| 1. |
- Amaku, Marcos, et al.
(författare)
-
Modelling the test, trace and quarantine strategy to control the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Infectious Disease Modelling. - : KeAi Communications. - 2468-0427. ; 6, s. 46-55
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Testing for detecting the infection by SARS-CoV-2 is the bridge between the lockdown and the opening of society. In this paper we modelled and simulated a test-trace-and-quarantine strategy to control the COVID-19 outbreak in the State of Sao Paulo, Brasil. The State of Sao Paulo failed to adopt an effective social distancing strategy, reaching at most 59% in late March and started to relax the measures in late June, dropping to 41% in 08 August. Therefore, Sao Paulo relies heavily on a massive testing strategy in the attempt to control the epidemic.Two alternative strategies combined with economic evaluations were simulated. One strategy included indiscriminately testing the entire population of the State, reaching more than 40 million people at a maximum cost of 2.25 billion USD, that would reduce the total number of cases by the end of 2020 by 90%. The second strategy investigated testing only symptomatic cases and their immediate contacts - this strategy reached a maximum cost of 150 million USD but also reduced the number of cases by 90%. The conclusion is that if the State of Sao Paulo had decided to adopt the simulated strategy on April the 1st, it would have been possible to reduce the total number of cases by 90% at a cost of 2.25 billion US dollars for the indiscriminate strategy but at a much smaller cost of 125 million US dollars for the selective testing of symptomatic cases and their contacts.
|
|
| 2. |
- Bancroft, Dani, et al.
(författare)
-
Vector control strategies in Brazil : a qualitative investigation into community knowledge, attitudes and perceptions following the 2015-2016 Zika virus epidemic
- 2022
-
Ingår i: BMJ Open. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2044-6055. ; 12:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: The World Health Organization declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern following the rapid emergence of neonatal microcephaly in Brazil during the 2015-2016 Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic. In response, a national campaign sought to control Aedes mosquito populations and reduce ZIKV transmission. Achieving adherence to vector control or mosquito-bite reduction behaviours, including the use of topical mosquito repellents, is challenging. Coproduction of research at the community level is needed to understand and mitigate social determinants of lower engagement with Aedes preventive measures, particularly within disempowered groups.DESIGN: In 2017, the Zika Preparedness Latin America Network (ZikaPLAN) conducted a qualitative study to understand individual and community level experiences of ZIKV and other mosquito-borne disease outbreaks. Presented here is a thematic analysis of 33 transcripts from community focus groups and semistructured interviews, applying the Health Belief Model (HBM) to elaborate knowledge, attitudes and perceptions of ZIKV and vector control strategies.PARTICIPANTS: 120 purposively sampled adults of approximate reproductive age (18-45); 103 women participated in focus groups and 17 men in semistructured interviews.SETTING: Two sociopolitically and epidemiologically distinct cities in Brazil: Jundiaí (57 km north of São Paolo) and Salvador (Bahia state capital).RESULTS: Four key and 12 major themes emerged from the analysis: (1) knowledge and cues to action; (2) attitudes and normative beliefs (perceived threat, barriers, benefits and self-efficacy); (3) behaviour change (household prevention and community participation); and (4) community preferences for novel repellent tools, vector control strategies and ZIKV messaging.CONCLUSIONS: Common barriers to repellent adherence were accessibility, appearance and effectiveness. A strong case is made for the transferability of the HBM to inform epidemic preparedness for mosquito-borne disease outbreaks at the community level. Nationally, a health campaign targeting men is recommended, in addition to local mobilisation of funding to strengthen surveillance, risk communication and community engagement.
|
|
| 3. |
- Clancy, India L., et al.
