association between the model predictions and human disease incidence demonstrates that this indicator could help target leishmaniasis surveillance to transmission hotspots.Funding: European Union Horizon Europe Research and Innovation Programme (European Climate-Health Cluster), United Kingdom Research and Innovation.
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- van Daalen, Kim R., et al.
(författare)
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The 2024 Europe report of the lancet countdown on health and climate change : unprecedented warming demands unprecedented action
- 2024
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Ingår i: The Lancet Public Health. - : Elsevier. - 2468-2667. ; 9:7, s. e495-e522
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Record-breaking temperatures were recorded across the globe in 2023. Without climate action, adverse climate-related health impacts are expected to worsen worldwide, affecting billions of people. Temperatures in Europe are warming at twice the rate of the global average, threatening the health of populations across the continent and leading to unnecessary loss of life. The Lancet Countdown in Europe was established in 2021, to assess the health profile of climate change aiming to stimulate European social and political will to implement rapid health-responsive climate mitigation and adaptation actions. In 2022, the collaboration published its indicator report, tracking progress on health and climate change via 33 indicators and across five domains.This new report tracks 42 indicators highlighting the negative impacts of climate change on human health, the delayed climate action of European countries, and the missed opportunities to protect or improve health with health-responsive climate action. The methods behind indicators presented in the 2022 report have been improved, and nine new indicators have been added, covering leishmaniasis, ticks, food security, health-care emissions, production and consumption-based emissions, clean energy investment, and scientific, political, and media engagement with climate and health. Considering that negative climate-related health impacts and the responsibility for climate change are not equal at the regional and global levels, this report also endeavours to reflect on aspects of inequality and justice by highlighting at-risk groups within Europe and Europe's responsibility for the climate crisis.
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