| 1. |
- Adolphi, Florian, et al.
(författare)
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Persistent link between solar activity and Greenland climate during the Last Glacial Maximum
- 2014
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Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - 1752-0908 .- 1752-0894. ; 7:9, s. 662-666
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Changes in solar activity have previously been proposed to cause decadal- to millennial-scale fluctuations in both the modern and Holocene climates(1). Direct observational records of solar activity, such as sunspot numbers, exist for only the past few hundred years, so solar variability for earlier periods is typically reconstructed from measurements of cosmogenic radionuclides such as Be-10 and C-14 from ice cores and tree rings(2,3). Here we present a high-resolution Be-10 record from the ice core collected from central Greenland by the Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP). The record spans from 22,500 to 10,000 years ago, and is based on new and compiled data(4-6). Using C-14 records(7,8) to control for climate-related influences on Be-10 deposition, we reconstruct centennial changes in solar activity. We find that during the Last Glacial Maximum, solar minima correlate with more negative delta O-18 values of ice and are accompanied by increased snow accumulation and sea-salt input over central Greenland. We suggest that solar minima could have induced changes in the stratosphere that favour the development of high-pressure blocking systems located to the south of Greenland, as has been found in observations and model simulations for recent climate(9,10). We conclude that the mechanism behind solar forcing of regional climate change may have been similar under both modern and Last Glacial Maximum climate conditions.
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| 2. |
- Akperov, Mirseid, et al.
(författare)
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Cyclone Activity in the Arctic From an Ensemble of Regional Climate Models (Arctic CORDEX)
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. - 2169-8996 .- 2169-897X. ; 123:5, s. 2537-2554
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The ability of state-of-the-art regional climate models to simulate cyclone activity in the Arctic is assessed based on an ensemble of 13 simulations from 11 models from the Arctic-CORDEX initiative. Some models employ large-scale spectral nudging techniques. Cyclone characteristics simulated by the ensemble are compared with the results forced by four reanalyses (ERA-Interim, National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2, and Japan Meteorological Agency-Japanese 55-year reanalysis) in winter and summer for 1981-2010 period. In addition, we compare cyclone statistics between ERA-Interim and the Arctic System Reanalysis reanalyses for 2000-2010. Biases in cyclone frequency, intensity, and size over the Arctic are also quantified. Variations in cyclone frequency across the models are partly attributed to the differences in cyclone frequency over land. The variations across the models are largest for small and shallow cyclones for both seasons. A connection between biases in the zonal wind at 200 hPa and cyclone characteristics is found for both seasons. Most models underestimate zonal wind speed in both seasons, which likely leads to underestimation of cyclone mean depth and deep cyclone frequency in the Arctic. In general, the regional climate models are able to represent the spatial distribution of cyclone characteristics in the Arctic but models that employ large-scale spectral nudging show a better agreement with ERA-Interim reanalysis than the rest of the models. Trends also exhibit the benefits of nudging. Models with spectral nudging are able to reproduce the cyclone trends, whereas most of the nonnudged models fail to do so. However, the cyclone characteristics and trends are sensitive to the choice of nudged variables.
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| 3. |
- Akperov, Mirseid, et al.
(författare)
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Future projections of cyclone activity in the Arctic for the 21st century from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX)
- 2019
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Ingår i: Global and Planetary Change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0921-8181 .- 1872-6364. ; 182
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Changes in the characteristics of cyclone activity (frequency, depth and size) in the Arctic are analyzed based on simulations with state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCMs) from the Arctic-CORDEX initiative and global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP5 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Most of RCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency in winter (DJF) and a decrease in summer (JJA) to the end of the 21st century. However, in one half of the RCMs, cyclones become weaker and substantially smaller in winter and deeper and larger in summer. RCMs as well as GCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency over the Baffin Bay, Barents Sea, north of Greenland, Canadian Archipelago, and a decrease over the Nordic Seas, Kara and Beaufort Seas and over the sub-arctic continental regions in winter. In summer, the models simulate an increase of cyclone frequency over the Central Arctic and Greenland Sea and a decrease over the Norwegian and Kara Seas by the end of the 21st century. The decrease is also found over the high-latitude continental areas, in particular, over east Siberia and Alaska. The sensitivity of the RCMs' projections to the boundary conditions and model physics is estimated. In general, different lateral boundary conditions from the GCMs have larger effects on the simulated RCM projections than the differences in RCMs' setup and/or physics.
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| 4. |
- Akperov, Mirseid, et al.
(författare)
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Future projections of wind energy potentials in the arctic for the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX)
- 2023
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Ingår i: Anthropocene. - 2213-3054. ; 44
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Arctic has warmed more than twice the rate of the entire globe. To quantify possible climate change effects, we calculate wind energy potentials from a multi-model ensemble of Arctic-CORDEX. For this, we analyze future changes of wind power density (WPD) using an eleven-member multi-model ensemble. Impacts are estimated for two periods (2020-2049 and 2070-2099) of the 21st century under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5). The multi-model mean reveals an increase of seasonal WPD over the Arctic in the future decades. WPD variability across a range of temporal scales is projected to increase over the Arctic. The signal amplifies by the end of 21st century. Future changes in the frequency of wind speeds at 100 m not useable for wind energy production (wind speeds below 4 m/s or above 25 m/s) has been analyzed. The RCM ensemble simulates a more frequent occurrence of 100 m non-usable wind speeds for the wind-turbines over Scandinavia and selected land areas in Alaska, northern Russia and Canada. In contrast, non-usable wind speeds decrease over large parts of Eastern Siberia and in northern Alaska. Thus, our results indicate increased potential of the Arctic for the development and production of wind energy. Bias corrected and not corrected near-surface wind speed and WPD changes have been compared with each other. It has been found that both show the same sign of future change, but differ in magnitude of these changes. The role of sea-ice retreat and vegetation expansion in the Arctic in future on near-surface wind speed variability has been also assessed. Surface roughness through sea-ice and vegetation changes may significantly impact on WPD variability in the Arctic.
