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- Sridhar, Arun R., et al.
(författare)
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Identifying Risk of Adverse Outcomes in COVID-19 Patients via Artificial Intelligence-Powered Analysis of 12-Lead Intake Electrocardiogram.
- 2022
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Ingår i: Cardiovascular digital health journal. - : Elsevier. - 2666-6936. ; 3:2, s. 62-74
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Adverse events in COVID-19 are difficult to predict. Risk stratification is encumbered by the need to protect healthcare workers. We hypothesize that AI can help identify subtle signs of myocardial involvement in the 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG), which could help predict complications.Objective: Use intake ECGs from COVID-19 patients to train AI models to predict risk of mortality or major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE).Methods: We studied intake ECGs from 1448 COVID-19 patients (60.5% male, 63.4±16.9 years). Records were labeled by mortality (death vs. discharge) or MACE (no events vs. arrhythmic, heart failure [HF], or thromboembolic [TE] events), then used to train AI models; these were compared to conventional regression models developed using demographic and comorbidity data.Results: 245 (17.7%) patients died (67.3% male, 74.5±14.4 years); 352 (24.4%) experienced at least one MACE (119 arrhythmic; 107 HF; 130 TE). AI models predicted mortality and MACE with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.60±0.05 and 0.55±0.07, respectively; these were comparable to AUC values for conventional models (0.73±0.07 and 0.65±0.10). There were no prominent temporal trends in mortality rate or MACE incidence in our cohort; holdout testing with data from after a cutoff date (June 9, 2020) did not degrade model performance.Conclusion: Using intake ECGs alone, our AI models had limited ability to predict hospitalized COVID-19 patients' risk of mortality or MACE. Our models' accuracy was comparable to that of conventional models built using more in-depth information, but translation to clinical use would require higher sensitivity and positive predictive value. In the future, we hope that mixed-input AI models utilizing both ECG and clinical data may be developed to enhance predictive accuracy.
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| 2. |
- Koivumäki, Jussi T., et al.
(författare)
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Computational cardiac physiology for new modelers : Origins, foundations, and future
- 2022
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Ingår i: Acta Physiologica. - : Wiley. - 1748-1708 .- 1748-1716. ; 236:2
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Mathematical models of the cardiovascular system have come a long way since they were first introduced in the early 19th century. Driven by a rapid development of experimental techniques, numerical methods, and computer hardware, detailed models that describe physical scales from the molecular level up to organs and organ systems have been derived and used for physiological research. Mathematical and computational models can be seen as condensed and quantitative formulations of extensive physiological knowledge and are used for formulating and testing hypotheses, interpreting and directing experimental research, and have contributed substantially to our understanding of cardiovascular physiology. However, in spite of the strengths of mathematics to precisely describe complex relationships and the obvious need for the mathematical and computational models to be informed by experimental data, there still exist considerable barriers between experimental and computational physiological research. In this review, we present a historical overview of the development of mathematical and computational models in cardiovascular physiology, including the current state of the art. We further argue why a tighter integration is needed between experimental and computational scientists in physiology, and point out important obstacles and challenges that must be overcome in order to fully realize the synergy of experimental and computational physiological research.
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