| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 4. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 5. |
- Ramos, Vitor, et al.
(författare)
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Cyanobacterial diversity held in microbial biological resource centers as a biotechnological asset : the case study of the newly established LEGE culture collection
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of Applied Phycology. - : SPRINGER. - 0921-8971 .- 1573-5176. ; 30:3, s. 1437-1451
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Cyanobacteria are a well-known source of bioproducts which renders culturable strains a valuable resource for biotechnology purposes. We describe here the establishment of a cyanobacterial culture collection (CC) and present the first version of the strain catalog and its online database . The LEGE CC holds 386 strains, mainly collected in coastal (48%), estuarine (11%), and fresh (34%) water bodies, for the most part from Portugal (84%). By following the most recent taxonomic classification, LEGE CC strains were classified into at least 46 genera from six orders (41% belong to the Synechococcales), several of them are unique among the phylogenetic diversity of the cyanobacteria. For all strains, primary data were obtained and secondary data were surveyed and reviewed, which can be reached through the strain sheets either in the catalog or in the online database. An overview on the notable biodiversity of LEGE CC strains is showcased, including a searchable phylogenetic tree and images for all strains. With this work, 80% of the LEGE CC strains have now their 16S rRNA gene sequences deposited in GenBank. Also, based in primary data, it is demonstrated that several LEGE CC strains are a promising source of extracellular polymeric substances (EPS). Through a review of previously published data, it is exposed that LEGE CC strains have the potential or actual capacity to produce a variety of biotechnologically interesting compounds, including common cyanotoxins or unprecedented bioactive molecules. Phylogenetic diversity of LEGE CC strains does not entirely reflect chemodiversity. Further bioprospecting should, therefore, account for strain specificity of the valuable cyanobacterial holdings of LEGE CC.
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| 6. |
- Carruba, V., et al.
(författare)
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On the identification of the first two young asteroid families in g-type non-linear secular resonances
- 2024
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Ingår i: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 528:1, s. 796-814
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Linear secular resonances happen when there is a commensurability between the precession frequency of the pericenter, g, or longitude of the node, s, of an asteroid and a planet. Non-linear resonances are higher order combinations of these frequencies. Here, we studied the three most diffusive g-type non-linear secular resonances using Artificial Neural Networks. We identified a population of more than 2100 resonant objects in the g − 2g6 + g5 and g − 3g6 + 2g5 resonances. This allows the creation of a Convolutional Neural Network model for the g − 2g6 + g5 resonance, able to predict the status of several thousands of asteroids in seconds. We identified 12 new possible dynamical groups among the resonant population, including the 5507 and 170776 families, which have both estimated ages of less than 7 Myr. These are the two first-ever identified young families in resonant configurations of the investigated resonances, which allows for setting limits on their original ejection velocity field.
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| 7. |
- El-Saadi, Walid, 1984-, et al.
(författare)
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A head-to-head comparison of myocardial strain by fast-strain encoding and feature tracking imaging in acute myocardial infarction
- 2022
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2297-055X. ; 9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundMyocardial infarction (MI) is a major cause of heart failure. Left ventricular adverse remodeling is common post-MI. Several studies have demonstrated a correlation between reduced myocardial strain and the development of adverse remodeling. Cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) with fast-strain encoding (fast-SENC) or feature tracking (FT) enables rapid assessment of myocardial deformation. The aim of this study was to establish a head-to-head comparison of fast-SENC and FT in post-ST-elevated myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients, with clinical 2D speckle tracking echocardiography (2DEcho) as a reference. MethodsThirty patients treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention for STEMI were investigated. All participants underwent CMR examination with late gadolinium enhancement, cine-loop steady-state free precession, and fast-SENC imaging using a 1.5T scanner as well as a 2DEcho. Global longitudinal strain (GLS), segmental longitudinal strain (SLS), global circumferential strain (GCS), and segmental circumferential strain (SCS) were assessed along with the MI scar extent. ResultsThe GCS measurements from fast-SENC and FT were nearly identical: the mean difference was 0.01 (2.5)% (95% CI - 0.92 to 0.95). For GLS, fast-SENC values were higher than FT, with a mean difference of 1.8 (1.4)% (95% CI 1.31-2.35). Tests of significance for GLS did not show any differences between the MR methods and 2DEcho. Average strain in the infarct-related artery (IRA) segments compared to the remote myocardium was significantly lower for the left anterior descending artery and right coronary artery culprits but not for the left circumflex artery culprits. Fast-SENC displayed a higher area under the curve for detecting infarcted segments than FT for both SCS and SLS. ConclusionGLS and GCS did not significantly differ between fast-SENC and FT. Both showed acceptable agreement with 2DEcho for longitudinal strain. Segments perfused by the IRA showed significantly reduced strain values compared to the remote myocardium. Fast-SENC presented a higher sensitivity and specificity for detecting infarcted segments than FT.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Jarquin-Diaz, Victor Hugo, et al.
