| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 3. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 4. |
- Baianifar, Mahdi, et al.
(författare)
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Effect of users height distribution on the coverage of mmwave cellular networks with 3d beamforming
- 2019
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Ingår i: IEEE Access. - 2169-3536 .- 2169-3536. ; 7, s. 68091-68105
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper, we study the effect of users' height distribution on the coverage probability of millimeter-wave (mmWave) cellular networks that utilize three-dimensional beamforming (3DBF). The users and base stations (BSs) are equipped with multiple antennas and both line-of-sight (LOS) and non-LOS links exist in the channel which are, respectively, modeled by the Nakagami-m and Rayleigh distribution. In this setup, we investigate the tilt angle optimization of the BS antenna arrays for maximizing the coverage probability under two regimes of noise limited and interference limitedd. In both cases, by adopting a stochastic geometry approach, we analytically derive the coverage probability, and then, find the optimal tilt angle that maximizes this probability. In addition, in the noise limited regime, we show that the optimal tilt angle depends on the average distance between each user and its serving BS and also their effective height. In the interference-limited regime, we further consider different rules for associating users to the BSs. Meanwhile, since in this regime, the tilt angle optimization is very complex, we propose a low complexity approach to find the optimal tilt angle that has a performance close to the optimal solution. We further study the asymptotic behavior when the density of the BSs or signal-To-interference ratio tends to infinity or zero. Finally, through the numerical simulations, we show that using the 3DBF and also incorporating the users' height distribution in the tilt angle optimization lead to a substantial improvement in the coverage probability of the mmWave cellular networks.
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| 5. |
- Baianifar, Mahdi, et al.
(författare)
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Impact of User Height on the Coverage of 3D Beamforming-Enabled Massive MIMO Systems
- 2017
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Ingår i: 2017 IEEE 28TH ANNUAL INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON PERSONAL, INDOOR, AND MOBILE RADIO COMMUNICATIONS (PIMRC). - 9781538635315 ; 2017-October, s. 1-5
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper, we perform a coverage analysis of a cellular massive multiple-input multiple-output (MaMIMO) network which adopts 3D beamforming. In contrast to the previous works on 3D beamforming which assume that all users are placed on the ground (i.e., in a 2D environment), we consider a more practical scenario where the users of the network are dropped in a 3D environment with different heights. In this scenario, by adopting a stochastic geometry framework, first we calculate the coverage probability of the network as a function of the users height. Then considering this coverage probability as the objective function, the optimum tilt angle of the base stations antenna pattern is found and the effect of users' heights on this tilt angle is investigated. Our numerical results show that by taking the users' heights into account and using the proposed method, a considerable improvement is achieved in the performance of the network compared to other similar 3D beamforming methods that ignore the users' height distribution.
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| 6. |
- Black, Melissa H., et al.
(författare)
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Multi-informant International Perspectives on the Facilitators and Barriers to Employment for Autistic Adults
- 2020
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Ingår i: Autism Research. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1939-3792 .- 1939-3806. ; 13:7, s. 1195-1214
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Employment rates for autistic individuals are poor, even compared to those from other disability groups. Internationally, there remains limited understanding of the factors influencing employment across the stages of preparing for, gaining, and maintaining employment. This is the third in a series of studies conducted as part of an International Society for Autism Research (INSAR) policy brief intended to improve employment outcomes for autistic individuals. A multi-informant international survey with five key stakeholder groups, including autistic individuals, their families, employers, service providers, and researchers, was undertaken in Australia, Sweden, and the United States to understand the facilitators and barriers to employment for autistic adults. A total of 687 individuals participated, including autistic individuals (n = 246), family members (n = 233), employers (n = 35), clinicians/service providers (n = 123), and researchers (n = 50). Perceptions of the facilitators and barriers to employment differed significantly across both key stakeholder groups and countries, however, ensuring a good job match and focusing on strengths were identified by all groups as important for success. Key barriers to employment included stigma, a lack of understanding of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and communication difficulties. Results suggest that a holistic approach to employment for autistic individuals is required, aimed at facilitating communication between key stakeholders, addressing attitudes and understanding of ASD in the workplace, using strength-based approaches and providing early work experience. LAY SUMMARY: Autistic individuals experience significant difficulty getting and keeping a job. This article presents a survey study involving autistic individuals, their families, employers, service providers and researchers in Australia, Sweden, and the United States to understand their perspectives on the factors that support or act as barriers to employment. While perspectives varied across key stakeholders, strategies such as using a holistic approach, targeting workplace attitudes and understanding, focusing on strengths, and providing early work experience are important for success.
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| 7. |
- Black, Melissa H., et al.
(författare)
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Perspectives of key stakeholders on employment of autistic adults across the United States, Australia and Sweden
- 2019
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Ingår i: Autism Research. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1939-3792 .- 1939-3806. ; 12:11, s. 1648-1662
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Despite efforts to improve employment outcomes for autistic individuals, internationally their employment rates remain low. There is a need to better understand the factors influencing successful employment for autistic adults in the labor market from the perspectives of multiple keystakeholders. This study represents the second in a series of papers conducted as part of an International Society for Autism Research policy brief aimed at improving employment outcomes for autistic individuals. A community consultation methodology using focus groups, forums, and interviews was applied with autistic individuals (n = 19), family members (n = 18), service providers (n = 21), employers (n = 11), researchers (n = 5), and advocacy group representatives (n = 5) in Australia, Sweden, and the United States, aiming to identify the factors perceived to determine gaining and maintaining employment for autistic individuals. Directed content analysis, guided by the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF), was conducted to investigate the key factors influencing employment outcomes for autistic individuals. Meaningful verbal concepts, or units of text with common themes, were also derived from the qualitative data and then linked and compared to the ICF Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) Core-sets. Across countries, activity and participation and environmental factor categories of the ICF were the most associated with employment outcomes. Results suggest that removal of environmental barriers and enhancing environmental facilitators may assist to remediate ASD-related difficulties in the workplace.LAY SUMMARY: This study sought to understand the perspectives of autistic individuals and key stakeholders on factors influencing if autistic adults get and keep jobs. Across Australia, Sweden, and the UnitedStates, focus groups and interviews were conducted to understand international perspectives on what helps and hinders getting and keeping a job for autistic individuals. The environment, including supports, relationships, attitudes, and services, were perceived to be the most important for workplace success. Intervention targeting barriers and facilitators in the workplace environment may support autistic adults to be successful in the labor market.
