| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Ramos, Vitor, et al.
(författare)
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Cyanobacterial diversity held in microbial biological resource centers as a biotechnological asset : the case study of the newly established LEGE culture collection
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of Applied Phycology. - : SPRINGER. - 0921-8971 .- 1573-5176. ; 30:3, s. 1437-1451
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Cyanobacteria are a well-known source of bioproducts which renders culturable strains a valuable resource for biotechnology purposes. We describe here the establishment of a cyanobacterial culture collection (CC) and present the first version of the strain catalog and its online database . The LEGE CC holds 386 strains, mainly collected in coastal (48%), estuarine (11%), and fresh (34%) water bodies, for the most part from Portugal (84%). By following the most recent taxonomic classification, LEGE CC strains were classified into at least 46 genera from six orders (41% belong to the Synechococcales), several of them are unique among the phylogenetic diversity of the cyanobacteria. For all strains, primary data were obtained and secondary data were surveyed and reviewed, which can be reached through the strain sheets either in the catalog or in the online database. An overview on the notable biodiversity of LEGE CC strains is showcased, including a searchable phylogenetic tree and images for all strains. With this work, 80% of the LEGE CC strains have now their 16S rRNA gene sequences deposited in GenBank. Also, based in primary data, it is demonstrated that several LEGE CC strains are a promising source of extracellular polymeric substances (EPS). Through a review of previously published data, it is exposed that LEGE CC strains have the potential or actual capacity to produce a variety of biotechnologically interesting compounds, including common cyanotoxins or unprecedented bioactive molecules. Phylogenetic diversity of LEGE CC strains does not entirely reflect chemodiversity. Further bioprospecting should, therefore, account for strain specificity of the valuable cyanobacterial holdings of LEGE CC.
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| 3. |
- Baloch, Ramen Munir, et al.
(författare)
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Indoor air pollution, physical and comfort parameters related to schoolchildren's health : Data from the European SINPHONIE study
- 2020
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Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : ELSEVIER. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 739
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Substantial knowledge is available on the association of the indoor school environment and its effect among schoolchildren. In the same context, the SINPHONIE (School indoor pollution and health: Observatory network in Europe) conducted a study to collect data and determine the distribution of several indoor air pollutants (IAPs), physical and thermal parameters and their association with eye, skin, upper-, lower respiratory and systemic disorder symptoms during the previous three months. Finally, data from 115 schools in 54 European cities from 23 countries were collected and included 5175 schoolchildren using a harmonized and standardized protocol. The association between exposures and the health outcomes were examined using logistic regression models on the environmental stressors assessed in classroom while adjusting for several confounding factors; a VOC (volatile organic compound) score defined as the sum of the number of pollutants to which the children were highly exposed (concentration > median of the distribution) in classroom was also introduced to evaluate the mul tiexposu re - outcome association. Schoolchildren while adjusting for several confounding factors. Schoolchildren exposed to above or equal median concentration of PM2.5, benzene, limonene, ozone and radon were at significantly higher odds of suffering from upper, lower airways, eye and systemic disorders. Increased odds were also observed for any symptom (sick school syndrome) among schoolchildren exposed to concentrations of limonene and ozone above median values. Furthermore, the risks for upper and lower airways and systemic disorders significantly increased with the VOCs score. Results also showed that increased ventilation rate was significantly associated with decreased odds of suffering from eye and skin disorders whereas similar association was observed between temperature and upper airways symptoms. The present study provides evidence that exposure to IAPs in schools is associated with various health problems in children. Further investigations are needed to confirm our findings. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 4. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 5. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 6. |
- Albert, F., et al.
