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- Gomes Marques, Inês, et al.
(författare)
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The ADnet Bayesian belief network for alder decline : integrating empirical data and expert knowledge
- 2024
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Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 947
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The globalization in plant material trading has caused the emergence of invasive pests in many ecosystems, such as the alder pathogen Phytophthora ×alni in European riparian forests. Due to the ecological importance of alder to the functioning of rivers and the increasing incidence of P. ×alni-induced alder decline, effective and accessible decision tools are required to help managers and stakeholders control the disease. This study proposes a Bayesian belief network methodology to integrate diverse information on the factors affecting the survival and infection ability of P. ×alni in riparian habitats to help predict and manage disease incidence. The resulting Alder Decline Network (ADnet) management tool integrates information about alder decline from scientific literature, expert knowledge and empirical data. Expert knowledge was gathered through elicitation techniques that included 19 experts from 12 institutions and 8 countries. An original dataset was created covering 1189 European locations, from which P. ×alni occurrence was modeled based on bioclimatic variables. ADnet uncertainty was evaluated through its sensitivity to changes in states and three scenario analyses. The ADnet tool indicated that mild temperatures and high precipitation are key factors favoring pathogen survival. Flood timing, water velocity, and soil type have the strongest influence on disease incidence. ADnet can support ecosystem management decisions and knowledge transfer to address P. ×alni-induced alder decline at local or regional levels across Europe. Management actions such as avoiding the planting of potentially infected trees or removing man-made structures that increase the flooding period in disease-affected sites could decrease the incidence of alder disease in riparian forests and limit its spread. The coverage of the ADnet tool can be expanded by updating data on the pathogen's occurrence, particularly from its distributional limits. Research on the role of genetic variability in alder susceptibility and pathogen virulence may also help improve future ADnet versions.
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- Solmi, Marco, et al.
(författare)
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Physical and mental health impact of COVID-19 on children, adolescents, and their families :
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of Affective Disorders. - : Elsevier. - 0165-0327 .- 1573-2517. ; 299, s. 367-376
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has altered daily routines and family functioning, led to closing schools, and dramatically limited social interactions worldwide. Measuring its impact on mental health of vulnerable children and adolescents is crucial. Methods: The Collaborative Outcomes study on Health and Functioning during Infection Times (COH-FIT - www. coh-fit.com) is an on-line anonymous survey, available in 30 languages, involving >230 investigators from 49 countries supported by national/international professional associations. COH-FIT has thee waves (until the pandemic is declared over by the WHO, and 6-18 months plus 24-36 months after its end). In addition to adults, COH-FIT also includes adolescents (age 14-17 years), and children (age 6-13 years), recruited via nonprobability/snowball and representative sampling and assessed via self-rating and parental rating. Nonmodifiable/modifiable risk factors/treatment targets to inform prevention/intervention programs to promote health and prevent mental and physical illness in children and adolescents will be generated by COH-FIT. Co primary outcomes are changes in well-being (WHO-5) and a composite psychopathology P-Score. Multiple behavioral, family, coping strategy and service utilization factors are also assessed, including functioning and quality of life. Results: Up to June 2021, over 13,000 children and adolescents from 59 countries have participated in the COHFIT project, with representative samples from eleven countries. Limitations: Cross-sectional and anonymous design. Conclusions: Evidence generated by COH-FIT will provide an international estimate of the COVID-19 effect on childrens, adolescents and families, mental and physical health, well-being, functioning and quality of life, informing the formulation of present and future evidence-based interventions and policies to minimize adverse effects of the present and future pandemics on youth.
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- Solmi, Marco, et al.
(författare)
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The collaborative outcomes study on health and functioning during infection times in adults (COH-FIT-Adults) : Design and methods of an international online survey targeting physical and mental health effects of the COVID-19 pandemic
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of Affective Disorders. - : Elsevier. - 0165-0327 .- 1573-2517. ; 299, s. 393-407
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: . High-quality comprehensive data on short-/long-term physical/mental health effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are needed. Methods: . The Collaborative Outcomes study on Health and Functioning during Infection Times (COH-FIT) is an international, multi-language (n=30) project involving >230 investigators from 49 countries/territories/regions, endorsed by national/international professional associations. COH-FIT is a multi-wave, on-line anonymous, cross-sectional survey [wave 1: 04/2020 until the end of the pandemic, 12 months waves 2/3 starting 6/24 months threreafter] for adults, adolescents (14-17), and children (6-13), utilizing non-probability/snowball and representative sampling. COH-FIT aims to identify non-modifiable/modifiable risk factors/treatment targets to inform prevention/intervention programs to improve social/health outcomes in the general population/vulnerable subgrous during/after COVID-19. In adults, co-primary outcomes are change from pre-COVID-19 to intra-COVID-19 in well-being (WHO-5) and a composite psychopathology P-Score. Key secondary outcomes are a P-extended score, global mental and physical health. Secondary outcomes include health-service utilization/ functioning, treatment adherence, functioning, symptoms/behaviors/emotions, substance use, violence, among others. Results: . Starting 04/26/2020, up to 14/07/2021 >151,000 people from 155 countries/territories/regions and six continents have participated. Representative samples of >= 1,000 adults have been collected in 15 countries. Overall, 43.0% had prior physical disorders, 16.3% had prior mental disorders, 26.5% were health care workers, 8.2% were aged >= 65 years, 19.3% were exposed to someone infected with COVID-19, 76.1% had been in quarantine, and 2.1% had been COVID 19-positive. Limitations: . Cross-sectional survey, preponderance of non-representative participants. Conclusions: . Results from COH-FIT will comprehensively quantify the impact of COVID-19, seeking to identify high-risk groups in need for acute and long-term intervention, and inform evidence-based health policies/strategies during this/future pandemics.
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| 5. |
- Solmi, Marco, et al.
(författare)
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Validation of the Collaborative Outcomes study on Health and Functioning during Infection Times (COH-FIT) questionnaire for adults
- 2023
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Ingår i: Journal of Affective Disorders. - : ELSEVIER. - 0165-0327 .- 1573-2517. ; 326, s. 249-261
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The Collaborative Outcome study on Health and Functioning during Infection Times (COH-FIT; www.coh-fit.com) is an anonymous and global online survey measuring health and functioning during the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of this study was to test concurrently the validity of COH-FIT items and the in-ternal validity of the co-primary outcome, a composite psychopathology "P-score". Methods: The COH-FIT survey has been translated into 30 languages (two blind forward-translations, consensus, one independent English back-translation, final harmonization). To measure mental health, 1-4 items ("COH-FIT items") were extracted from validated questionnaires (e.g. Patient Health Questionnaire 9). COH-FIT items measured anxiety, depressive, post-traumatic, obsessive-compulsive, bipolar and psychotic symptoms, as well as stress, sleep and concentration. COH-FIT Items which correlated r >= 0.5 with validated companion question-naires, were initially retained. A P-score factor structure was then identified from these items using exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analyses (CFA) on data split into training and validation sets. Consistency of results across languages, gender and age was assessed. Results: From >150,000 adult responses by May 6th, 2022, a subset of 22,456 completed both COH-FIT items and validated questionnaires. Concurrent validity was consistently demonstrated across different languages for COH-FIT items. CFA confirmed EFA results of five first-order factors (anxiety, depression, post-traumatic, psychotic, psychophysiologic symptoms) and revealed a single second-order factor P-score, with high internal reliability (omega = 0.95). Factor structure was consistent across age and sex. Conclusions: COH-FIT is a valid instrument to globally measure mental health during infection times. The P-score is a valid measure of multidimensional mental health.
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- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 7. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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