| 1. |
- Göransson, Lisa, 1982, et al.
(författare)
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Intermittent renewables, thermal power and hydropower - complements or competitors?
- 2014
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Ingår i: Systems Perspectives on Renewable Power 2014. - 9789198097405 ; , s. 119-127
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Around 80% of the electricity demand in the world is still supplied by fossil fuelledpower or nuclear, i.e. thermal generation. Wind and solar power is integrated intothe electricity generation systems to decrease the amount of carbon dioxide emissionsassociated with the generation of electricity as well as to enhance security ofsupply. Wind and solar power plants differ from thermal generation in two importantways: they have very low running costs (and high capital costs) and a generationlevel that depends on external elements. Due to the low running costs thereare strong economic incentives for the employment of wind and solar power tosupply the electricity demand once the capacity has been put in place. However,the share of the load that can be supplied by wind and solar power in a certainhour or second varies irregularly since it depends on prevailing wind speeds, solarirradiation and cloudiness.Thermal units are most efficiently run continuously at rated power. However, in amixed renewable-thermal system they may have to compensate for fluctuations in wind and solar generation. Thus, depending on the characteristics of the renewable-thermal system, part of the decrease in fuel costs and emissions realised bywind and solar power may be offset by a reduced efficiency in the operation of thethermal plants. This chapter discusses the interaction between intermittent renewablepower and thermal power, and investigates briefly the impact of including amore controllable renewable source such as hydropower in these mixed systems.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Jonson, Emma, 1981, et al.
(författare)
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Exploring the competition between variable renewable electricity and a carbon-neutral baseload technology
- 2020
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Ingår i: Energy Systems. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1868-3975 .- 1868-3967. ; 11:1, s. 21-44
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper we explore the competition between variable renewable energy sources (VRE) and a carbon-neutral baseload technology in the transition to a low-carbon power system. We study a stylized system subject to a gradually increasing carbon tax using an agent-based model where agents are power companies investing in new capacity. The agents make predictions of the profitability of different investment options. Five electricity generating technologies are available in the model: coal, gas, wind, solar PV and a more expensive carbon-neutral baseload technology. We compare the output from our model with a corresponding optimization model. We present two main findings: (1) installed capacity of VRE initially increases with a carbon tax. However, once the carbon tax has reached a certain level the installed capacity of VRE starts to decline due to competition with the stylized carbon-neutral baseload technology. (2) With limited foresight we find that the model underinvests (first 25 years) in wind and then overinvests in wind compared to the optimal solution. The reasons for these dynamic phenomena are explained and an extensive sensitivity analysis is carried out.
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| 4. |
- Jonson, Emma, 1981, et al.
(författare)
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Impacts on Stability of Interdependencies Between Markets in a Cobweb Model
- 2015
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Ingår i: Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems. - Cham : Springer International Publishing. - 2196-9957 .- 0075-8442. ; 676, s. 195-205
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a cobweb model of interdependent markets on both the sup- ply and demand sides and apply it to a food and bioenergy framework. The supply side is represented by an agent based model of global land use while the consumer side consists of interlinked demand functions. We find that the two kinds of inter- dependencies have opposing effects. Linking markets on the supply side transfers instabilities within the system and may cause price fluctuations in previously sta- ble markets. Market interdependency on the demand side, on the other hand, has a stabilizing effect.
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| 5. |
- Lindgren, Kristian, 1960, et al.
(författare)
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Projection of a Heterogenous Agent-Based Production Economy Model to a Closed Dynamics of Aggregate Variables
- 2015
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Ingår i: Advances in Complex Systems. - 0219-5259. ; 18:5-6, s. 1550012-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A model framework that describes a simple production economy is presented, in which the micro-dynamics can be projected to a closed dynamics of aggregate variables. The construction is based on an agent-based model with heterogeneity both regarding pro- duction characteristics and the strategies agents use to predict future prices as a basis for choosing what to produce. The world is divided into a number of regional markets that collect the locally produced goods and via inter-market trade supply regional demands with goods. We discuss the model features that make it possible to project the agent- based micro-dynamics to a closed form dynamics on the level of regionally aggregate quantities. One advantage of such a projection from a high dimensional agent-based dynamics to a low dimensional dynamical system is that the stability characteristics can be analytically approached, and this is illustrated by a derived condition for when a mix of naive and rational agents can stabilize the system. Some illustrations of the general framework in a model of global agricultural land-use are also given.
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| 6. |
- Lundberg, Liv, 1987, et al.
