| 1. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 2. |
- Haynes, Roger, et al.
(författare)
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The 4MOST instrument concept overview
- 2014
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Ingår i: Ground-based and Airborne Instrumentation for Astronomy V. - : SPIE. - 0277-786X .- 1996-756X. ; 9147, s. 91476-91476
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The 4MOST([1]) instrument is a concept for a wide-field, fibre-fed high multiplex spectroscopic instrument facility on the ESO VISTA telescope designed to perform a massive (initially >25x10(6) spectra in 5 years) combined all-sky public survey. The main science drivers are: Gaia follow up of chemo-dynamical structure of the Milky Way, stellar radial velocities, parameters and abundances, chemical tagging; eROSITA follow up of cosmology with x-ray clusters of galaxies, X-ray AGN/galaxy evolution to z similar to 5, Galactic X-ray sources and resolving the Galactic edge; Euclid/LSST/SKA and other survey follow up of Dark Energy, Galaxy evolution and transients. The surveys will be undertaken simultaneously requiring: highly advanced targeting and scheduling software, also comprehensive data reduction and analysis tools to produce high-level data products. The instrument will allow simultaneous observations of similar to 1600 targets at R similar to 5,000 from 390-900nm and similar to 800 targets at R>18,000 in three channels between similar to 395-675nm (channel bandwidth: 45nm blue, 57nm green and 69nm red) over a hexagonal field of view of similar to 4.1 degrees2. The initial 5-year 4MOST survey is currently expect to start in 2020. We provide and overview of the 4MOST systems: opto-mechanical, control, data management and operations concepts; and initial performance estimates.
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| 3. |
- McBrien, Owen R., et al.
(författare)
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SN2018kzr : A Rapidly Declining Transient from the Destruction of a White Dwarf
- 2019
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8205 .- 2041-8213. ; 885:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present SN2018kzr, the fastest declining supernova-like transient, second only to the kilonova, AT2017gfo. SN2018kzr is characterized by a peak magnitude of M-r & xfffd;=& xfffd;?17.98, a peak bolometric luminosity of ?1.4 & xfffd;& x5e0;10(43) erg s(?1), and a rapid decline rate of 0.48 & xfffd;& xfffd;0.03 mag day(?1) in the r band. The bolometric luminosity evolves too quickly to be explained by pure Ni-56 heating, necessitating the inclusion of an alternative powering source. Incorporating the spin-down of a magnetized neutron star adequately describes the lightcurve and we estimate a small ejecta mass of M-ej & xfffd;=& xfffd;0.10 & xfffd;& xfffd;0.05 M. Our spectral modeling suggests the ejecta is composed of intermediate mass elements including O, Si, and Mg and trace amounts of Fe-peak elements, which disfavors a binary neutron star merger. We discuss three explosion scenarios for SN2018kzr, given the low ejecta mass, intermediate mass element composition, and high likelihood of additional powering?the core collapse of an ultra-stripped progenitor, the accretion induced collapse (AIC) of a white dwarf, and the merger of a white dwarf and neutron star. The requirement for an alternative input energy source favors either the AIC with magnetar powering or a white dwarf?neutron star merger with energy from disk wind shocks.
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| 4. |
- Ward, Sam M., et al.
