| 1. |
|
|
| 2. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
-
STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)
|
|
| 3. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
-
State of the Climate in 2016
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 98:8, s. S1-S280
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.
|
|
| 4. |
- Blunden, Jessica, et al.
(författare)
-
State of the Climate in 2012
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 94:8, s. S1-S258
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional climate conditions around the globe. A weak La Ni a dissipated to ENSOneutral conditions by spring, and while El Nino appeared to be emerging during summer, this phase never fully developed as sea surface temperatures in the eastern conditions. Nevertheless, other large-scale climate patterns and extreme weather events impacted various regions during the year. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation from mid-January to early February contributed to frigid conditions in parts of northern Africa, eastern Europe, and western Asia. A lack of rain during the 2012 wet season led to the worst drought in at least the past three decades for northeastern Brazil. Central North America also experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. The Caribbean observed a very wet dry season and it was the Sahel's wettest rainy season in 50 years. Overall, the 2012 average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces ranked among the 10 warmest years on record. The global land surface temperature alone was also among the 10 warmest on record. In the upper atmosphere, the average stratospheric temperature was record or near-record cold, depending on the dataset. After a 30-year warming trend from 1970 to 1999 for global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000-12 had little further trend. This may be linked to the prevalence of La Ni a-like conditions during the 21st century. Heat content in the upper 700 m of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Net increases from 2011 to 2012 were observed at 700-m to 2000-m depth and even in the abyssal ocean below. Following sharp decreases in to the effects of La Ni a, sea levels rebounded to reach records highs in 2012. The increased hydrological cycle seen in recent years continued, with more evaporation in drier locations and more precipitation in rainy areas. In a pattern that has held since 2004, salty areas of the ocean surfaces and subsurfaces were anomalously salty on average, while fresher areas were anomalously fresh. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity. In this basin, Sandy brought devastation to Cuba and parts of the eastern North American seaboard. All other basins experienced either near-or below-normal tropical cyclone activity. Only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity-all in Bopha became the only storm in the historical record to produce winds greater than 130 kt south of 7 N. It was also the costliest storm to affect the Philippines and killed more than 1000 residents. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June both reached new record lows. June snow cover extent is now declining at a faster rate (-17.6% per decade) than September sea ice extent (-13.0% per decade). Permafrost temperatures reached record high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred on 11-12 July on the Greenland ice sheet; 97% of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt for this time of year. The climate in Antarctica was relatively stable overall. The largest maximum sea ice extent since records begain in 1978 was observed in September 2012. In the stratosphere, warm air led to the second smallest ozone hole in the past two decades. Even so, the springtime ozone layer above Antarctica likely will not return to its early 1980s state until about 2060. Following a slight decline associated with the global 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record 9.5 +/- 0.5 Pg C in 2011 and a new record of 9.7 +/- 0.5 Pg C is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, to 392.6 ppm. In spring 2012, 2 concentration exceeded 400 ppm at 7 of the 13 Arctic observation sites. Globally, other greenhouse gases including methane and nitrous oxide also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 32% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Concentrations of most ozone depleting substances continued to fall.
|
|
| 5. |
- Aghanim, N., et al.
(författare)
-
Planck intermediate results XLVI. Reduction of large-scale systematic effects in HFI polarization maps and estimation of the reionization optical depth
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 596
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper describes the identification, modelling, and removal of previously unexplained systematic effects in the polarization data of the Planck High Frequency Instrument (HFI) on large angular scales, including new mapmaking and calibration procedures, new and more complete end-to-end simulations, and a set of robust internal consistency checks on the resulting maps. These maps, at 100, 143, 217, and 353 GHz, are early versions of those that will be released in final form later in 2016. The improvements allow us to determine the cosmic reionization optical depth tau using, for the first time, the low-multipole EE data from HFI, reducing significantly the central value and uncertainty, and hence the upper limit. Two different likelihood procedures are used to constrain tau from two estimators of the CMB E- and B-mode angular power spectra at 100 and 143 GHz, after debiasing the spectra from a small remaining systematic contamination. These all give fully consistent results. A further consistency test is performed using cross-correlations derived from the Low Frequency Instrument maps of the Planck 2015 data release and the new HFI data. For this purpose, end-to-end analyses of systematic effects from the two instruments are used to demonstrate the near independence of their dominant systematic error residuals. The tightest result comes from the HFI-based tau posterior distribution using the maximum likelihood power spectrum estimator from EE data only, giving a value 0.055 +/- 0.009. In a companion paper these results are discussed in the context of the best-fit Planck Lambda CDM cosmological model and recent models of reionization.
|
|
| 6. |
- Adam, R., et al.
