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- 2019
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 2. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 3. |
- Ademuyiwa, Adesoji O., et al.
(författare)
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Determinants of morbidity and mortality following emergency abdominal surgery in children in low-income and middle-income countries
- 2016
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Ingår i: BMJ Global Health. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2059-7908. ; 1:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Child health is a key priority on the global health agenda, yet the provision of essential and emergency surgery in children is patchy in resource-poor regions. This study was aimed to determine the mortality risk for emergency abdominal paediatric surgery in low-income countries globally.Methods: Multicentre, international, prospective, cohort study. Self-selected surgical units performing emergency abdominal surgery submitted prespecified data for consecutive children aged <16 years during a 2-week period between July and December 2014. The United Nation's Human Development Index (HDI) was used to stratify countries. The main outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality, analysed by multilevel logistic regression.Results: This study included 1409 patients from 253 centres in 43 countries; 282 children were under 2 years of age. Among them, 265 (18.8%) were from low-HDI, 450 (31.9%) from middle-HDI and 694 (49.3%) from high-HDI countries. The most common operations performed were appendectomy, small bowel resection, pyloromyotomy and correction of intussusception. After adjustment for patient and hospital risk factors, child mortality at 30 days was significantly higher in low-HDI (adjusted OR 7.14 (95% CI 2.52 to 20.23), p<0.001) and middle-HDI (4.42 (1.44 to 13.56), p=0.009) countries compared with high-HDI countries, translating to 40 excess deaths per 1000 procedures performed.Conclusions: Adjusted mortality in children following emergency abdominal surgery may be as high as 7 times greater in low-HDI and middle-HDI countries compared with high-HDI countries. Effective provision of emergency essential surgery should be a key priority for global child health agendas.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(författare)
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- 2020
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 6. |
- Ahmad, Amais, et al.
(författare)
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IMI – Oral biopharmaceutics tools project – Evaluation of bottom-up PBPK prediction success part 4 : Prediction accuracy and software comparisons with improved data and modelling strategies
- 2020
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Ingår i: European journal of pharmaceutics and biopharmaceutics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0939-6411 .- 1873-3441. ; 156, s. 50-63
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Oral drug absorption is a complex process depending on many factors, including the physicochemical properties of the drug, formulation characteristics and their interplay with gastrointestinal physiology and biology. Physiological-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models integrate all available information on gastro-intestinal system with drug and formulation data to predict oral drug absorption. The latter together with in vitro-in vivo extrapolation and other preclinical data on drug disposition can be used to predict plasma concentration-time profiles in silico. Despite recent successes of PBPK in many areas of drug development, an improvement in their utility for evaluating oral absorption is much needed. Current status of predictive performance, within the confinement of commonly available in vitro data on drugs and formulations alongside systems information, were tested using 3 PBPK software packages (GI-Sim (ver.4.1), Simcyp® Simulator (ver.15.0.86.0), and GastroPlusTM (ver.9.0.00xx)). This was part of the Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI) Oral Biopharmaceutics Tools (OrBiTo) project.Fifty eight active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) were qualified from the OrBiTo database to be part of the investigation based on a priori set criteria on availability of minimum necessary information to allow modelling exercise. The set entailed over 200 human clinical studies with over 700 study arms. These were simulated using input parameters which had been harmonised by a panel of experts across different software packages prior to conduct of any simulation. Overall prediction performance and software packages comparison were evaluated based on performance indicators (Fold error (FE), Average fold error (AFE) and absolute average fold error (AAFE)) of pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters.On average, PK parameters (Area Under the Concentration-time curve (AUC0-tlast), Maximal concentration (Cmax), half-life (t1/2)) were predicted with AFE values between 1.11 and 1.97. Variability in FEs of these PK parameters was relatively high with AAFE values ranging from 2.08 to 2.74. Around half of the simulations were within the 2-fold error for AUC0-tlast and around 90% of the simulations were within 10-fold error for AUC0-tlast. Oral bioavailability (Foral) predictions, which were limited to 19 APIs having intravenous (i.v.) human data, showed AFE and AAFE of values 1.37 and 1.75 respectively. Across different APIs, AFE of AUC0-tlast predictions were between 0.22 and 22.76 with 70% of the APIs showing an AFE > 1. When compared across different formulations and routes of administration, AUC0-tlast for oral controlled release and i.v. administration were better predicted than that for oral immediate release formulations. Average predictive performance did not clearly differ between software packages but some APIs showed a high level of variability in predictive performance across different software packages. This variability could be related to several factors such as compound specific properties, the quality and availability of information, and errors in scaling from in vitro and preclinical in vivo data to human in vivo behaviour which will be explored further. Results were compared with previous similar exercise when the input data selection was carried by the modeller rather than a panel of experts on each in vitro test. Overall, average predictive performance was increased as reflected in smaller AAFE value of 2.8 as compared to AAFE value of 3.8 in case of previous exercise.
