| 1. |
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| 2. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)
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| 3. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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State of the Climate in 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 98:8, s. S1-S280
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.
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| 4. |
- Blunden, Jessica, et al.
(författare)
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State of the Climate in 2012
- 2013
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 94:8, s. S1-S258
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional climate conditions around the globe. A weak La Ni a dissipated to ENSOneutral conditions by spring, and while El Nino appeared to be emerging during summer, this phase never fully developed as sea surface temperatures in the eastern conditions. Nevertheless, other large-scale climate patterns and extreme weather events impacted various regions during the year. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation from mid-January to early February contributed to frigid conditions in parts of northern Africa, eastern Europe, and western Asia. A lack of rain during the 2012 wet season led to the worst drought in at least the past three decades for northeastern Brazil. Central North America also experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. The Caribbean observed a very wet dry season and it was the Sahel's wettest rainy season in 50 years. Overall, the 2012 average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces ranked among the 10 warmest years on record. The global land surface temperature alone was also among the 10 warmest on record. In the upper atmosphere, the average stratospheric temperature was record or near-record cold, depending on the dataset. After a 30-year warming trend from 1970 to 1999 for global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000-12 had little further trend. This may be linked to the prevalence of La Ni a-like conditions during the 21st century. Heat content in the upper 700 m of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Net increases from 2011 to 2012 were observed at 700-m to 2000-m depth and even in the abyssal ocean below. Following sharp decreases in to the effects of La Ni a, sea levels rebounded to reach records highs in 2012. The increased hydrological cycle seen in recent years continued, with more evaporation in drier locations and more precipitation in rainy areas. In a pattern that has held since 2004, salty areas of the ocean surfaces and subsurfaces were anomalously salty on average, while fresher areas were anomalously fresh. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity. In this basin, Sandy brought devastation to Cuba and parts of the eastern North American seaboard. All other basins experienced either near-or below-normal tropical cyclone activity. Only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity-all in Bopha became the only storm in the historical record to produce winds greater than 130 kt south of 7 N. It was also the costliest storm to affect the Philippines and killed more than 1000 residents. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June both reached new record lows. June snow cover extent is now declining at a faster rate (-17.6% per decade) than September sea ice extent (-13.0% per decade). Permafrost temperatures reached record high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred on 11-12 July on the Greenland ice sheet; 97% of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt for this time of year. The climate in Antarctica was relatively stable overall. The largest maximum sea ice extent since records begain in 1978 was observed in September 2012. In the stratosphere, warm air led to the second smallest ozone hole in the past two decades. Even so, the springtime ozone layer above Antarctica likely will not return to its early 1980s state until about 2060. Following a slight decline associated with the global 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record 9.5 +/- 0.5 Pg C in 2011 and a new record of 9.7 +/- 0.5 Pg C is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, to 392.6 ppm. In spring 2012, 2 concentration exceeded 400 ppm at 7 of the 13 Arctic observation sites. Globally, other greenhouse gases including methane and nitrous oxide also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 32% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Concentrations of most ozone depleting substances continued to fall.
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| 5. |
- Adam, R., et al.
(författare)
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Planck intermediate results XLVII. Planck constraints on reionization history
- 2016
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 596
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We investigate constraints on cosmic reionization extracted from the Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) data. We combine the Planck CMB anisotropy data in temperature with the low-multipole polarization data to fit Lambda CDM models with various parameterizations of the reionization history. We obtain a Thomson optical depth tau = 0.058 +/- 0.012 for the commonly adopted instantaneous reionization model. This confirms, with data solely from CMB anisotropies, the low value suggested by combining Planck 2015 results with other data sets, and also reduces the uncertainties. We reconstruct the history of the ionization fraction using either a symmetric or an asymmetric model for the transition between the neutral and ionized phases. To determine better constraints on the duration of the reionization process, we also make use of measurements of the amplitude of the kinetic Sunyaev-Zeldovich (kSZ) effect using additional information from the high-resolution Atacama Cosmology Telescope and South Pole Telescope experiments. The average redshift at which reionization occurs is found to lie between z = 7.8 and 8.8, depending on the model of reionization adopted. Using kSZ constraints and a redshift-symmetric reionization model, we find an upper limit to the width of the reionization period of Delta z < 2.8. In all cases, we find that the Universe is ionized at less than the 10% level at redshifts above z similar or equal to 10. This suggests that an early onset of reionization is strongly disfavoured by the Planck data. We show that this result also reduces the tension between CMB-based analyses and constraints from other astrophysical sources.
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| 6. |
- Aghanim, N., et al.
