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- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 2. |
- Vos, Theo, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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| 6. |
- Izdebski, A., et al.
(författare)
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Palaeoecological data indicates land-use changes across Europe linked to spatial heterogeneity in mortality during the Black Death pandemic
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nature Ecology & Evolution. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-334X. ; :6, s. 297-306
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Black Death (1347–1352 CE) is the most renowned pandemic in human history, believed by many to have killed half of Europe’s population. However, despite advances in ancient DNA research that conclusively identified the pandemic’s causative agent (bacterium Yersinia pestis), our knowledge of the Black Death remains limited, based primarily on qualitative remarks in medieval written sources available for some areas of Western Europe. Here, we remedy this situation by applying a pioneering new approach, ‘big data palaeoecology’, which, starting from palynological data, evaluates the scale of the Black Death’s mortality on a regional scale across Europe. We collected pollen data on landscape change from 261 radiocarbon-dated coring sites (lakes and wetlands) located across 19 modern-day European countries. We used two independent methods of analysis to evaluate whether the changes we see in the landscape at the time of the Black Death agree with the hypothesis that a large portion of the population, upwards of half, died within a few years in the 21 historical regions we studied. While we can confirm that the Black Death had a devastating impact in some regions, we found that it had negligible or no impact in others. These inter-regional differences in the Black Death’s mortality across Europe demonstrate the significance of cultural, ecological, economic, societal and climatic factors that mediated the dissemination and impact of the disease. The complex interplay of these factors, along with the historical ecology of plague, should be a focus of future research on historical pandemics.
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| 7. |
- De, Kishalay, et al.
(författare)
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The Zwicky Transient Facility Census of the Local Universe. I. Systematic Search for Calcium-rich Gap Transients Reveals Three Related Spectroscopic Subclasses
- 2020
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 905:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using the Zwicky Transient Facility alert stream, we are conducting a large spectroscopic campaign to construct a complete, volume-limited sample of transients brighter than 20 mag, and coincident within 100 '' of galaxies in the Census of the Local Universe catalog. We describe the experiment design and spectroscopic completeness from the first 16 months of operations, which have classified 754 supernovae. We present results from a systematic search for calcium-rich gap transients in the sample of 22 low-luminosity (peak absolute magnitude M > -17), hydrogen-poor events found in the experiment. We report the detection of eight new events, and constrain their volumetric rate to greater than or similar to 15% +/- 5% of the SN Ia rate. Combining this sample with 10 previously known events, we find a likely continuum of spectroscopic properties ranging from events with SN Ia-like features (Ca-Ia objects) to those with SN Ib/c-like features (Ca-Ib/c objects) at peak light. Within the Ca-Ib/c events, we find two populations distinguished by their red (g - r approximate to 1.5 mag) or green (g - r approximate to 0.5 mag) colors at the r-band peak, wherein redder events show strong line blanketing features and slower light curves (similar to Ca-Ia objects), weaker He lines, and lower [Ca II]/[O I] in the nebular phase. We find that all together the spectroscopic continuum, volumetric rates, and striking old environments are consistent with the explosive burning of He shells on low-mass white dwarfs. We suggest that Ca-Ia and red Ca-Ib/c objects arise from the double detonation of He shells, while green Ca-Ib/c objects are consistent with low-efficiency burning scenarios like detonations in low-density shells or deflagrations.
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| 8. |
- Kasliwal, Mansi M., et al.
(författare)
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Kilonova Luminosity Function Constraints Based on Zwicky Transient Facility Searches for 13 Neutron Star Merger Triggers during O3
- 2020
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 905:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a systematic search for optical counterparts to 13 gravitational wave (GW) triggers involving at least one neutron star during LIGO/Virgo's third observing run (O3). We searched binary neutron star (BNS) and neutron star black hole (NSBH) merger localizations with the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) and undertook follow-up with the Global Relay of Observatories Watching Transients Happen (GROWTH) collaboration. The GW triggers had a median localization area of 4480 deg(2), a median distance of 267 Mpc, and false-alarm rates ranging from 1.5 to 10(-25) yr(-1). The ZTF coverage in the g and r bands had a median enclosed probability of 39%, median depth of 20.8 mag, and median time lag between merger and the start of observations of 1.5 hr. The O3 follow-up by the GROWTH team comprised 340 UltraViolet/Optical/InfraRed (UVOIR) photometric points, 64 OIR spectra, and three radio images using 17 different telescopes. We find no promising kilonovae (radioactivity-powered counterparts), and we show how to convert the upper limits to constrain the underlying kilonova luminosity function. Initially, we assume that all GW triggers are bona fide astrophysical events regardless of false-alarm rate and that kilonovae accompanying BNS and NSBH mergers are drawn from a common population; later, we relax these assumptions. Assuming that all kilonovae are at least as luminous as the discovery magnitude of GW170817 (-16.1 mag), we calculate that our joint probability of detecting zero kilonovae is only 4.2%. If we assume that all kilonovae are brighter than -16.6 mag (the extrapolated peak magnitude of GW170817) and fade at a rate of 1 mag day(-1) (similar to GW170817), the joint probability of zero detections is 7%. If we separate the NSBH and BNS populations based on the online classifications, the joint probability of zero detections, assuming all kilonovae are brighter than -16.6 mag, is 9.7% for NSBH and 7.9% for BNS mergers. Moreover, no more than <57% (<89%) of putative kilonovae could be brighter than -16.6 mag assuming flat evolution (fading by 1 mag day(-1)) at the 90% confidence level. If we further take into account the online terrestrial probability for each GW trigger, we find that no more than <68% of putative kilonovae could be brighter than -16.6 mag. Comparing to model grids, we find that some kilonovae must have M-ej M, X-lan > 10(-4), or > 30 degrees to be consistent with our limits. We look forward to searches in the fourth GW observing run; even 17 neutron star mergers with only 50% coverage to a depth of -16 mag would constrain the maximum fraction of bright kilonovae to <25%.