(författare)
-
Planck intermediate results XLVII. Planck constraints on reionization history
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 596
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We investigate constraints on cosmic reionization extracted from the Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) data. We combine the Planck CMB anisotropy data in temperature with the low-multipole polarization data to fit Lambda CDM models with various parameterizations of the reionization history. We obtain a Thomson optical depth tau = 0.058 +/- 0.012 for the commonly adopted instantaneous reionization model. This confirms, with data solely from CMB anisotropies, the low value suggested by combining Planck 2015 results with other data sets, and also reduces the uncertainties. We reconstruct the history of the ionization fraction using either a symmetric or an asymmetric model for the transition between the neutral and ionized phases. To determine better constraints on the duration of the reionization process, we also make use of measurements of the amplitude of the kinetic Sunyaev-Zeldovich (kSZ) effect using additional information from the high-resolution Atacama Cosmology Telescope and South Pole Telescope experiments. The average redshift at which reionization occurs is found to lie between z = 7.8 and 8.8, depending on the model of reionization adopted. Using kSZ constraints and a redshift-symmetric reionization model, we find an upper limit to the width of the reionization period of Delta z < 2.8. In all cases, we find that the Universe is ionized at less than the 10% level at redshifts above z similar or equal to 10. This suggests that an early onset of reionization is strongly disfavoured by the Planck data. We show that this result also reduces the tension between CMB-based analyses and constraints from other astrophysical sources.
|
|
| 7. |
- Aghanim, N., et al.
(författare)
-
Planck 2018 results I. Overview and the cosmological legacy of Planck
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 641
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The European Space Agency's Planck satellite, which was dedicated to studying the early Universe and its subsequent evolution, was launched on 14 May 2009. It scanned the microwave and submillimetre sky continuously between 12 August 2009 and 23 October 2013, producing deep, high-resolution, all-sky maps in nine frequency bands from 30 to 857 GHz. This paper presents the cosmological legacy of Planck, which currently provides our strongest constraints on the parameters of the standard cosmological model and some of the tightest limits available on deviations from that model. The 6-parameter Lambda CDM model continues to provide an excellent fit to the cosmic microwave background data at high and low redshift, describing the cosmological information in over a billion map pixels with just six parameters. With 18 peaks in the temperature and polarization angular power spectra constrained well, Planck measures five of the six parameters to better than 1% (simultaneously), with the best-determined parameter (theta (*)) now known to 0.03%. We describe the multi-component sky as seen by Planck, the success of the Lambda CDM model, and the connection to lower-redshift probes of structure formation. We also give a comprehensive summary of the major changes introduced in this 2018 release. The Planck data, alone and in combination with other probes, provide stringent constraints on our models of the early Universe and the large-scale structure within which all astrophysical objects form and evolve. We discuss some lessons learned from the Planck mission, and highlight areas ripe for further experimental advances.
|
|
| 8. |
- Aghanim, N., et al.
(författare)
-
Planck 2018 results VI. Cosmological parameters
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 641
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present cosmological parameter results from the final full-mission Planck measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies, combining information from the temperature and polarization maps and the lensing reconstruction. Compared to the 2015 results, improved measurements of large-scale polarization allow the reionization optical depth to be measured with higher precision, leading to significant gains in the precision of other correlated parameters. Improved modelling of the small-scale polarization leads to more robust constraints on many parameters, with residual modelling uncertainties estimated to affect them only at the 0.5 sigma level. We find good consistency with the standard spatially-flat 6-parameter Lambda CDM cosmology having a power-law spectrum of adiabatic scalar perturbations (denoted base Lambda CDM in this paper), from polarization, temperature, and lensing, separately and in combination. A combined analysis gives dark matter density Omega (c)h(2)=0.120 +/- 0.001, baryon density Omega (b)h(2)=0.0224 +/- 0.0001, scalar spectral index n(s)=0.965 +/- 0.004, and optical depth tau =0.054 +/- 0.007 (in this abstract we quote 68% confidence regions on measured parameters and 95% on upper limits). The angular acoustic scale is measured to 0.03% precision, with 100 theta (*)=1.0411 +/- 0.0003. These results are only weakly