(författare)
-
Public health messages on arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti in Brazil
- 2021
-
Ingår i: BMC Public Health. - : Springer Nature. - 1471-2458. ; 21:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The outbreak of Zika virus in Brazil in 2015 followed the arrival of chikungunya in 2014 and a long history of dengue circulation. Vital to the response to these outbreaks of mosquito-borne pathogens has been the dissemination of public health messages, including those promoted through risk communication posters. This study explores the content of a sample of posters circulated in Brazil towards the end of the Zika epidemic in 2017 and analyses their potential effectiveness in inducing behaviour change.Methods: A content analysis was performed on 37 posters produced in Brazil to address outbreaks of mosquito-borne pathogens. The six variables of the Health Belief Model were used to assess the potential effectiveness of the posters to induce behaviour change.Results: Three overarching key messages emerged from the posters. These included (i) the arboviruses and their outcomes, (ii) a battle against the mosquito, and (iii) a responsibility to protect and prevent. Among the six variables utilised through the Health Belief Model, cues to action were most commonly featured, whilst the perceived benefits of engaging in behaviours to prevent arbovirus transmission were the least commonly featured.Conclusions: The posters largely focused on mosquito-borne transmission and the need to eliminate breeding sites, and neglected the risk of the sexual and congenital transmission of Zika and the importance of alternative preventive actions. This, we argue, may have limited the potential effectiveness of these posters to induce behaviour change.
|
|
| 4. |
- Kattge, Jens, et al.
(författare)
-
TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 26:1, s. 119-188
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives.
|
|
| 5. |
- Liu-Helmersson, Jing, 1960-, et al.
(författare)
-
Climate change and Aedes vectors : 21st century projections for dengue transmission in Europe
- 2016
-
Ingår i: EBioMedicine. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3964. ; 7, s. 267-277
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Warming temperatures may increase the geographic spread of vector-borne diseases into temperate areas. Although a tropical mosquito-borne viral disease, a dengue outbreak occurred in Madeira, Portugal, in 2012; the first in Europe since 1920s. This outbreak emphasizes the potential for dengue re-emergence in Europe given changing climates. We present estimates of dengue epidemic potential using vectorial capacity (VC) based on historic and projected temperature (1901–2099). VC indicates the vectors' ability to spread disease among humans. We calculated temperature-dependent VC for Europe, highlighting 10 European cities and three non-European reference cities. Compared with the tropics, Europe shows pronounced seasonality and geographical heterogeneity. Although low, VC during summer is currently sufficient for dengue outbreaks in Southern Europe to commence–if sufficient vector populations (either Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus) were active and virus were introduced. Under various climate change scenarios, the seasonal peak and time window for dengue epidemic potential increases during the 21st century. Our study maps dengue epidemic potential in Europe and identifies seasonal time windows when major cities are most conducive for dengue transmission from 1901 to 2099. Our findings illustrate, that besides vector control, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions crucially reduces the future epidemic potential of dengue in Europe.
|
|
| 6. |
- Liu-Helmersson, Jing, 1960-
(författare)
-
Climate Change, Dengue and Aedes Mosquitoes : Past Trends and Future Scenarios
- 2018
-
Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Background Climate change, global travel and trade have facilitated the spread of Aedes mosquitoes and have consequently enabled the diseases they transmit (dengue fever, Chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever) to emerge and re-emerge in uninfected areas. Large dengue outbreaks occurred in Athens in 1927 and in Portuguese island, Madeira in 2012, but there are almost no recent reports of Aedes aegypti, the principal vector, in Europe. A dengue outbreak needs four conditions: sufficient susceptible humans, abundant Aedes vector, dengue virus introduction, and conducive climate. Can Aedes aegypti establish themselves again in Europe in the near future if they are introduced? How do the current and future climate affect dengue transmission globally, and regionally as in Europe? This thesis tries to answer these questions.Methods Two process-based mathematical models were developed in this thesis. Model 1 describes a vector’s ability to transmit dengue – vectorial capacity – based on temperature and diurnal temperature range (DTR). Model 2 describes vector population dynamics based on the lifecycle of Aedes aegypti. From this model, vector abundance was estimated using both climate as a single driver, and climate together with human population and GDP as multiple drivers; vector population growth rate was derived as a threshold condition to estimate the vector’s invasion to a new place.Results Using vectorial capacity, we estimate dengue epidemic potential globally for Aedes aegypti and in Europe for Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We show that mean temperature and DTR are both important in modelling dengue transmission, especially in a temperate climate zone like Europe. Currently, South Europe is over the threshold for dengue epidemics if sufficient dengue vectors are present. Aedes aegypti is on the borderline of invasion into the southern tip of Europe. However, by end of this century, the invasion of Aedes aegypti may reach as far north as the middle of Europe under the business-as-usual climate scenario. Or it may be restricted to the south Europe from the middle of the century if the low carbon emission – Paris Agreement – is implemented to limit global warming to below 2°C.Conclusion Climate change will increase the area and time window for Aedes aegypti’s invasion and consequently the dengue epidemic potential globally, and in Europe in particular. Successfully achieving the Paris Agreement would considerably change the future risk scenario of a highly competent vector – Aedes aegypti’s – invasion into Europe. Therefore, the risk of transmission of dengue and other infectious diseases to the mainland of Europe depends largely on human efforts to mitigate climate change.
