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- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
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World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-109X. ; 7:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 3. |
- de Pater, Imke, et al.
(författare)
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An Energetic Eruption With Associated SO 1.707 Micron Emissions at Io's Kanehekili Fluctus and a Brightening Event at Loki Patera Observed by JWST
- 2023
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Planets. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2169-9097 .- 2169-9100. ; 128:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We observed Io with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) while the satellite was in eclipse, and detected thermal emission from several volcanoes. The data were taken as part of our JWST-ERS program #1373 on 15 November 2022. Kanehekili Fluctus was exceptionally bright, and Loki Patera had most likely entered a new brightening phase. Spectra were taken with NIRSpec/IFU at a resolving power R ≈ 2,700 between 1.65 and 5.3 µm. The spectra were matched by a combination of blackbody curves that showed that the highest temperature, ∼1,200 K, for Kanehekili Fluctus originated from an area ∼0.25 km2 in size, and for Loki Patera this high temperature was confined to an area of ∼0.06 km2. Lower temperatures, down to 300 K, cover areas of ∼2,000 km2 for Kanehekili Fluctus, and ∼5,000 km2 for Loki Patera. We further detected the a1Δ ⇒ X3Σ− 1.707 µm rovibronic forbidden SO emission band complex over the southern hemisphere, which peaked at the location of Kanehekili Fluctus. This is the first time this emission has been seen above an active volcano, and suggests that the origin of such emissions is ejection of SO molecules directly from the vent in an excited state, after having been equilibrated at temperatures of ∼1,500 K below the surface, as was previously hypothesized.
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| 6. |
- Bacchus, E., et al.
(författare)
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Project 1640 observations of the white dwarf HD 114174 B
- 2017
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Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 469:4, s. 4796-4805
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present the first near infrared spectrum of the faint white dwarf companion HD 114174 B, obtained with Project 1640. Our spectrum, covering the Y, J and H bands, combined with previous TaRgetting bENchmark-objects with Doppler Spectroscopy (TRENDS) photometry measurements, allows us to place further constraints on this companion. We suggest two possible scenarios; either this object is an old, low-mass, cool H atmosphere white dwarf with T-eff similar to 3800 K or a high-mass white dwarf with T-eff > 6000 K, potentially with an associated cool (T-eff similar to 700 K) brown dwarf or debris disc resulting in an infrared excess in the L' band. We also provide an additional astrometry point for 2014 June 12 and use the modelled companion mass combined with the radial velocity and direct imaging data to place constraints on the orbital parameters for this companion.
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