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| 8. |
- Bölte, Sven, et al.
(författare)
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Standardised assessment of functioning in ADHD : consensus on the ICF Core Sets for ADHD
- 2018
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Ingår i: European Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. - : Dr. Dietrich Steinkopff Verlag GmbH and Co. KG. - 1018-8827 .- 1435-165X. ; 27:10, s. 1261-1281
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is associated with significant impairments in social, educational, and occupational functioning, as well as specific strengths. Currently, there is no internationally accepted standard to assess the functioning of individuals with ADHD. WHO’s International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health—child and youth version (ICF) can serve as a conceptual basis for such a standard. The objective of this study is to develop a comprehensive, a common brief, and three age-appropriate brief ICF Core Sets for ADHD. Using a standardised methodology, four international preparatory studies generated 132 second-level ICF candidate categories that served as the basis for developing ADHD Core Sets. Using these categories and following an iterative consensus process, 20 ADHD experts from nine professional disciplines and representing all six WHO regions selected the most relevant categories to constitute the ADHD Core Sets. The consensus process resulted in 72 second-level ICF categories forming the comprehensive ICF Core Set—these represented 8 body functions, 35 activities and participation, and 29 environmental categories. A Common Brief Core Set that included 38 categories was also defined. Age-specific brief Core Sets included a 47 category preschool version for 0–5 years old, a 55 category school-age version for 6–16 years old, and a 52 category version for older adolescents and adults 17 years old and above. The ICF Core Sets for ADHD mark a milestone toward an internationally standardised functional assessment of ADHD across the lifespan, and across educational, administrative, clinical, and research settings. © 2018 The Author(s)
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| 9. |
- Bölte, Sven, et al.
(författare)
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The Gestalt of functioning in autism spectrum disorder : Results of the international conference to develop final consensus International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health core sets
- 2019
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Ingår i: Autism. - : Sage Publications. - 1362-3613 .- 1461-7005. ; 23:2, s. 449-467
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Autism spectrum disorder is associated with diverse social, educational, and occupational challenges. To date, no standardized, internationally accepted tools exist to assess autism spectrum disorder–related functioning. World Health Organization’s International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health can serve as foundation for developing such tools. This study aimed to identify a comprehensive, a common brief, and three age-appropriate brief autism spectrum disorder Core Sets. Four international preparatory studies yielded in total 164 second-level International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health candidate categories. Based on this evidence, 20 international autism spectrum disorder experts applied an established iterative decision-making consensus process to select from the candidate categories the most relevant ones to constitute the autism spectrum disorder Core Sets. The consensus process generated 111 second-level International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health categories in the Comprehensive Core Set for autism spectrum disorder—one body structure, 20 body functions, 59 activities and participation categories, and 31 environmental factors. The Common Brief Core Set comprised 60 categories, while the age-appropriate core sets included 73 categories in the preschool version (0- to 5-year-old children), 81 in the school-age version (6- to 16-year-old children and adolescents), and 79 in the older adolescent and adult version (⩾17-year-old individuals). The autism spectrum disorder Core Sets mark a milestone toward the standardized assessment of autism spectrum disorder–related functioning in educational, administrative, clinical, and research settings.
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| 10. |
- de Schipper, Elles, et al.
(författare)
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Functioning and disability in autism spectrum disorder : A worldwide survey of experts
- 2016
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Ingår i: Autism Research. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1939-3792 .- 1939-3806. ; 9:9, s. 959-969
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: This study is the second of four to prepare International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF; and Children and Youth version, ICF(-CY)) Core Sets for Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD).The objective of this study was to survey the opinions and experiences of international experts on functioning and disability in ASD.Methods: Using a protocol stipulated by the World Health Organization (WHO) and monitored by the ICF Research Branch, an email-based questionnaire was circulated worldwide among ASD experts, and meaningful functional ability and disability concepts were extracted from their responses. These concepts were then linked to the ICF(-CY) by two independent researchers using a standardized linking procedure.Results: N = 225 experts from 10 different disciplines and all six WHO-regions completed the survey. Meaningful concepts from the responses were linked to 210 ICF(-CY) categories. Of these, 103 categories were considered most relevant to ASD (i.e., identified by at least 5% of the experts), of which 37 were related toActivities and Participation, 35 to Body functions, 22 to Environmental factors, and 9 to Body structures. A variety of personal characteristics and ASD-related functioning skills were provided by experts, including honesty, loyalty, attention to detail and creative talents. Reported gender differences in ASD comprised more externalizing behaviors among males and more internalizing behaviors in females.Conclusion: The ICF(-CY) categories derived from international expert opinions indicate that the impact of ASD on functioning extends far beyond core symptom domains
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