(författare)
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A cobweb model of land-use competition between food and bioenergy crops
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. - : Elsevier BV. - 0165-1889. ; 53, s. 1-14
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a model of interacting cobweb markets and apply it to land-use competition between food and bioenergy crops. In our model the markets are interlinked on the supply side by the limited availability of land. Therefore, instabilities are transferred between the markets and we find that bioenergy demand affects food price volatility. The agents in the model have heterogeneous production capacities, representing variation in global land quality. When we allow agents to choose price predictor, we find that a more sophisticated (but costly) predictor is concentrated to some key parcels of land, which enables the system to reduce instability significantly. The system can also be brought closer to a stable state by introducing costs for changing production type, but it may then be shifted away from the optimum situation predicted by the corresponding equilibrium model.
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| 7. |
- Lundberg, Liv, 1987
(författare)
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Agents, auctions and interactions: Modelling markets for ecosystem services and renewable energy
- 2018
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- If we are to mitigate climate change and tackle other pressing environmental issues such as biodiversity loss, environmental policies will be crucial. The papers in this thesis all focus on how individual behaviour and lack of information affects the outcome of environmental policy, using agent-based models where individual actors and their behaviour are explicitly modelled. In paper I-III the focus is to compare an agent-based modelling approach with a partial equilibrium model in a framework of land-use competition between bioenergy and food crops. The agent-based model, where landowners are uncertain about price levels at the time of harvest, exhibits unstable dynamics that provides insights beyond the partial equilibrium model. This type of dynamics is typical of cobweb models, and paper I-III extends the cobweb literature by introducing markets that are interlinked through land use competition, showing how instabilities can be transferred from one market to another. The system can be stabilised, for example, by allowing a share of the actors to have perfect information of the upcoming prices. Paper IV focus on payment for ecosystem services programs, where landowners are given monetary compensation to let their land provide an ecosystem service. The paper uses an agent-based model to explore the performance of different program designs, such as fixed payments, a uniform auction and a discriminatory auction, in differing circumstances. The main finding of the paper is that the context in which the program is implemented has a determining impact on what the best policy design is. Paper V is centred around the allocation of subsidies for onshore wind power through auctions in Germany 2017. In these auctions a special design was used where some winners were awarded their submitted bid, while others were awarded the highest winning bid. In the paper, the specific choice of design and how it may incentivise aggressive bidding is discussed along with an analysis of the outcomes of the German auctions.
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| 8. |
- Lundberg, Liv, 1987
(författare)
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Auctions for all? Reviewing the German wind power auctions in 2017
- 2019
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Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4215. ; 128, s. 449-458
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2017, Germany introduced auctions to determine the support level for onshore wind power. To protect small-scale actors, citizens’ energy cooperatives were allowed longer realization periods and did not need to have an approval pursuant to the Federal Immission Control Act to submit a bid. Winning cooperatives were given the highest accepted bid, while other participants were paid-as-bid. The aim of this paper is to examine how this auction design affected actor diversity and the risk of winning projects not being realized. Unexpectedly, the outcome of the auctions was that over 90% of the winners were cooperatives, and the average project size of their bids was twice the size of other winning bids. There was also a significant decrease in the highest accepted bid, from 5.78€ct/kWh in the first auction, to 3.82€ct/kWh in the third auction. However, the pricing rule combined with uncertain technology costs and strong competition, may have encouraged overly aggressive bidding. This, as well as cooperatives being exempt from having an approval pursuant to the Federal Immission Control Act, could increase the risk of winning projects not being realized. A conclusion is that special rules for small-scale actors, should be used with caution, especially if they give significant competitive advantages and may affect realization rates.
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| 9. |
- Lundberg, Liv, 1987, et al.
(författare)
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Context Matters: Exploring the Cost-effectiveness of Fixed Payments and Procurement Auctions for PES
- 2018
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Ingår i: Ecological Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0921-8009. ; 146, s. 347-358
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Successfully implemented payment for ecosystem services (PES) programs can provide both conservation of nature and financial support to rural communities. In this paper, we explore how PES programs can be designed so as to maximize the amount of additional ecosystem services provided for a given budget. We also provide a brief summary of the use of auction mechanisms in real world PES programs. To explore the potential additionality of different PES program designs we use a conceptual agent based simulation model where payments are either fixed, or set through a uniform or discriminatory auction. The program can also be designed to target payments to land-owners based on their provision of ecosystem services. Theoretically, auctions should be the most effective design, especially if payments are differentiated and targeted by ecosystem service provision. However, what we find is that the context in which the PES program is implemented—baseline compliance with program standards among the participants, correlation between opportunity costs and ecosystem services in the landscape, heterogeneity in costs and budget size—has a determining impact on the relative effectiveness of the different payment designs, with fixed payments schemes being much more effective than auctions in certain settings. Our findings suggest that context should be taken into serious consideration when a PES program design is chosen.
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