| 1. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 2. |
- Ambrosio, M, et al.
(författare)
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The MACRO detector at Gran Sasso
- 2002
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Ingår i: Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research Section A. - : Elsevier. - 0168-9002 .- 1872-9576. ; 486:3, s. 663-707
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- MACRO was an experiment that ran in the Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso from 1988 to 2000. Its principal goal was to observe magnetic monopoles or set significantly lower experimental flux limits than had been previously available in the velocity range from about beta = 10(-4) to unity. In addition it made a variety of other observations. Examples are: setting flux limits on other so far unobserved particles such as nuclearites and lightly ionizing particles, searching for WIMP annihilations in the Earth and the Sun and for neutrino bursts from stellar collapses in or near our Galaxy, and making measurements relevant to high energy muon and neutrino astronomy and of the flux of up-going muons as a function of nadir angle showing evidence for neutrino oscillations. The apparatus consisted of three principal types of detectors: liquid scintillator counters, limited streamer tubes, and nuclear track etch detectors. In addition, over part of its area it contained a transition radiation detector. The general design philosophy emphasized redundancy and complementarity. This paper describes the technical aspects of the complete MACRO detector, its operational performance, and the techniques used to calibrate it and verify its proper operation. It supplements a previously published paper which described the first portion of the detector that was built and operated. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 3. |
- Ambrosio, M, et al.
(författare)
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Atmospheric neutrino oscillations from upward throughgoing muon multiple scattering in MACRO
- 2003
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Ingår i: Physics Letters B. - 0370-2693 .- 1873-2445. ; 566:1-2, s. 35-44
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The energy of atmospheric neutrinos detected by MACRO was estimated using multiple Coulomb scattering of upward throughgoing muons. This analysis allows a test of atmospheric neutrino oscillations, relying on the distortion of the muon energy distribution. These results have been combined with those coming from the upward throughgoing muon angular distribution only. Both analyses are independent of the neutrino flux normalization and provide strong evidence, above the for level, in favour of neutrino oscillations. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.
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| 4. |
- Ambrosio, M, et al.
(författare)
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Final results of magnetic monopole searches with the MACRO experiment
- 2002
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Ingår i: European Physical Journal C. - : Springer. - 1434-6044 .- 1434-6052. ; 25:4, s. 511-522
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present the final results obtained by the MACRO experiment in the search for GUT magnetic monopoles in the penetrating cosmic radiation, for the range 4 x 10(-5) < 3 < 1. Several searches with all the MACRO sub-detectors (i.e. scintillation counters, limited streamer tubes and nuclear track detectors) were performed, both in stand alone and combined ways. No candidates were detected and a 90% Confidence Level (C.L.) upper limit to the local magnetic monopole flux was set at the level of 1.4 x 10(-16) cm(-2) s(-1) sr(-1). This result is the first experimental limit obtained in direct searches which is well below the Parker bound in the whole 3 range in which GUT magnetic monopoles are,expected.
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| 5. |
- Ambrosio, M, et al.
(författare)
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Moon and Sun shadowing effect in the MACRO detector
- 2003
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Ingår i: Astroparticle physics. - : Elsevier. - 0927-6505 .- 1873-2852. ; 20:2, s. 145-156
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using data collected by the MACRO experiment from 1989 to the end of its operations in 2000, we have studied in the underground muon flux the shadowing. effects due to both the Moon and the Sun. We have observed the shadow cast by the Moon at its apparent position with a significance of 6.5sigma. The Moon shadowing effect has been used to verify the pointing capability of the detector and to determine the instrument resolution for the search of muon excesses from any direction of the celestial sphere. The dependence of the effect on the geomagnetic field is clearly shown by splitting the data sample in day and night observations. The Sun shadow, observed with a significance of 4.6sigma is displaced by about 0.6degrees from its apparent position. In this case however the explanation resides in the configuration of the Solar and Interplanetary Magnetic Fields, which affect the propagation of cosmic ray particles between the Sun, and the Earth. The displacement of the Sun shadow with respect to the real Sun position has been used to establish an upper limit on the antimatter flux in cosmic rays of about 48% at 68% c.l. and primary energies of about 20 TeV. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 6. |
- Ambrosio, M, et al.