(författare)
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Planck intermediate results L. Evidence of spatial variation of the polarized thermal dust spectral energy distribution and implications for CMB B-mode analysis
- 2017
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 599
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The characterization of the Galactic foregrounds has been shown to be the main obstacle in the challenging quest to detect primordial B-modes in the polarized microwave sky. We make use of the Planck-HFI 2015 data release at high frequencies to place new constraints on the properties of the polarized thermal dust emission at high Galactic latitudes. Here, we specifically study the spatial variability of the dust polarized spectral energy distribution (SED), and its potential impact on the determination of the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r. We use the correlation ratio of the CBB `angular power spectra between the 217 and 353 GHz channels as a tracer of these potential variations, computed on different high Galactic latitude regions, ranging from 80% to 20% of the sky. The new insight from Planck data is a departure of the correlation ratio from unity that cannot be attributed to a spurious decorrelation due to the cosmic microwave background, instrumental noise, or instrumental systematics. The effect is marginally detected on each region, but the statistical combination of all the regions gives more than 99% confidence for this variation in polarized dust properties. In addition, we show that the decorrelation increases when there is a decrease in the mean column density of the region of the sky being considered, and we propose a simple power-law empirical model for this dependence, which matches what is seen in the Planck data. We explore the effect that this measured decorrelation has on simulations of the BICEP2-Keck Array/Planck analysis and show that the 2015 constraints from these data still allow a decorrelation between the dust at 150 and 353 GHz that is compatible with our measured value. Finally, using simplified models, we show that either spatial variation of the dust SED or of the dust polarization angle are able to produce decorrelations between 217 and 353 GHz data similar to the values we observe in the data.
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| 7. |
- Aghanim, N., et al.
(författare)
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Planck intermediate results XLIV. Structure of the Galactic magnetic field from dust polarization maps of the southern Galactic cap
- 2016
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 596
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using data from the Planck satellite, we study the statistical properties of interstellar dust polarization at high Galactic latitudes around the south pole (b < -60 degrees). Our aim is to advance the understanding of the magnetized interstellar medium (ISM), and to provide a modelling framework of the polarized dust foreground for use in cosmic microwave background (CMB) component-separation procedures. We examine the Stokes I, Q, and U maps at 353 GHz, and particularly the statistical distribution of the polarization fraction (p) and angle (Psi), in order to characterize the ordered and turbulent components of the Galactic magnetic field (GMF) in the solar neighbourhood. The Q and U maps show patterns at large angular scales, which we relate to the mean orientation of the GMF towards Galactic coordinates (l(0); b(0)) = (70 degrees +/- 5 degrees, 24 degrees +/- 5 degrees). The histogram of the observed p values shows a wide dispersion up to 25%. The histogram Psi of has a standard deviation of 12 degrees about the regular pattern expected from the ordered GMF. We build a phenomenological model that connects the distributions of p and Psi to a statistical description of the turbulent component of the GMF, assuming a uniform effective polarization fraction (p(0)) of dust emission. To compute the Stokes parameters, we approximate the integration along the line of sight (LOS) as a sum over a set of N independent polarization layers, in each of which the turbulent component of the GMF is obtained from Gaussian realizations of a power-law power spectrum. We are able to reproduce the observed p and distributions using a p0 value of 26%, a ratio of 0.9 between the strengths of the turbulent and mean components of the GMF, and a small value of N. The mean value of p (inferred from the fit of the large-scale patterns in the Stokes maps) is 12 +/- 1%. We relate the polarization layers to the density structure and to the correlation length of the GMF along the LOS. We emphasize the simplicity of our model (involving only a few parameters), which can be easily computed on the celestial sphere to produce simulated maps of dust polarization. Our work is an important step towards a model that can be used to assess the accuracy of component-separation methods in present and future CMB experiments designed to search the B mode CMB polarization from primordial gravity waves.
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| 8. |
- Aghanim, N., et al.
(författare)
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Planck intermediate results XLVI. Reduction of large-scale systematic effects in HFI polarization maps and estimation of the reionization optical depth
- 2016
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 596
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper describes the identification, modelling, and removal of previously unexplained systematic effects in the polarization data of the Planck High Frequency Instrument (HFI) on large angular scales, including new mapmaking and calibration procedures, new and more complete end-to-end simulations, and a set of robust internal consistency checks on the resulting maps. These maps, at 100, 143, 217, and 353 GHz, are early versions of those that will be released in final form later in 2016. The improvements allow us to determine the cosmic reionization optical depth tau using, for the first time, the low-multipole EE data from HFI, reducing significantly the central value and uncertainty, and hence the upper limit. Two different likelihood procedures are used to constrain tau from two estimators of the CMB E- and B-mode angular power spectra at 100 and 143 GHz, after debiasing the spectra from a small remaining systematic contamination. These all give fully consistent results. A further consistency test is performed using cross-correlations derived from the Low Frequency Instrument maps of the Planck 2015 data release and the new HFI data. For this purpose, end-to-end analyses of systematic effects from the two instruments are used to demonstrate the near independence of their dominant systematic error residuals. The tightest result comes from the HFI-based tau posterior distribution using the maximum likelihood power spectrum estimator from EE data only, giving a value 0.055 +/- 0.009. In a companion paper these results are discussed in the context of the best-fit Planck Lambda CDM cosmological model and recent models of reionization.
