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- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)
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3. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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State of the Climate in 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 98:8, s. S1-S280
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.
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- Akrami, Y., et al.
(författare)
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Planck 2018 results X. Constraints on inflation
- 2020
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 641
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report on the implications for cosmic inflation of the 2018 release of the Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy measurements. The results are fully consistent with those reported using the data from the two previous Planck cosmological releases, but have smaller uncertainties thanks to improvements in the characterization of polarization at low and high multipoles. Planck temperature, polarization, and lensing data determine the spectral index of scalar perturbations to be n(s)=0.9649 +/- 0.0042 at 68% CL. We find no evidence for a scale dependence of n(s), either as a running or as a running of the running. The Universe is found to be consistent with spatial flatness with a precision of 0.4% at 95% CL by combining Planck with a compilation of baryon acoustic oscillation data. The Planck 95% CL upper limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r(0.002)< 0.10, is further tightened by combining with the BICEP2/Keck Array BK15 data to obtain r(0.002)< 0.056. In the framework of standard single-field inflationary models with Einstein gravity, these results imply that: (a) the predictions of slow-roll models with a concave potential, V(phi) < 0, are increasingly favoured by the data; and (b) based on two different methods for reconstructing the inflaton potential, we find no evidence for dynamics beyond slow roll. Three different methods for the non-parametric reconstruction of the primordial power spectrum consistently confirm a pure power law in the range of comoving scales 0.005 Mpc(-1)k less than or similar to 0.2 Mpc(-1). A complementary analysis also finds no evidence for theoretically motivated parameterized features in the Planck power spectra. For the case of oscillatory features that are logarithmic or linear in k, this result is further strengthened by a new combined analysis including the Planck bispectrum data. The new Planck polarization data provide a stringent test of the adiabaticity of the initial conditions for the cosmological fluctuations. In correlated, mixed adiabatic and isocurvature models, the non-adiabatic contribution to the observed CMB temperature variance is constrained to 1.3%, 1.7%, and 1.7% at 95% CL for cold dark matter, neutrino density, and neutrino velocity, respectively. Planck power spectra plus lensing set constraints on the amplitude of compensated cold dark matter-baryon isocurvature perturbations that are consistent with current complementary measurements. The polarization data also provide improved constraints on inflationary models that predict a small statistically anisotropic quadupolar modulation of the primordial fluctuations. However, the polarization data do not support physical models for a scale-dependent dipolar modulation. All these findings support the key predictions of the standard single-field inflationary models, which will be further tested by future cosmological observations.
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5. |
- Aghanim, N., et al.
(författare)
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Planck 2018 results I. Overview and the cosmological legacy of Planck
- 2020
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 641
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The European Space Agency's Planck satellite, which was dedicated to studying the early Universe and its subsequent evolution, was launched on 14 May 2009. It scanned the microwave and submillimetre sky continuously between 12 August 2009 and 23 October 2013, producing deep, high-resolution, all-sky maps in nine frequency bands from 30 to 857 GHz. This paper presents the cosmological legacy of Planck, which currently provides our strongest constraints on the parameters of the standard cosmological model and some of the tightest limits available on deviations from that model. The 6-parameter Lambda CDM model continues to provide an excellent fit to the cosmic microwave background data at high and low redshift, describing the cosmological information in over a billion map pixels with just six parameters. With 18 peaks in the temperature and polarization angular power spectra constrained well, Planck measures five of the six parameters to better than 1% (simultaneously), with the best-determined parameter (theta (*)) now known to 0.03%. We describe the multi-component sky as seen by Planck, the success of the Lambda CDM model, and the connection to lower-redshift probes of structure formation. We also give a comprehensive summary of the major changes introduced in this 2018 release. The Planck data, alone and in combination with other probes, provide stringent constraints on our models of the early Universe and the large-scale structure within which all astrophysical objects form and evolve. We discuss some lessons learned from the Planck mission, and highlight areas ripe for further experimental advances.
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6. |
- Aghanim, N., et al.