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| 7. |
- Zeng, Chenjie, et al.
(författare)
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Identification of independent association signals and putative functional variants for breast cancer risk through fine-scale mapping of the 12p11 locus
- 2016
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Ingår i: Breast Cancer Research. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1465-5411 .- 1465-542X. ; 18
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Multiple recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs10771399, at 12p11 that is associated with breast cancer risk. Method: We performed a fine-scale mapping study of a 700 kb region including 441 genotyped and more than 1300 imputed genetic variants in 48,155 cases and 43,612 controls of European descent, 6269 cases and 6624 controls of East Asian descent and 1116 cases and 932 controls of African descent in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC; http://bcac.ccge.medschl.cam.ac.uk/), and in 15,252 BRCA1 mutation carriers in the Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/2 (CIMBA). Stepwise regression analyses were performed to identify independent association signals. Data from the Encyclopedia of DNA Elements project (ENCODE) and the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) were used for functional annotation. Results: Analysis of data from European descendants found evidence for four independent association signals at 12p11, represented by rs7297051 (odds ratio (OR) = 1.09, 95 % confidence interval (CI) = 1.06-1.12; P = 3 x 10(-9)), rs805510 (OR = 1.08, 95 % CI = 1.04-1.12, P = 2 x 10(-5)), and rs1871152 (OR = 1.04, 95 % CI = 1.02-1.06; P = 2 x 10(-4)) identified in the general populations, and rs113824616 (P = 7 x 10(-5)) identified in the meta-analysis of BCAC ER-negative cases and BRCA1 mutation carriers. SNPs rs7297051, rs805510 and rs113824616 were also associated with breast cancer risk at P < 0.05 in East Asians, but none of the associations were statistically significant in African descendants. Multiple candidate functional variants are located in putative enhancer sequences. Chromatin interaction data suggested that PTHLH was the likely target gene of these enhancers. Of the six variants with the strongest evidence of potential functionality, rs11049453 was statistically significantly associated with the expression of PTHLH and its nearby gene CCDC91 at P < 0.05. Conclusion: This study identified four independent association signals at 12p11 and revealed potentially functional variants, providing additional insights into the underlying biological mechanism(s) for the association observed between variants at 12p11 and breast cancer risk.
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| 8. |
- Antoniou, Antonis C., et al.
(författare)
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A locus on 19p13 modifies risk of breast cancer in BRCA1 mutation carriers and is associated with hormone receptor-negative breast cancer in the general population
- 2010
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-1718 .- 1061-4036. ; 42:10, s. 885-892
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Germline BRCA1 mutations predispose to breast cancer. To identify genetic modifiers of this risk, we performed a genome-wide association study in 1,193 individuals with BRCA1 mutations who were diagnosed with invasive breast cancer under age 40 and 1,190 BRCA1 carriers without breast cancer diagnosis over age 35. We took forward 96 SNPs for replication in another 5,986 BRCA1 carriers (2,974 individuals with breast cancer and 3,012 unaffected individuals). Five SNPs on 19p13 were associated with breast cancer risk (P-trend = 2.3 x 10(-9) to Ptrend = 3.9 x 10(-7)), two of which showed independent associations (rs8170, hazard ratio (HR) = 1.26, 95% CI 1.17-1.35; rs2363956 HR = 0.84, 95% CI 0.80-0.89). Genotyping these SNPs in 6,800 population-based breast cancer cases and 6,613 controls identified a similar association with estrogen receptor-negative breast cancer (rs2363956 per-allele odds ratio (OR) = 0.83, 95% CI 0.75-0.92, P-trend = 0.0003) and an association with estrogen receptor-positive disease in the opposite direction (OR = 1.07, 95% CI 1.01-1.14, P-trend = 0.016). The five SNPs were also associated with triple-negative breast cancer in a separate study of 2,301 triple-negative cases and 3,949 controls (Ptrend = 1 x 10(-7) to Ptrend = 8 x 10(-5); rs2363956 per-allele OR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.74-0.87, P-trend = 1.1 x 10(-7)).