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| 9. |
- Aghanim, N., et al.
(författare)
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Planck 2018 results V. CMB power spectra and likelihoods
- 2020
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 641
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We describe the legacy Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) likelihoods derived from the 2018 data release. The overall approach is similar in spirit to the one retained for the 2013 and 2015 data release, with a hybrid method using different approximations at low (l< 30) and high (l >= 30) multipoles, implementing several methodological and data-analysis refinements compared to previous releases. With more realistic simulations, and better correction and modelling of systematic effects, we can now make full use of the CMB polarization observed in the High Frequency Instrument (HFI) channels. The low-multipole EE cross-spectra from the 100 GHz and 143 GHz data give a constraint on the Lambda CDM reionization optical-depth parameter tau to better than 15% (in combination with the TT low-l data and the high-l temperature and polarization data), tightening constraints on all parameters with posterior distributions correlated with tau. We also update the weaker constraint on tau from the joint TEB likelihood using the Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) channels, which was used in 2015 as part of our baseline analysis. At higher multipoles, the CMB temperature spectrum and likelihood are very similar to previous releases. A better model of the temperature-to-polarization leakage and corrections for the effective calibrations of the polarization channels (i.e., the polarization efficiencies) allow us to make full use of polarization spectra, improving the Lambda CDM constraints on the parameters theta(MC), omega(c), omega(b), and H-0 by more than 30%, and n(s) by more than 20% compared to TT-only constraints. Extensive tests on the robustness of the modelling of the polarization data demonstrate good consistency, with some residual modelling uncertainties. At high multipoles, we are now limited mainly by the accuracy of the polarization efficiency modelling. Using our various tests, simulations, and comparison between different high-multipole likelihood implementations, we estimate the consistency of the results to be better than the 0.5 sigma level on the Lambda CDM parameters, as well as classical single-parameter extensions for the joint likelihood (to be compared to the 0.3 sigma levels we achieved in 2015 for the temperature data alone on Lambda CDM only). Minor curiosities already present in the previous releases remain, such as the differences between the best-fit Lambda CDM parameters for the l< 800 and l> 800 ranges of the power spectrum, or the preference for more smoothing of the power-spectrum peaks than predicted in Lambda CDM fits. These are shown to be driven by the temperature power spectrum and are not significantly modified by the inclusion of the polarization data. Overall, the legacy Planck CMB likelihoods provide a robust tool for constraining the cosmological model and represent a reference for future CMB observations.
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| 10. |
- Aghanim, N., et al.
(författare)
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Planck 2018 results VIII. Gravitational lensing
- 2020
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 641
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing potential using the final Planck 2018 temperature and polarization data. Using polarization maps filtered to account for the noise anisotropy, we increase the significance of the detection of lensing in the polarization maps from 5 sigma to 9 sigma. Combined with temperature, lensing is detected at 40 sigma. We present an extensive set of tests of the robustness of the lensing-potential power spectrum, and construct a minimum-variance estimator likelihood over lensing multipoles 8 <= L <= 400 (extending the range to lower L compared to 2015), which we use to constrain cosmological parameters. We find good consistency between lensing constraints and the results from the Planck CMB power spectra within the Lambda CDM model. Combined with baryon density and other weak priors, the lensing analysis alone constrains (8)Omega (0.25)(m) = 0.589 +/- 0.020 sigma 8 Omega m 0.25 = 0.589 +/- 0.020 (1 sigma errors). Also combining with baryon acoustic oscillation data, we find tight individual parameter constraints, sigma (8)=0.811 +/- 0.019, H-0 = 67.9(-1.3)(+1.2) km s(-1) Mpc(-1) H 0 = 67 . 9 - 1.3 + 1.2 .> km s - 1 . Mpc - 1 , and Omega (m) = 0.303(-0.018)(+0.016) Omega m = 0 . 303 - 0.018 + 0.016 . Combining with Planck CMB power spectrum data, we measure sigma (8) to better than 1% precision, finding sigma (8)=0.811 +/- 0.006. CMB lensing reconstruction data are complementary to galaxy lensing data at lower redshift, having a different degeneracy direction in sigma (8)-Omega (m) space; we find consistency with the lensing results from the Dark Energy Survey, and give combined lensing-only parameter constraints that are tighter than joint results using galaxy clustering. Using the Planck cosmic infrared background (CIB) maps as an additional tracer of high-redshift matter, we make a combined Planck-only estimate of the lensing potential over 60% of the sky with considerably more small-scale signal. We additionally demonstrate delensing of the Planck power spectra using the joint and individual lensing potential estimates, detecting a maximum removal of 40% of the lensing-induced power in all spectra. The improvement in the sharpening of the acoustic peaks by including both CIB and the quadratic lensing reconstruction is detected at high significance.
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