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| 9. |
- Kool, Erik C., et al.
(författare)
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SN 2020bqj : A Type Ibn supernova with a long-lasting peak plateau
- 2021
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 652
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. Type Ibn supernovae (SNe Ibn) are a rare class of stripped envelope supernovae interacting with a helium-rich circumstellar medium (CSM). The majority of the SNe Ibn reported in the literature display a surprising homogeneity in their fast-evolving lightcurves and are typically found in actively starforming spiral galaxies.Aims. We present the discovery and the study of SN 2020bqj (ZTF20aalrqbu), a SN Ibn with a long-duration peak plateau lasting 40 days and hosted by a faint low-mass galaxy. We aim to explain its peculiar properties using an extensive photometric and spectroscopic data set.Methods. We compare the photometric and spectral evolution of SN 2020bqj with regular SNe Ibn from the literature, as well as with other outliers in the SN Ibn subclass. We fit the bolometric and multi-band lightcurves with powering mechanism models such as radioactive decay and CSM interaction. We also model the host galaxy of SN 2020bqj.Results. The risetime, peak magnitude and spectral features of SN 2020bqj are consistent with those of most SNe Ibn, but the SN is a clear outlier in the subclass based on its bright, long-lasting peak plateau and the low mass of its faint host galaxy. We show through modeling that the lightcurve of SN 2020bqj can be powered predominantly by shock heating from the interaction of the SN ejecta and a dense CSM, combined with radioactive decay. The peculiar Type Ibn SN 2011hw is a close analog to SN 2020bqj in terms of lightcurve and spectral evolution, suggesting a similar progenitor and CSM scenario. In this scenario a very massive progenitor star in the transitional phase between a luminous blue variable and a compact Wolf-Rayet star undergoes core-collapse, embedded in a dense helium-rich CSM with an elevated opacity compared to normal SNe Ibn, due to the presence of residual hydrogen. This scenario is consistent with the observed properties of SN 2020bqj and the modeling results.Conclusions. SN 2020bqj is a compelling example of a transitional SN Ibn/IIn based on not only its spectral features, but also its lightcurve, host galaxy properties and the inferred progenitor properties. The strong similarity with SN 2011hw suggests this subclass may be the result of a progenitor in a stellar evolution phase that is distinct from those of progenitors of regular SNe Ibn.
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| 10. |
- Miller, A. A., et al.
(författare)
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The Spectacular Ultraviolet Flash from the Peculiar Type Ia Supernova 2019yvq
- 2020
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 898:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Early observations of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) provide essential clues for understanding the progenitor system that gave rise to the terminal thermonuclear explosion. We present exquisite observations of SN 2019yvq, the second observed SN Ia, after iPTF 14atg, to display an early flash of emission in the ultraviolet (UV) and optical. Our analysis finds that SN 2019yvq was unusual, even when ignoring the initial flash, in that it was moderately underluminous for an SN Ia ( mag at peak) yet featured very high absorption velocities ( km s−1 for Si ii λ6355 at peak). We find that many of the observational features of SN 2019yvq, aside from the flash, can be explained if the explosive yield of radioactive 56Ni is relatively low (we measure ) and it and other iron-group elements are concentrated in the innermost layers of the ejecta. To explain both the UV/optical flash and peak properties of SN 2019yvq we consider four different models: interaction between the SN ejecta and a nondegenerate companion, extended clumps of 56Ni in the outer ejecta, a double-detonation explosion, and the violent merger of two white dwarfs. Each of these models has shortcomings when compared to the observations; it is clear additional tuning is required to better match SN 2019yvq. In closing, we predict that the nebular spectra of SN 2019yvq will feature either H or He emission, if the ejecta collided with a companion, strong [Ca ii] emission, if it was a double detonation, or narrow [O i] emission, if it was due to a violent merger.
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