(författare)
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Search for nucleon decays induced by GUT magnetic monopoles with the MACRO experiment
- 2002
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Ingår i: European Physical Journal C. - : Springer. - 1434-6044 .- 1434-6052. ; 26:2, s. 163-172
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The interaction of a Grand Unification Magnetic Monopole with a nucleon can lead to a barion-number violating process in which the nucleon decays into a lepton and one or more mesons (catalysis of nucleon decay). In this paper we report an experimental study of the effects of a catalysis process in the MACRO detector. Using a dedicated analysis we obtain new magnetic monopole (MM) flux upper limits at the level of similar to 3 (.) 10(-16) cm(-2) s(-1) sr(-1) for 1.1(.) 10(-4) less than or equal to \beta\ less than or equal to 5 (.) 10(-3), based on the search for catalysis events in the MACRO data. We also analyze the dependence of the MM flux limit on the catalysis cross section.
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| 7. |
- Ambrosio, M, et al.
(författare)
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A combined analysis technique for the search for fast magnetic monopoles with the MACRO detector
- 2002
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Ingår i: Astroparticle physics. - : Elsevier. - 0927-6505 .- 1873-2852. ; 18:1, s. 27-41
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We describe a search method for fast moving (beta = v/c > 5 x 10(-3)) magnetic monopoles using simultaneously the scintillator, streamer tube and track-etch subdetectors of the MACRO apparatus. The first two subdetectors are used primarily for the identification of candidates while the track-etch one is used as the final tool for their rejection or confirmation. Using this technique, a first sample of more than two-years of data has been analyzed without any evidence of a magnetic monopole. We set a 90% CL upper limit to the local monopole flux of 1.5 x 10(-15) cm(-2) s(-1) sr(-1) in the velocity range 5 x 10(-3) less than or equal to beta less than or equal to 0.99 and for nucleon decay catalysis cross-section smaller than similar to1 mb (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 8. |
- Ambrosio, M, et al.
(författare)
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Measurements of atmospheric muon neutrino oscillations, global analysis of the data collected with MACRO detector
- 2004
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Ingår i: European Physical Journal C. - : Springer. - 1434-6044 .- 1434-6052. ; 36:3, s. 323-339
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The final analysis of atmospheric neutrino events collected with the MACRO detector is presented. Three different classes of events, generated by neutrinos in different energy ranges, are studied looking at rates, angular distributions and estimated energies. The results are consistent for all the subsamples and indicate a flux deficit that depends on energy and path - length of neutrinos. The no - oscillation hypothesis is excluded at similar to 5sigma, while the hypothesis of nu(mu) --> nu(tau) oscillation gives a satisfactory description of all data. The parameters with highest probability in a two flavor scenario are sin(2) 2theta(m) = 1 and Deltam(2) = 0.0023 eV(2). This result is independent of the absolute normalization of the atmospheric neutrino fluxes. The data can also be used to put experimental constrain on this normalization.
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| 9. |
- Togo, V, et al.
(författare)
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Calibrations of CR39 and Makrofol nuclear track detectors and search for exotic particles
- 2003
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Ingår i: Nuclear physics B, Proceedings supplements. - : Elsevier. - 0920-5632 .- 1873-3832. ; 125, s. 217-221
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present the final results of the search for exotic massive particles in the cosmic radiation performed with the MACRO underground experiment. Magnetic monopoles and nuclearites flux upper limits obtained with the CR39 nuclear track subdetector, the scintillation and streamer tube subdetectors are given. Searches at high altitude with the SLIM experiment are in progress.
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| 10. |
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