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| 5. |
- Lubis, Sandro W., et al.
(författare)
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How does downward planetary wave coupling affect polar stratospheric ozone in the Arctic winter stratosphere?
- 2017
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 17:3, s. 2437-2458
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- It is well established that variable wintertime planetary wave forcing in the stratosphere controls the variability of Arctic stratospheric ozone through changes in the strength of the polar vortex and the residual circulation. While previous studies focused on the variations in upward wave flux entering the lower stratosphere, here the impact of downward planetary wave reflection on ozone is investigated for the first time. Utilizing the MERRA2 reanalysis and a fully coupled chemistry-climate simulation with the Community Earth System Model (CESM1(WACCM)) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), we find two downward wave reflection effects on ozone: (1) the direct effect in which the residual circulation is weakened during winter, reducing the typical increase of ozone due to upward planetary wave events and (2) the indirect effect in which the modification of polar temperature during winter affects the amount of ozone destruction in spring. Winter seasons dominated by downward wave reflection events (i.e., reflective winters) are characterized by lower Arctic ozone concentration, while seasons dominated by increased upward wave events (i.e., absorptive winters) are characterized by relatively higher ozone concentration. This behavior is consistent with the cumulative effects of downward and upward planetary wave events on polar stratospheric ozone via the residual circulation and the polar temperature in winter. The results establish a new perspective on dynamical processes controlling stratospheric ozone variability in the Arctic by highlighting the key role of wave reflection.
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| 6. |
- Lubis, Sandro W., et al.
(författare)
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Influence of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Sea Surface Temperature Variability on Downward Wave Coupling in the Northern Hemisphere
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. - 0022-4928 .- 1520-0469. ; 73:5, s. 1943-1965
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Downward wave coupling occurs when an upward-propagating planetary wave from the troposphere decelerates the flow in the upper stratosphere and forms a downward reflecting surface that redirects waves back to the troposphere. To test this mechanism and potential factors influencing the downward wave coupling, three 145-yr sensitivity simulations with NCAR's Community Earth System Model [CESM1(WACCM)], a state-of-the-art high-top chemistry-climate model, are analyzed. The results show that the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and SST variability significantly impact downward wave coupling. Without the QBO, the occurrence of downward wave coupling is significantly suppressed. In contrast, stronger and more persistent downward wave coupling occurs when SST variability is excluded. The above influence on the occurrence of downward wave coupling is mostly due to a direct influence of the QBO and SST variability on stratospheric planetary wave source and propagation. The strengths of the tropospheric circulation and surface responses to a given downward wave coupling event, however, behave differently. The surface anomaly is significantly weaker (stronger) in the experiment with fixed SSTs (without QBO), even though the statistical signal of downward wave coupling is strongest (weakest) in this experiment. This apparent mismatch is explained by the differences in the strength of the synoptic-scale eddy-mean flow feedback and the possible contribution of SST anomalies in the North Atlantic during the downward wave coupling event. The weaker synoptic-scale eddy-mean flow feedback and the absence of the positive NAO-related SST-tripole pattern in the fixed SST experiment are consistent with a weaker tropospheric response to downward wave coupling. The results highlight the importance of synoptic-scale eddies in setting the tropospheric response to downward wave coupling.
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| 7. |
- Martin-Puertas, Celia, et al.
(författare)
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Regional atmospheric circulation shifts induced by a grand solar minimum
- 2012
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Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - 1752-0908 .- 1752-0894. ; 5:6, s. 397-401
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Large changes in solar ultraviolet radiation can indirectly affect climate(1) by inducing atmospheric changes. Specifically, it has been suggested that centennial-scale climate variability during the Holocene epoch was controlled by the Sun(2,3). However, the amplitude of solar forcing is small when compared with the climatic effects and, without reliable data sets, it is unclear which feedback mechanisms could have amplified the forcing. Here we analyse annually laminated sediments of Lake Meerfelder Maar, Germany, to derive variations in wind strength and the rate of Be-10 accumulation, a proxy for solar activity, from 3,300 to 2,000 years before present. We find a sharp increase in windiness and cosmogenic Be-10 deposition 2,759 +/- 39 varve years before present and a reduction in both entities 199 +/- 9 annual layers later. We infer that the atmospheric circulation reacted abruptly and in phase with the solar minimum. A shift in atmospheric circulation in response to changes in solar activity is broadly consistent with atmospheric circulation patterns in long-term climate model simulations, and in reanalysis data that assimilate observations from recent solar minima into a climate model. We conclude that changes in atmospheric circulation amplified the solar signal and caused abrupt climate change about 2,800 years ago, coincident with a grand solar minimum.
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