(författare)
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Relative Intrinsic Scatter in Hierarchical Type Ia Supernova Sibling Analyses : Application to SNe 2021hpr, 1997bq, and 2008fv in NGC 3147
- 2023
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 956:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present Young Supernova Experiment grizy photometry of SN 2021hpr, the third Type Ia supernova sibling to explode in the Cepheid calibrator galaxy, NGC 3147. Siblings are useful for improving SN-host distance estimates and investigating their contributions toward the SN Ia intrinsic scatter (post-standardization residual scatter in distance estimates). We thus develop a principled Bayesian framework for analyzing SN Ia siblings. At its core is the cosmology-independent relative intrinsic scatter parameter, σRel: the dispersion of siblings distance estimates relative to one another within a galaxy. It quantifies the contribution toward the total intrinsic scatter, σ0, from within-galaxy variations about the siblings' common properties. It also affects the combined distance uncertainty. We present analytic formulae for computing a σRel posterior from individual siblings distances (estimated using any SN model). Applying a newly trained BAYESN model, we fit the light curves of each sibling in NGC 3147 individually, to yield consistent distance estimates. However, the wide σRel posterior means σRel ≈ σ0 is not ruled out. We thus combine the distances by marginalizing over σRel with an informative prior: σRel ∼ U(0, σ0). Simultaneously fitting the trio's light curves improves constraints on distance and each sibling's individual dust parameters, compared to individual fits. Higher correlation also tightens dust parameter constraints. Therefore, σRel marginalization yields robust estimates of siblings distances for cosmology, as well as dust parameters for sibling–host correlation studies. Incorporating NGC 3147's Cepheid distance yields H0 = 78.4 ± 6.5 km s−1 Mpc−1. Our work motivates analyses of homogeneous siblings samples, to constrain σRel and its SN-model dependence.
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| 5. |
- Böhm, Johann, et al.
(författare)
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Mutation spectrum in the large GTPase dynamin 2, and genotype-phenotype correlation in autosomal dominant centronuclear myopathy.
- 2012
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Ingår i: Human mutation. - : Hindawi Limited. - 1098-1004 .- 1059-7794. ; 33:6, s. 949-59
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Centronuclear myopathy (CNM) is a genetically heterogeneous disorder associated with general skeletal muscle weakness, type I fiber predominance and atrophy, and abnormally centralized nuclei. Autosomal dominant CNM is due to mutations in the large GTPase dynamin 2 (DNM2), a mechanochemical enzyme regulating cytoskeleton and membrane trafficking in cells. To date, 40 families with CNM-related DNM2 mutations have been described, and here we report 60 additional families encompassing a broad genotypic and phenotypic spectrum. In total, 18 different mutations are reported in 100 families and our cohort harbors nine known and four new mutations, including the first splice-site mutation. Genotype-phenotype correlation hypotheses are drawn from the published and new data, and allow an efficient screening strategy for molecular diagnosis. In addition to CNM, dissimilar DNM2 mutations are associated with Charcot-Marie-Tooth (CMT) peripheral neuropathy (CMTD1B and CMT2M), suggesting a tissue-specific impact of the mutations. In this study, we discuss the possible clinical overlap of CNM and CMT, and the biological significance of the respective mutations based on the known functions of dynamin 2 and its protein structure. Defects in membrane trafficking due to DNM2 mutations potentially represent a common pathological mechanism in CNM and CMT.
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| 6. |
- de Jong, Roelof S., et al.
(författare)
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4MOST-4-metre Multi-Object Spectroscopic Telescope
- 2014
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Ingår i: Ground-based and Airborne Instrumentation for Astronomy V. - : SPIE. - 0277-786X .- 1996-756X. ; 9147
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- 4MOST is a wide-field, high-multiplex spectroscopic survey facility under development for the VISTA telescope of the European Southern Observatory (ESO). Its main science drivers are in the fields of galactic archeology, high-energy physics, galaxy evolution and cosmology. 4MOST will in particular provide the spectroscopic complements to the large area surveys coming from space missions like Gaia, eROSITA, Euclid, and PLATO and from ground-based facilities like VISTA, VST, DES, LSST and SKA. The 4MOST baseline concept features a 2.5 degree diameter field-of-view with similar to 2400 fibres in the focal surface that are configured by a fibre positioner based on the tilting spine principle. The fibres feed two types of spectrographs; similar to 1600 fibres go to two spectrographs with resolution R> 5000 (lambda similar to 390-930 nm) and similar to 800 fibres to a spectrograph with R> 18,000 (lambda similar to 392-437 nm & 515-572 nm & 605-675 nm). Both types of spectrographs are fixed-configuration, three-channel spectrographs. 4MOST will have an unique operations concept in which 5 year public surveys from both the consortium and the ESO community will be combined and observed in parallel during each exposure, resulting in more than 25 million spectra of targets spread over a large fraction of the southern sky. The 4MOST Facility Simulator (4FS) was developed to demonstrate the feasibility of this observing concept. 4MOST has been accepted for implementation by ESO with operations expected to start by the end of 2020. This paper provides a top-level overview of the 4MOST facility, while other papers in these proceedings provide more detailed descriptions of the instrument concept[1], the instrument requirements development[2], the systems engineering implementation[3], the instrument model[4], the fibre positioner concepts[5], the fibre feed[6], and the spectrographs[7].