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| 9. |
- Couch, Fergus J., et al.
(författare)
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Identification of four novel susceptibility loci for oestrogen receptor negative breast cancer
- 2016
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. - 2041-1723. ; 7:11375, s. 1-13
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Common variants in 94 loci have been associated with breast cancer including 15 loci with genome-wide significant associations (P<5 x 10(-8)) with oestrogen receptor (ER)-negative breast cancer and BRCA1-associated breast cancer risk. In this study, to identify new ER-negative susceptibility loci, we performed a meta-analysis of 11 genome-wide association studies (GWAS) consisting of 4,939 ER-negative cases and 14,352 controls, combined with 7,333 ER-negative cases and 42,468 controls and 15,252 BRCA1 mutation carriers genotyped on the iCOGS array. We identify four previously unidentified loci including two loci at 13q22 near KLF5, a 2p23.2 locus near WDR43 and a 2q33 locus near PPIL3 that display genome-wide significant associations with ER-negative breast cancer. In addition, 19 known breast cancer risk loci have genome-wide significant associations and 40 had moderate associations (P<0.05) with ER-negative disease. Using functional and eQTL studies we implicate TRMT61B and WDR43 at 2p23.2 and PPIL3 at 2q33 in ER-negative breast cancer aetiology. All ER-negative loci combined account for similar to 11% of familial relative risk for ER-negative disease and may contribute to improved ER-negative and BRCA1 breast cancer risk prediction.
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| 10. |
- Ding, Yuan C, et al.
(författare)
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A nonsynonymous polymorphism in IRS1 modifies risk of developing breast and ovarian cancers in BRCA1 and ovarian cancer in BRCA2 mutation carriers
- 2012
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Ingår i: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers and Prevention. - : American Association for Cancer Research. - 1055-9965 .- 1538-7755. ; 21:8, s. 1362-1370
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: We previously reported significant associations between genetic variants in insulin receptor substrate 1 (IRS1) and breast cancer risk in women carrying BRCA1 mutations. The objectives of this study were to investigate whether the IRS1 variants modified ovarian cancer risk and were associated with breast cancer risk in a larger cohort of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers.METHODS: IRS1 rs1801123, rs1330645, and rs1801278 were genotyped in samples from 36 centers in the Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/2 (CIMBA). Data were analyzed by a retrospective cohort approach modeling the associations with breast and ovarian cancer risks simultaneously. Analyses were stratified by BRCA1 and BRCA2 status and mutation class in BRCA1 carriers.RESULTS: Rs1801278 (Gly972Arg) was associated with ovarian cancer risk for both BRCA1 (HR, 1.43; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.06-1.92; P = 0.019) and BRCA2 mutation carriers (HR, 2.21; 95% CI, 1.39-3.52, P = 0.0008). For BRCA1 mutation carriers, the breast cancer risk was higher in carriers with class II mutations than class I mutations (class II HR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.28-2.70; class I HR, 0.86; 95%CI, 0.69-1.09; P(difference), 0.0006). Rs13306465 was associated with ovarian cancer risk in BRCA1 class II mutation carriers (HR, 2.42; P = 0.03).CONCLUSION: The IRS1 Gly972Arg single-nucleotide polymorphism, which affects insulin-like growth factor and insulin signaling, modifies ovarian cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers and breast cancer risk in BRCA1 class II mutation carriers.Impact: These findings may prove useful for risk prediction for breast and ovarian cancers in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers.
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