(författare)
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Betatron x-ray radiation from laser-plasma accelerators driven by femtosecond and picosecond laser systems
- 2018
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Ingår i: Physics of Plasmas. - : AIP Publishing. - 1089-7674 .- 1070-664X. ; 25:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A comparative experimental study of betatron x-ray radiation from laser wakefield acceleration in the blowout and self-modulated regimes is presented. Our experiments use picosecond duration laser pulses up to 150 J (self-modulated regime) and 60 fs duration laser pulses up to 10 J (blowout regime), for plasmas with electronic densities on the order of 1019cm-3. In the self-modulated regime, where betatron radiation has been very little studied compared to the blowout regime, electrons accelerated in the wake of the laser pulse are subject to both the longitudinal plasma and transverse laser electrical fields. As a result, their motion within the wake is relatively complex; consequently, the experimental and theoretical properties of the x-ray source based on self-modulation differ from the blowout regime of laser wakefield acceleration. In our experimental configuration, electrons accelerated up to about 250 MeV and betatron x-ray spectra with critical energies of about 10-20 keV and photon fluxes between 108and 1010photons/eV Sr are reported. Our experiments open the prospect of using betatron x-ray radiation for applications, and the source is competitive with current x-ray backlighting methods on multi-kilojoule laser systems.
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| 7. |
- Briedis, Martins, et al.
(författare)
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A full annual perspective on sex-biased migration timing in long-distance migratory birds
- 2019
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences. - : The Royal Society. - 0962-8452 .- 1471-2954. ; 286:1897
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In many taxa, the most common form of sex-biased migration timing is protandry – the earlier arrival of males at breeding areas. Here we test this concept across the annual cycle of long-distance migratory birds. Using more than 350 migration tracks of small-bodied trans-Saharan migrants, we quantify differences in male and female migration schedules and test for proximate determinants of sex-specific timing. In autumn, males started migration about 2 days earlier, but this difference did not carry over to arrival at the non-breeding sites. In spring, males on average departed from the African non-breeding sites about 3 days earlier and reached breeding sites ca 4 days ahead of females. A cross-species comparison revealed large variation in the level of protandry and protogyny across the annual cycle. While we found tight links between individual timing of departure and arrival within each migration season, only for males the timing of spring migration was linked to the timing of previous autumn migration. In conclusion, our results demonstrate that protandry is not exclusively a reproductive strategy but rather occurs year-round and the two main proximate determinants for the magnitude of sex-biased arrival times in autumn and spring are sex-specific differences in departure timing and migration duration.
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| 8. |
- Briedis, Martins, et al.
(författare)
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Broad-scale patterns of the Afro-Palaearctic landbird migration
- 2020
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Ingår i: Global Ecology and Biogeography. - : WILEY. - 1466-822X .- 1466-8238. ; 29:4, s. 722-735
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim: Knowledge of broad-scale biogeographical patterns of animal migration is important for understanding ecological drivers of migratory behaviours. Here, we present a flyway-scale assessment of the spatial structure and seasonal dynamics of the Afro-Palaearctic bird migration system and explore how phenology of the environment guides long-distance migration.Location: Europe and Africa.Time period: 2009-2017.Major taxa studied: Birds.Methods: We compiled an individual-based dataset comprising 23 passerine and near-passerine species of 55 European breeding populations, in which a total of 564 individuals were tracked during migration between Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. In addition, we used remotely sensed primary productivity data (the normalized difference vegetation index) to estimate the timing of vegetation green-up in spring and senescence in autumn across Europe. First, we described how individual breeding and non-breeding sites and the migratory flyways link geographically. Second, we examined how the timing of migration along the two major Afro-Palaearctic flyways is tuned with vegetation phenology at the breeding sites.Results: We found the longitudes of individual breeding and non-breeding sites to be related in a strongly positive manner, whereas the latitudes of breeding and non-breeding sites were related negatively. In autumn, migration commenced ahead of vegetation senescence, and the timing of migration was 5-7 days earlier along the Western flyway compared with the Eastern flyway. In spring, the time of arrival at breeding sites was c. 1.5 days later for each degree northwards and 6-7 days later along the Eastern compared with the Western flyway, reflecting the later spring green-up at higher latitudes and more eastern longitudes.Main conclusions: Migration of the Afro-Palaearctic landbirds follows a longitudinally parallel leapfrog migration pattern, whereby migrants track vegetation green-up in spring but depart before vegetation senescence in autumn. The degree of continentality along migration routes and at the breeding sites of the birds influences the timing of migration on a broad scale.
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| 9. |
- Caronna, Edoardo, et al.
