| 1. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 2. |
- Fischer, Katrin, et al.
(författare)
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The scaffold protein p62 regulates adaptive thermogenesis through ATF2 nuclear target activation
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 11:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- During beta -adrenergic stimulation of brown adipose tissue (BAT), p38 phosphorylates the activating transcription factor 2 (ATF2) which then translocates to the nucleus to activate the expression of Ucp1 and Pgc-1 alpha. The mechanisms underlying ATF2 target activation are unknown. Here we demonstrate that p62 (Sqstm1) binds to ATF2 to orchestrate activation of the Ucp1 enhancer and Pgc-1 alpha promoter. P62(Delta 69-251) mice show reduced expression of Ucp1 and Pgc-1 alpha with impaired ATF2 genomic binding. Modulation of Ucp1 and Pgc-1 alpha expression through p62 regulation of ATF2 signaling is demonstrated in vitro and in vivo in p62(Delta 69-251) mice, global p62(-/-) and Ucp1-Cre p62(flx/flx) mice. BAT dysfunction resulting from p62 deficiency is manifest after birth and obesity subsequently develops despite normal food intake, intestinal nutrient absorption and locomotor activity. In summary, our data identify p62 as a master regulator of BAT function in that it controls the Ucp1 pathway through regulation of ATF2 genomic binding. Beta-adrenergic stimulation of brown adipose tissue leads to thermogenesis via the activating transcription factor 2 (ATF2) mediated expression of the thermogenic genes Ucp1 and Pgc-1 alpha. Here, the authors show that the scaffold protein p62 regulates brown adipose tissue function through modifying ATF2 genomic binding and subsequent Ucp1 and Pgc-1 alpha induction.
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| 3. |
- Thienel, Manuela, et al.
(författare)
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Immobility-associated thromboprotection is conserved across mammalian species from bear to human
- 2023
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 380:6641, s. 178-187
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Venous thromboembolism (VTE) comprising deep venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Short-term immobility-related conditions are a major risk factor for the development of VTE. Paradoxically, long-term immobilized free-ranging hibernating brown bears and paralyzed spinal cord injury (SCI) patients are protected from VTE. We aimed to identify mechanisms of immobility-associated VTE protection in a cross-species approach. Mass spectrometry-based proteomics revealed an antithrombotic signature in platelets of hibernating brown bears with heat shock protein 47 (HSP47) as the most substantially reduced protein. HSP47 down-regulation or ablation attenuated immune cell activation and neutrophil extracellular trap formation, contributing to thromboprotection in bears, SCI patients, and mice. This cross-species conserved platelet signature may give rise to antithrombotic therapeutics and prognostic markers beyond immobility-associated VTE.
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