| 1. |
- Scaife, A. A., et al.
(författare)
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Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters
- 2014
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 41:7, s. 2514-2519
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Until recently, long-range forecast systems showed only modest levels of skill in predicting surface winter climate around the Atlantic Basin and associated fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation at seasonal lead times. Here we use a new forecast system to assess seasonal predictability of winter North Atlantic climate. We demonstrate that key aspects of European and North American winter climate and the surface North Atlantic Oscillation are highly predictable months ahead. We demonstrate high levels of prediction skill in retrospective forecasts of the surface North Atlantic Oscillation, winter storminess, near-surface temperature, and wind speed, all of which have high value for planning and adaptation to extreme winter conditions. Analysis of forecast ensembles suggests that while useful levels of seasonal forecast skill have now been achieved, key sources of predictability are still only partially represented and there is further untapped predictability. The winter NAO can be skilfully predicted months ahead The signal-to-noise ratio of the predictable signal is anomalously low Predictions of the risk of regional winter extremes are possible
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| 2. |
- Knight, J. R., et al.
(författare)
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Global meteorological influences on the record UK rainfall of winter 2013-14
- 2017
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 12:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The UK experienced record average rainfall in winter 2013-14, leading to widespread and prolonged flooding. The immediate cause of this exceptional rainfall was a very strong and persistent cyclonic atmospheric circulation over the North East Atlantic Ocean. This was related to a very strong North Atlantic jet stream which resulted in numerous damaging wind storms. These exceptional meteorological conditions have led to renewed questions about whether anthropogenic climate change is noticeably influencing extreme weather. The regional weather pattern responsible for the extreme UK winter coincided with highly anomalous conditions across the globe. We assess the contributions from various possible remote forcing regions using sets of ocean-atmosphere model relaxation experiments, where winds and temperatures are constrained to be similar to those observed in winter 2013-14 within specified atmospheric domains. We find that influences from the tropics were likely to have played a significant role in the development of the unusual extra-tropical circulation, including a role for the tropical Atlantic sector. Additionally, a stronger and more stable stratospheric polar vortex, likely associated with a strong westerly phase of the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), appears to have contributed to the extreme conditions. While intrinsic climatic variability clearly has the largest effect on the generation of extremes, results from an analysis which segregates circulation-related and residual rainfall variability suggest that emerging climate change signals made a secondary contribution to extreme rainfall in winter 2013-14.
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| 3. |
- Ampatzoglou, A., et al.
(författare)
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Effects of increased wholegrain consumption on immune and inflammatory markers in healthy low habitual wholegrain consumers.
- 2016
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Ingår i: European Journal of Nutrition. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-6207 .- 1436-6215. ; 55:1, s. 183-195
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wholegrain (WG) consumption is associated with reduced risk of cardiovascular disease, but clinical data on inflammation and immune function is either conflicting or limited. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of increasing WG consumption to at least 80 g/day on markers of inflammation and glucose metabolism and on phenotypic and functional aspects of the immune system, in healthy, middle-aged adults with low habitual WG intake. Subjects consumed a diet high in WG (> 80 g/day) or low in WG (
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| 4. |
- Ampatzoglou, A., et al.
(författare)
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Increased Whole Grain Consumption Does Not Affect Blood Biochemistry, Body Composition, or Gut Microbiology in Healthy, Low-Habitual Whole Grain Consumers
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Nutrition. - : Elsevier BV. - 1541-6100 .- 0022-3166. ; 145:2, s. 215-221
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Whole-grain (WG) foods have been suggested to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease, but studies are inconsistent and effects on cardiovascular risk markers are not clear. Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the impact of increasing WG consumption to at least 80 g/d on overall dietary intake, body composition, blood pressure (BP), blood lipids, blood glucose, gastrointestinal microbiology, and gastrointestinal symptoms in healthy, middle-aged adults with habitual WG intake 80 g/d) or low in WG[
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