(författare)
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Aberrant microbiomes are associated with increased antibiotic resistance gene load in hybrid mice
- 2024
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Ingår i: ISME COMMUNICATIONS. - 2730-6151. ; 4:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Antibiotic resistance is a priority public health problem resulting from eco-evolutionary dynamics within microbial communities and their interaction at a mammalian host interface or geographical scale. The links between mammalian host genetics, bacterial gut community, and antimicrobial resistance gene (ARG) content must be better understood in natural populations inhabiting heterogeneous environments. Hybridization, the interbreeding of genetically divergent populations, influences different components of the gut microbial communities. However, its impact on bacterial traits such as antibiotic resistance is unknown. Here, we present that hybridization might shape bacterial communities and ARG occurrence. We used amplicon sequencing to study the gut microbiome and to predict ARG composition in natural populations of house mice (Mus musculus). We compared gastrointestinal bacterial and ARG diversity, composition, and abundance across a gradient of pure and hybrid genotypes in the European House Mouse Hybrid Zone. We observed an increased overall predicted richness of ARG in hybrid mice. We found bacteria-ARG interactions by their co-abundance and detected phenotypes of extreme abundances in hybrid mice at the level of specific bacterial taxa and ARGs, mainly multidrug resistance genes. Our work suggests that mammalian host genetic variation impacts the gut microbiome and chromosomal ARGs. However, it raises further questions on how the mammalian host genetics impact ARGs via microbiome dynamics or environmental covariates.
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| 10. |
- Kalis, Martins, et al.
(författare)
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Beta-cell specific deletion of dicer1 leads to defective insulin secretion and diabetes mellitus
- 2011
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 6:12, s. e29166-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Mature microRNAs (miRNAs), derived through cleavage of pre-miRNAs by the Dicer1 enzyme, regulate protein expression in many cell-types including cells in the pancreatic islets of Langerhans. To investigate the importance of miRNAs in mouse insulin secreting beta-cells, we have generated mice with a beta-cells specific disruption of the Dicer1 gene using the Cre-lox system controlled by the rat insulin promoter (RIP). In contrast to their normoglycaemic control littermates (RIP-Cre(+/-) Dicer1(Delta/wt)), RIP-Cre(+/-) Dicer1(flox/flox) mice (RIP-Cre Dicer1(Delta/Delta)) developed progressive hyperglycaemia and full-blown diabetes mellitus in adulthood that recapitulated the natural history of the spontaneous disease in mice. Reduced insulin gene expression and concomitant reduced insulin secretion preceded the hyperglycaemic state and diabetes development. Immunohistochemical, flow cytometric and ultrastructural analyses revealed altered islet morphology, marked decreased beta-cell mass, reduced numbers of granules within the beta-cells and reduced granule docking in adult RIP-Cre Dicer1(Delta/Delta) mice. beta-cell specific Dicer1 deletion did not appear to disrupt fetal and neonatal beta-cell development as 2-week old RIP-Cre Dicer1(Delta/Delta) mice showed ultrastructurally normal beta-cells and intact insulin secretion. In conclusion, we have demonstrated that a beta-cell specific disruption of the miRNAs network, although allowing for apparently normal beta-cell development, leads to progressive impairment of insulin secretion, glucose homeostasis and diabetes development.
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