(författare)
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Redefining migraine prevention: early treatment with anti-CGRP monoclonal antibodies enhances response in the real world
- 2024
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Ingår i: JOURNAL OF NEUROLOGY NEUROSURGERY AND PSYCHIATRY. - 0022-3050 .- 1468-330X.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Anti-CGRP monoclonal antibodies (anti-CGRP MAbs) are approved and available treatments for migraine prevention. Patients do not respond alike and many countries have reimbursement policies, which hinder treatments to those who might respond. This study aimed to investigate clinical factors associated with good and excellent response to anti-CGRP MAbs at 6 months. Methods European multicentre, prospective, real-world study, including high-frequency episodic or chronic migraine (CM) patients treated since March 2018 with anti-CGRP MAbs. We defined good and excellent responses as >= 50% and >= 75% reduction in monthly headache days (MHD) at 6 months, respectively. Generalised mixed-effect regression models (GLMMs) were used to identify variables independently associated with treatment response. Results Of the 5818 included patients, 82.3% were females and the median age was 48.0 (40.0-55.0) years. At baseline, the median of MHD was 20.0 (14.0-28.0) days/months and 72.2% had a diagnosis of CM. At 6 months (n=4963), 56.5% (2804/4963) were good responders and 26.7% (1324/4963) were excellent responders. In the GLMM model, older age (1.08 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.15), p=0.016), the presence of unilateral pain (1.39 (95% CI 1.21 to 1.60), p<0.001), the absence of depression (0.840 (95% CI 0.731 to 0.966), p=0.014), less monthly migraine days (0.923 (95% CI 0.862 to 0.989), p=0.023) and lower Migraine Disability Assessment at baseline (0.874 (95% CI 0.819 to 0.932), p<0.001) were predictors of good response (AUC of 0.648 (95% CI 0.616 to 0.680)). These variables were also significant predictors of excellent response (AUC of 0.691 (95% CI 0.651 to 0.731)). Sex was not significant in the GLMM models. Conclusions This is the largest real-world study of migraine patients treated with anti-CGRP MAbs. It provides evidence that higher migraine frequency and greater disability at baseline reduce the likelihood of responding to anti-CGRP MAbs, informing physicians and policy-makers on the need for an earlier treatment in order to offer the best chance of treatment success.
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| 10. |
- Farinha-Ferreira, Miguel, et al.
(författare)
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Unexpected short- and long-term effects of chronic adolescent HU-210 exposure on emotional behavior
- 2022
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Ingår i: Neuropharmacology. - : Elsevier. - 0028-3908 .- 1873-7064. ; 214
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Chronic adolescent cannabinoid receptor agonist exposure has been shown to lead to persistent increases in depressive-like behaviors. This has been a key obstacle to the development of cannabinoid-based therapeutics. However, most of the published work has been performed with only three compounds, namely & UDelta;9-tetrahydro-cannabinol, CP55,940 and WIN55,212-2. Hypothesizing that different compounds may lead to distinct out-comes, we herein used the highly potent CB1R/CB2R full agonist HU-210, and first aimed at replicating cannabinoid-induced long-lasting effects, by exposing adolescent female Sprague-Dawley rats to increasing doses of HU-210, for 11 days and testing them at adulthood, after a 30-day drug washout. Surprisingly, HU-210 did not significantly impact adult anxious-or depressive-like behaviors. We then tested whether chronic adolescent HU -210 treatment resulted in short-term (24h) alterations in depressive-like behavior. Remarkably, HU-210 treat-ment simultaneously induced marked antidepressant-and prodepressant-like responses, in the modified forced swim (mFST) and sucrose preference tests (SPT), respectively. Hypothesizing that mFST results were a misleading artifact of HU-210-induced behavioral hyperreactivity to stress, we assessed plasmatic noradrenaline and corticosterone levels, under basal conditions and following an acute swim-stress episode. Notably, we found that while HU-210 did not alter basal noradrenaline or corticosterone levels, it greatly augmented the stress-induced increase in both. Our results show that, contrary to previously studied cannabinoid receptor agonists, HU-210 does not induce persisting depressive-like alterations, despite inducing marked short-term increases in stress-induced reactivity. By showing that not all cannabinoid receptor agonists may induce long-term negative effects, these results hold significant relevance for the development of cannabinoid-based therapeutics.
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