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| 7. |
- Mandel, Ronald J, et al.
(författare)
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Novel oligodendroglial alpha synuclein viral vector models of multiple system atrophy : studies in rodents and nonhuman primates
- 2017
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Ingår i: Acta Neuropathologica Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2051-5960. ; 5:1, s. 47-47
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Multiple system atrophy (MSA) is a horrible and unrelenting neurodegenerative disorder with an uncertain etiology and pathophysiology. MSA is a unique proteinopathy in which alpha-synuclein (α-syn) accumulates preferentially in oligodendroglia rather than neurons. Glial cytoplasmic inclusions (GCIs) of α-syn are thought to elicit changes in oligodendrocyte function, such as reduced neurotrophic support and demyelination, leading to neurodegeneration. To date, only a murine model using one of three promoters exist to study this disease. We sought to develop novel rat and nonhuman primate (NHP) models of MSA by overexpressing α-syn in oligodendroglia using a novel oligotrophic adeno-associated virus (AAV) vector, Olig001. To establish tropism, rats received intrastriatal injections of Olig001 expressing GFP. Histological analysis showed widespread expression of GFP throughout the striatum and corpus callosum with >95% of GFP+ cells co-localizing with oligodendroglia and little to no expression in neurons or astrocytes. We next tested the efficacy of this vector in rhesus macaques with intrastriatal injections of Olig001 expressing GFP. As in rats, we observed a large number of GFP+ cells in gray matter and white matter tracts of the striatum and the corpus callosum, with 90-94% of GFP+ cells co-localizing with an oligodendroglial marker. To evaluate the potential of our vector to elicit MSA-like pathology in NHPs, we injected rhesus macaques intrastriatally with Olig001 expressing the α-syn transgene. Histological analysis 3-months after injection demonstrated widespread α-syn expression throughout the striatum as determined by LB509 and phosphorylated serine-129 α-syn immunoreactivity, all of which displayed as tropism similar to that seen with GFP. As in MSA, Olig001-α-syn GCIs in our model were resistant to proteinase K digestion and caused microglial activation. Critically, demyelination was observed in the white matter tracts of the corpus callosum and striatum of Olig001-α-syn but not Olig001-GFP injected animals, similar to the human disease. These data support the concept that this vector can provide novel rodent and nonhuman primate models of MSA.
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| 8. |
- Pinto, Rita, et al.
(författare)
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Identification of new cancer biomarkers based on aberrant mucin glycoforms by in situ proximity ligation
- 2012
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Ingår i: Journal of Cellular and Molecular Medicine (Print). - : Wiley. - 1582-1838 .- 1582-4934. ; 16:7, s. 1474-1484
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Mucin glycoproteins are major secreted or membrane-bound molecules that, in cancer, show modifications in both the mucin proteins expression and in the O-glycosylation profile, generating some of the most relevant tumour markers in clinical use for decades. Thus far, the identification of these biomarkers has been based on the detection of either the protein or the O-glycan modifications. We therefore aimed to identify the combined mucin and O-glycan features, i.e. specific glycoforms, in an attempt to increase specificity of these cancer biomarkers. Using in situ proximity ligation assays (PLA) based on existing monoclonal antibodies directed to MUC1, MUC2, MUC5AC and MUC6 mucins and to cancer-associated carbohydrate antigens Tn, Sialyl-Tn (STn), T, Sialyl-Lea (SLea) and Sialyl-Lex (SLex) we screened a series of 28 mucinous adenocarcinomas from different locations (stomach, ampulla of Vater, colon, lung, breast and ovary) to detect specific mucin glycoforms. We detected Tn/STn/SLea/SLex-MUC1 and STn/SLea/SLex-MUC2 glycoforms in ≥50% of the cases, with a variable distribution among organs. Some new glycoforms – T/SLea-MUC2, STn/T/SLea/SLex-MUC5AC and STn/T/SLea/SLex-MUC6 – were identified for the first time in the present study in a variable percentage of cases from different organs. In conclusion, application of the PLA technique allowed sensitive detection of specific aberrant mucin glycoforms in cancer, increasing specificity to the use of antibodies either to the mucin protein backbone or the O-glycan haptens alone.