(författare)
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Planck 2018 results VI. Cosmological parameters
- 2020
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 641
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present cosmological parameter results from the final full-mission Planck measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies, combining information from the temperature and polarization maps and the lensing reconstruction. Compared to the 2015 results, improved measurements of large-scale polarization allow the reionization optical depth to be measured with higher precision, leading to significant gains in the precision of other correlated parameters. Improved modelling of the small-scale polarization leads to more robust constraints on many parameters, with residual modelling uncertainties estimated to affect them only at the 0.5 sigma level. We find good consistency with the standard spatially-flat 6-parameter Lambda CDM cosmology having a power-law spectrum of adiabatic scalar perturbations (denoted base Lambda CDM in this paper), from polarization, temperature, and lensing, separately and in combination. A combined analysis gives dark matter density Omega (c)h(2)=0.120 +/- 0.001, baryon density Omega (b)h(2)=0.0224 +/- 0.0001, scalar spectral index n(s)=0.965 +/- 0.004, and optical depth tau =0.054 +/- 0.007 (in this abstract we quote 68% confidence regions on measured parameters and 95% on upper limits). The angular acoustic scale is measured to 0.03% precision, with 100 theta (*)=1.0411 +/- 0.0003. These results are only weakly dependent on the cosmological model and remain stable, with somewhat increased errors, in many commonly considered extensions. Assuming the base-Lambda CDM cosmology, the inferred (model-dependent) late-Universe parameters are: Hubble constant H-0=(67.4 +/- 0.5) km s(-1) Mpc(-1); matter density parameter Omega (m)=0.315 +/- 0.007; and matter fluctuation amplitude sigma (8)=0.811 +/- 0.006. We find no compelling evidence for extensions to the base-Lambda CDM model. Combining with baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements (and considering single-parameter extensions) we constrain the effective extra relativistic degrees of freedom to be N-eff=2.99 +/- 0.17, in agreement with the Standard Model prediction N-eff=3.046, and find that the neutrino mass is tightly constrained to Sigma m(nu)< 0.12 eV. The CMB spectra continue to prefer higher lensing amplitudes than predicted in base CDM at over 2 sigma, which pulls some parameters that affect the lensing amplitude away from the Lambda CDM model; however, this is not supported by the lensing reconstruction or (in models that also change the background geometry) BAO data. The joint constraint with BAO measurements on spatial curvature is consistent with a flat universe, Omega (K)=0.001 +/- 0.002. Also combining with Type Ia supernovae (SNe), the dark-energy equation of state parameter is measured to be w(0)=-1.03 +/- 0.03, consistent with a cosmological constant. We find no evidence for deviations from a purely power-law primordial spectrum, and combining with data from BAO, BICEP2, and Keck Array data, we place a limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r(0.002)< 0.06. Standard big-bang nucleosynthesis predictions for the helium and deuterium abundances for the base-CDM cosmology are in excellent agreement with observations. The Planck base-Lambda CDM results are in good agreement with BAO, SNe, and some galaxy lensing observations, but in slight tension with the Dark Energy Survey's combined-probe results including galaxy clustering (which prefers lower fluctuation amplitudes or matter density parameters), and in significant, 3.6 sigma, tension with local measurements of the Hubble constant (which prefer a higher value). Simple model extensions that can partially resolve these tensions are not favoured by the Planck data.
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- Aghanim, N., et al.
(författare)
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Planck intermediate results LIII. Detection of velocity dispersion from the kinetic Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect
- 2018
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 617
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using the Planck full-mission data, we present a detection of the temperature (and therefore velocity) dispersion due to the kinetic Sunyaev-Zeldovich (kSZ) effect from clusters of galaxies. To suppress the primary CMB and instrumental noise we derive a matched filter and then convolve it with the Planck foreground-cleaned 2D- ILC maps. By using the Meta Catalogue of X-ray detected Clusters of galaxies (MCXC), we determine the normalized rms dispersion of the temperature fluctuations at the positions of clusters, finding that this shows excess variance compared with the noise expectation. We then build an unbiased statistical estimator of the signal, determining that the normalized mean temperature dispersion of 1526 clusters is <(Delta T/T)(2))> = (1.64 +/- 0.48) x 10(-11). However, comparison with analytic calculations and simulations suggest that around 0.7 sigma of this result is due to cluster lensing rather than the kSZ effect. By correcting this, the temperature dispersion is measured to be <(Delta T/T)(2))> = (1.35 +/- 0.48) x 10(-11), which gives a detection at the 2.8 sigma level. We further convert uniform-weight temperature dispersion into a measurement of the line-of-sight velocity dispersion, by using estimates of the optical depth of each cluster (which introduces additional uncertainty into the estimate). We find that the velocity dispersion is (v(2)) = (123 000 +/- 71 000) (km s(-1))(2), which is consistent with findings from other large-scale structure studies, and provides direct evidence of statistical homogeneity on scales of 600 h(-1) Mpc. Our study shows the promise of using cross-correlations of the kSZ effect with large-scale structure in order to constrain the growth of structure.
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- Aghanim, N., et al.
