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- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 2. |
- Holder, Peter E., et al.
(författare)
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Preparing for a changing future in recreational fisheries : 100 research questions for global consideration emerging from a horizon scan
- 2020
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Ingår i: Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0960-3166 .- 1573-5184. ; 30:1, s. 137-151
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recreational fisheries hold immense ecological, social, and economic value. The management of these fisheries is increasingly important as we move forward in the Anthropocene. Recreational fisheries managers face several challenges as fisheries often involve diverse social and ecological systems comprised of complex feedback and stakeholder motivations and needs. Here, we used a horizon scanning exercise to yield 100 research questions related to recreational fisheries science and management in the Anthropocene. Initial research questions (n = 205) were collected from recreational fisheries experts (i.e., stakeholders, managers, researchers) from various sectors (i.e., industry, government, NGOs) and geographic locations (14 countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, Czech Republic, Germany, Italy, New Zealand, Norway, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, USA). These questions were subsequently categorized, thematized, and refined by our authorship team, eventually yielding what we considered to be the top 100 research questions of relevance to management of recreational fisheries. The key themes include: human dimensions; bioeconomics; resource monitoring and data acquisition; governance; management-regulatory actions; management-stock and habitat enhancement; catch-and-release; impacts of recreational fisheries on populations, communities and ecosystems; threats and sustainability; and angler outreach, education and engagement. It is our intention that this comprehensive and forward-looking list will create a framework to guide future research within this field, and contribute to evidence-based recreational fisheries management and policy.
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