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| 9. |
- Ricardo, Sara, et al.
(författare)
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Detection of glyco-mucin profiles improves specificity of MUC16 and MUC1 biomarkers in ovarian serous tumours
- 2015
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Ingår i: Molecular Oncology. - : Wiley. - 1574-7891 .- 1878-0261. ; 9:2, s. 503-512
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The CA125 assay detects circulating MUC16 and is one of the most widely used cancer biomarkers for the follow-up of ovarian cancer. We previously demonstrated that detection of aberrant cancer-associated glycoforms of MUC16 as well as MUC1 in circulation could improve the yield of these serum assays. Our aim was to refine ovarian cancer biomarkers by detection of aberrant glycoforms (Tn, STn, and T) of MUC16 and MUC1 in ovarian cancer tissue using Proximity Ligation Assays (PLA). We studied two series of serous ovarian tumours, a pilot series of 66 ovarian tumours (27 cystadenomas, 16 borderline tumours and 23 adenocarcinomas) from Centro Hospitalar S. João, Porto and a validation series of 89 ovarian tumours (17 cystadenomas, 25 borderline tumours and 47 adenocarcinomas) from the Portuguese Institute of Oncology Francisco Gentil, Lisbon. PLA reactions for MUC16/Tn, MUC16/STn, MUC1/Tn and MUC1/STn were negative in benign lesions but often positive in borderline and malignant lesions, in both series. An even better yield was obtained based on positivity for any of the four glyco-mucin profiles, further increasing sensitivity to 72% and 83% in the two series, respectively, with 100% specificity. The strategy is designated glyco-mucin profiling and provides strong support for development of PLA-based serum assays for early diagnosis.
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| 10. |
- Vazquez, Sara E., et al.
(författare)
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Autoantibody discovery across monogenic, acquired, and COVID-19-associated autoimmunity with scalable PhIP-seq
- 2022
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Phage immunoprecipitation sequencing (PhIP-seq) allows for unbiased, proteome-wide autoantibody discovery across a variety of disease settings, with identification of disease-specific autoantigens providing new insight into previously poorly understood forms of immune dysregulation. Despite several successful implementations of PhIP-seq for autoantigen discovery, including our previous work (Vazquez et al., 2020), current protocols are inherently difficult to scale to accommodate large cohorts of cases and importantly, healthy controls. Here, we develop and validate a high throughput extension of PhIP-seq in various etiologies of autoimmune and inflammatory diseases, including APS1, IPEX, RAG1/2 deficiency, Kawasaki disease (KD), multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C), and finally, mild and severe forms of COVID-19. We demonstrate that these scaled datasets enable machine-learning approaches that result in robust prediction of disease status, as well as the ability to detect both known and novel autoantigens, such as prodynorphin (PDYN) in APS1 patients, and intestinally expressed proteins BEST4 and BTNL8 in IPEX patients. Remarkably, BEST4 antibodies were also found in two patients with RAG1/2 deficiency, one of whom had very early onset IBD. Scaled PhIP-seq examination of both MIS-C and KD demonstrated rare, overlapping antigens, including CGNL1, as well as several strongly enriched putative pneumonia-associated antigens in severe COVID-19, including the endosomal protein EEA1. Together, scaled PhIP-seq provides a valuable tool for broadly assessing both rare and common autoantigen overlap between autoimmune diseases of varying origins and etiologies.
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