(författare)
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Planck intermediate results XLIV. Structure of the Galactic magnetic field from dust polarization maps of the southern Galactic cap
- 2016
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 596
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using data from the Planck satellite, we study the statistical properties of interstellar dust polarization at high Galactic latitudes around the south pole (b < -60 degrees). Our aim is to advance the understanding of the magnetized interstellar medium (ISM), and to provide a modelling framework of the polarized dust foreground for use in cosmic microwave background (CMB) component-separation procedures. We examine the Stokes I, Q, and U maps at 353 GHz, and particularly the statistical distribution of the polarization fraction (p) and angle (Psi), in order to characterize the ordered and turbulent components of the Galactic magnetic field (GMF) in the solar neighbourhood. The Q and U maps show patterns at large angular scales, which we relate to the mean orientation of the GMF towards Galactic coordinates (l(0); b(0)) = (70 degrees +/- 5 degrees, 24 degrees +/- 5 degrees). The histogram of the observed p values shows a wide dispersion up to 25%. The histogram Psi of has a standard deviation of 12 degrees about the regular pattern expected from the ordered GMF. We build a phenomenological model that connects the distributions of p and Psi to a statistical description of the turbulent component of the GMF, assuming a uniform effective polarization fraction (p(0)) of dust emission. To compute the Stokes parameters, we approximate the integration along the line of sight (LOS) as a sum over a set of N independent polarization layers, in each of which the turbulent component of the GMF is obtained from Gaussian realizations of a power-law power spectrum. We are able to reproduce the observed p and distributions using a p0 value of 26%, a ratio of 0.9 between the strengths of the turbulent and mean components of the GMF, and a small value of N. The mean value of p (inferred from the fit of the large-scale patterns in the Stokes maps) is 12 +/- 1%. We relate the polarization layers to the density structure and to the correlation length of the GMF along the LOS. We emphasize the simplicity of our model (involving only a few parameters), which can be easily computed on the celestial sphere to produce simulated maps of dust polarization. Our work is an important step towards a model that can be used to assess the accuracy of component-separation methods in present and future CMB experiments designed to search the B mode CMB polarization from primordial gravity waves.
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- Aghanim, N., et al.
(författare)
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Planck intermediate results XLIX. Parity-violation constraints from polarization data
- 2016
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 596
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Parity-violating extensions of the standard electromagnetic theory cause in vacuo rotation of the plane of polarization of propagating photons. This effect, also known as cosmic birefringence, has an impact on the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy angular power spectra, producing non-vanishing T-B and E-B correlations that are otherwise null when parity is a symmetry. Here we present new constraints on an isotropic rotation, parametrized by the angle alpha, derived from Planck 2015 CMB polarization data. To increase the robustness of our analyses, we employ two complementary approaches, in harmonic space and in map space, the latter based on a peak stacking technique. The two approaches provide estimates for alpha that are in agreement within statistical uncertainties and are very stable against several consistency tests. Considering the T-B and E-B information jointly, we find alpha = 0 degrees: 31 +/- 0 degrees.05 (stat:) +/- 0 degrees:28 (syst:) from the harmonic analysis and alpha = 0 degrees.35 +/- 0 degrees.05 (stat :) 0 degrees.28 (syst :) from the stacking approach. These constraints are compatible with no parity violation and are dominated by the systematic uncertainty in the orientation of Planck's polarization-sensitive bolometers.
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- Aghanim, N., et al.
(författare)
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Planck intermediate results XLVIII. Disentangling Galactic dust emission and cosmic infrared background anisotropies
- 2016
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 596
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using the Planck 2015 data release (PR2) temperature maps, we separate Galactic thermal dust emission from cosmic infrared background (CIB) anisotropies. For this purpose, we implement a specifically tailored component-separation method, the so-called generalized needlet internal linear combination (GNILC) method, which uses spatial information (the angular power spectra) to disentangle the Galactic dust emission and CIB anisotropies. We produce significantly improved all-sky maps of Planck thermal dust emission, with reduced CIB contamination, at 353, 545, and 857 GHz. By reducing the CIB contamination of the thermal dust maps, we provide more accurate estimates of the local dust temperature and dust spectral index over the sky with reduced dispersion, especially at high Galactic latitudes above b = +/- 20 degrees. We find that the dust temperature is T = (19.4 +/- 1.3) K and the dust spectral index is beta = 1.6 +/- 0.1 averaged over the whole sky, while T = (19.4 +/- 1.5) K and beta = 1.6 +/- 0.2 on 21% of the sky at high latitudes. Moreover, subtracting the new CIB-removed thermal dust maps from the CMB-removed Planck maps gives access to the CIB anisotropies over 60% of the sky at Galactic latitudes vertical bar b vertical bar > 20 degrees. Because they are a significant improvement over previous Planck products, the GNILC maps are recommended for thermal dust science. The new CIB maps can be regarded as indirect tracers of the dark matter and they are recommended for exploring cross-correlations with lensing and large-scale structure optical surveys. The reconstructed GNILC thermal dust and CIB maps are delivered as Planck products.
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