| 1. |
- Fennell, P., et al.
(författare)
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Challenges and Lessons Learned in Applying Sensitivity Analysis to Building Stock Energy Models
- 2022
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Ingår i: Building Simulation Conference Proceedings. - : KU Leuven. - 2522-2708. ; , s. 2203-2210
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Uncertainty Analysis (UA) and Sensitivity Analysis (SA) offer essential tools to determine the limits of inference of a model and explore the factors which have the most effect on the model outputs. However, despite a well-established body of work applying UA and SA to models of individual buildings, a review of the literature relating to energy models for larger groups of buildings undertaken by Fennell et al. (2019) highlighted very limited application at larger scales. This contribution describes the efforts undertaken by a group of research teams in the context of IEA-EBC Annex 70 working with a diverse set of Building Stock Models (BSMs) to apply global sensitivity analysis methods and compare their results. Since BSMs are a class of model defined by their output and coverage rather than their structure and inputs, they represent a diverse set of modelling approaches. Key challenges for the application of SA are identified and explored, including the influence of model form, input data types and model outputs. This study combines results from 7 different modelling teams, each using different models across a range of urban areas to explore these challenges and begin the process of developing standardised workflows for SA of BSMs.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Kjärstad, Jan, 1956, et al.
(författare)
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Sustainable use of energy carriers in the Kattegat/Skagerrak-region - a regional case study
- 2013
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Ingår i: The 8th Conference on Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems, SDEWES Conference Dubrovnik, Croatia, September 22-27, 2013.
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This paper reports on a recently initiated interregional project on sustainable use of energy carriers in the Kattegat/Skagerrak-region (KASK) in Norway and Sweden. The work analyses and models large-scale integration of renewable power, the potential of process integration and energy efficiency improvements in key industries in the region and identifies cost efficient solutions for an energy efficient building stock. Energy and emission statistics along with energy and climate plans are used to investigate how well the current “path” with regard to energy use and GHG emissions fits within the corresponding plans for the region. The statistics is also used to define a Reference Energy System (RES) for the region which gives a structured mapping of the energy system of the region, comprising supply, conversion and end-use of the different energy carriers/sources in the region. Based on the analysis the aim of the project is to propose one or more pathways in the short, medium and long term towards a sustainable energy system in the region. The initial work shows that final energy use for parts of the region has actually increased by 25% since 1990 while GHG emissions have declined only marginally, by 3%. Furthermore, although most municipalities in the region have targets or at least visions on significant reductions both with regard to energy use and GHG emissions they lack a clear description (pathway) of how to reach these targets (visions). This clearly indicates that thorough analysis of the energy system in the region could provide valuable insights to decision makers and stakeholders on requirements and challenges for transforming the energy system to reach the visions.
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| 4. |
- Kjärstad, Jan, 1956, et al.
(författare)
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Transforming the energy system in Västra Götaland and Halland – linking short term actions to long term goals
- 2015
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This study analyzes pathways to meet EU, national and regional targets for CO2 emissions, energy efficiency and penetration of renewable energy in the Swedish part of the Kattegat-Skagerrak region (KASK-SE), i.e. more specifically in the counties of Västra Götaland (VGR) and Halland. Special focus is placed on four areas: The potential for energy savings in the building sector, energy savings and fuel shifting in the energy intensive industry, large-scale deployment of renewables in the electricity generation sector and greenhouse gas emission reductions in the transport sector. The energy savings are through the implementation of different energy efficiency measures.
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| 5. |
- Langevin, Jared, et al.
(författare)
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Developing a common approach for classifying building stock energy models
- 2020
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Ingår i: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 1879-0690 .- 1364-0321. ; 133
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Buildings contribute 40% of global greenhouse gas emissions; therefore, strategies that can substantially reduce emissions from the building stock are key components of broader efforts to mitigate climate change and achieve sustainable development goals. Models that represent the energy use of the building stock at scale under various scenarios of technology deployment have become essential tools for the development and assessment of such strategies. Within the past decade, the capabilities of building stock energy models have improved considerably, while model transferability and sharing has increased. Given these advancements, a new scheme for classifying building stock energy models is needed to facilitate communication of modeling approaches and the handling of important model dimensions. In this article, we present a new building stock energy model classification framework that leverages international modeling expertise from the participants of the International Energy Agency's Annex 70 on Building Energy Epidemiology. Drawing from existing classification studies, we propose a multi-layer quadrant scheme that classifies modeling techniques by their design (top-down or bottom-up) and degree of transparency (black-box or white-box); hybrid techniques are also addressed. The quadrant scheme is unique from previous classification approaches in its non-hierarchical organization, coverage of and ability to incorporate emerging modeling techniques, and treatment of additional modeling dimensions. The new classification framework will be complemented by a reporting protocol and online registry of existing models as part of ongoing work in Annex 70 to increase the interpretability and utility of building stock energy models for energy policy making.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Mata Las Heras, Erika, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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A modelling strategy for energy, carbon, and cost assessments of building stocks.
- 2013
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Ingår i: Energy and Buildings. - : Elsevier BV. - 0378-7788. ; 56, s. 100-108
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents the Energy, Carbon and Cost Assessment for Building Stocks (ECCABS) model, whichis a bottom-up model to assess energy-saving measures (ESM) and carbon dioxide (CO2) mitigationstrategies in building stocks. The model is based on a one-zone hourly heat balance that calculates thenet energy demand for a number of buildings representative of the building stock and an additional codefor the input and output data. The model generates results in terms of delivered energy, associated CO2emissions, and the costs of implementing different ESM. The results are extended to the entire buildingstock by means of weighting factors. Empirical and comparative validations of the heat-balance modellingof single buildings are presented. The building stock modelling is validated against the current Swedishresidential stock, for which the results of the modelling are in agreement with the statistical data. Usingthe model to assess a number of ESM reveals that the energy usage of the Swedish residential sector canbe reduced by 55% and the associated CO2 emissions can be reduced by 63%, with most of the ESM beingcost–effective. The applicability of the model to countries other than Sweden is under investigation.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Mata Las Heras, Erika, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Building-Stock Aggregation through Archetype Buildings: France, Germany, Spain and the UK
- 2014
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Ingår i: Building and Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0360-1323. ; 81, s. 270-282
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Knowledge regarding the characteristics of national building stocks is fundamental to understanding how the energy performance of the building stock can be improved. To facilitate large diversity and a number of buildings for such analyses, this paper presents a methodology by which national building stocks may be aggregated through archetype buildings. The methodology has been implemented and verified in four EU countries in regions with different climates, namely France, Germany, Spain and the UK. These countries account for about half of the final energy consumption of the EU-28 buildings. The analysis includes the residential and non-residential sectors (residential sector only for Germany). The number of archetypes per country has been defined according to different categories of building type, construction year, climate region and the main fuel source for heating purposes. The accuracy of the description is validated by simulating energy demand using the ECCABS Building Stock Model, and comparing the final energy demand modelled with corresponding statistical data. The total final energy demand calculated for these countries differs from available statistics by between -6% and +2 %, which is considered satisfactory. The proposed description of the building stock is being used as a basis for analyzing the potential for and cost of energy conservation measures.
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