|
|
| 7. |
- Lopez, Luis Fernandez, et al.
(författare)
-
Modeling Importations and Exportations of Infectious Diseases via Travelers
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Bulletin of Mathematical Biology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0092-8240 .- 1522-9602. ; 78:2, s. 185-209
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper is an attempt to estimate the risk of infection importation and exportation by travelers. Two countries are considered: one disease-free country and one visited or source country with a running endemic or epidemic infectious disease. Two models are considered. In the first model (disease importation), susceptible individuals travel from their disease-free home country to the endemic country and come back after some weeks. The risk of infection spreading in their home country is then estimated supposing the visitors are submitted to the same force of infection as the local population but do not contribute to it. In the second model (disease exportation), it is calculated the probability that an individual from the endemic (or epidemic) country travels to a disease-free country in the condition of latent infected and eventually introduces the infection there. The input of both models is the force of infection at the visited/source country, assumed known. The models are deterministic, but a preliminary stochastic formulation is presented as an appendix. The models are exemplified with two distinct real situations: the risk of dengue importation from Thailand to Europe and the risk of Ebola exportation from Liberia to the USA.
|
|
| 8. |
|
|
| 9. |
- Massad, Eduardo, et al.
(författare)
-
Estimated Zika virus importations to Europe by travellers from Brazil
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Global Health Action. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1654-9716 .- 1654-9880. ; 9, s. 1-7
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Given the interconnectivity of Brazil with the rest of the world, Zika virus (ZIKV) infections have the potential to spread rapidly around the world via viremic travellers. The extent of spread depends on the travel volume and the endemicity in the exporting country. In the absence of reliable surveillance data, we did mathematical modelling to estimate the number of importations of ZIKV from Brazil into Europe.DESIGN: We applied a previously developed mathematical model on importations of dengue to estimate the number of ZIKV importations into Europe, based on the travel volume, the probability of being infected at the time of travel, the population size of Brazil, and the estimated incidence of ZIKV infections.RESULTS: Our model estimated between 508 and 1,778 imported infections into Europe in 2016, of which we would expect between 116 and 355 symptomatic Zika infections; with the highest number of importations being into France, Portugal and Italy.CONCLUSIONS: Our model identified high-risk countries in Europe. Such data can assist policymakers and public health professionals in estimating the extent of importations in order to prepare for the scale up of laboratory diagnostic assays and estimate the occurrence of Guillain-Barré Syndrome, potential sexual transmission, and infants with congenital ZIKV syndrome.
|
|
| 10. |
- Massad, Eduardo, et al.
(författare)
-
Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 8:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Given the speed of air travel, diseases even with a short viremia such as dengue can be easily exported to dengue naïve areas within 24 hours. We set out to estimate the risk of dengue virus introductions via travelers into Europe and number of secondary autochthonous cases as a result of the introduction. We applied mathematical modeling to estimate the number of dengue-viremic air passengers from 16 dengue-endemic countries to 27 European countries, taking into account the incidence of dengue in the exporting countries, travel volume and the probability of being viremic at the time of travel. Our models estimate a range from zero to 167 air passengers who are dengue-viremic at the time of travel from dengue endemic countries to each of the 27 receiving countries in one year. Germany receives the highest number of imported dengue-viremic air passengers followed by France and the United Kingdom. Our findings estimate 10 autochthonous secondary asymptomatic and symptomatic dengue infections, caused by the expected 124 infected travelers who arrived in Italy in 2012. The risk of onward transmission in Europe is reassuringly low, except where Aedes aegypti is present.
|
|