dependent on the cosmological model and remain stable, with somewhat increased errors, in many commonly considered extensions. Assuming the base-Lambda CDM cosmology, the inferred (model-dependent) late-Universe parameters are: Hubble constant H-0=(67.4 +/- 0.5) km s(-1) Mpc(-1); matter density parameter Omega (m)=0.315 +/- 0.007; and matter fluctuation amplitude sigma (8)=0.811 +/- 0.006. We find no compelling evidence for extensions to the base-Lambda CDM model. Combining with baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements (and considering single-parameter extensions) we constrain the effective extra relativistic degrees of freedom to be N-eff=2.99 +/- 0.17, in agreement with the Standard Model prediction N-eff=3.046, and find that the neutrino mass is tightly constrained to Sigma m(nu)< 0.12 eV. The CMB spectra continue to prefer higher lensing amplitudes than predicted in base CDM at over 2 sigma, which pulls some parameters that affect the lensing amplitude away from the Lambda CDM model; however, this is not supported by the lensing reconstruction or (in models that also change the background geometry) BAO data. The joint constraint with BAO measurements on spatial curvature is consistent with a flat universe, Omega (K)=0.001 +/- 0.002. Also combining with Type Ia supernovae (SNe), the dark-energy equation of state parameter is measured to be w(0)=-1.03 +/- 0.03, consistent with a cosmological constant. We find no evidence for deviations from a purely power-law primordial spectrum, and combining with data from BAO, BICEP2, and Keck Array data, we place a limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r(0.002)< 0.06. Standard big-bang nucleosynthesis predictions for the helium and deuterium abundances for the base-CDM cosmology are in excellent agreement with observations. The Planck base-Lambda CDM results are in good agreement with BAO, SNe, and some galaxy lensing observations, but in slight tension with the Dark Energy Survey's combined-probe results including galaxy clustering (which prefers lower fluctuation amplitudes or matter density parameters), and in significant, 3.6 sigma, tension with local measurements of the Hubble constant (which prefer a higher value). Simple model extensions that can partially resolve these tensions are not favoured by the Planck data.
|
|
| 9. |
- Aghanim, N., et al.
(författare)
-
Planck intermediate results LI. Features in the cosmic microwave background temperature power spectrum and shifts in cosmological parameters
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 607
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The six parameters of the standard Lambda CDM model have best-fit values derived from the Planck temperature power spectrum that are shifted somewhat from the best-fit values derived from WMAP data. These shifts are driven by features in the Planck temperature power spectrum at angular scales that had never before been measured to cosmic-variance level precision. We have investigated these shifts to determine whether they are within the range of expectation and to understand their origin in the data. Taking our parameter set to be the optical depth of the reionized intergalactic medium tau, the baryon density omega(b), the matter density omega(m), the angular size of the sound horizon theta(*), the spectral index of the primordial power spectrum, n(s), and A(s)e(-2 pi) (where As is the amplitude of the primordial power spectrum), we have examined the change in best-fit values between a WMAP-like large angular-scale data set (with multipole moment l < 800 in the Planck temperature power spectrum) and an all angular-scale data set (l < 2500 Planck temperature power spectrum), each with a prior on tau of 0.07 +/- 0.02. We find that the shifts, in units of the 1 sigma expected dispersion for each parameter, are {Delta tau, Delta A(s)e(-2 tau), Delta n(s), Delta omega(m), Delta omega(b), Delta theta(*)} = {-1.7, -2.2, 1.2, 2.0, 1.1, 0.9}, with a chi(2) value of 8.0. We find that this chi(2) value is exceeded in 15% of our simulated data sets, and that a parameter deviates by more than 2.2 sigma in 9% of simulated data sets, meaning that the shifts are not unusually large. Comparing l < 800 instead to l > 800, or splitting at a different multipole, yields similar results. We examined the l < 800 model residuals in the l > 800 power spectrum data and find that the features there that drive these shifts are a set of oscillations across a broad range of angular scales. Although they partly appear similar to the effects of enhanced gravitational lensing, the shifts in Lambda CDM parameters that arise in response to these features correspond to model spectrum changes that are predominantly due to non-lensing effects; the only exception is tau, which, at fixed A(s)e(-2 tau), affects the l > 800 temperature power spectrum solely through the associated change in As and the impact of that on the lensing potential power spectrum. We also ask, what is it about the power spectrum at l < 800 that leads to somewhat different best-fit parameters than come from the full l range? We find that if we discard the data at l < 30, where there is a roughly 2 sigma downward fluctuation in power relative to the model that best fits the full l range, the l < 800 best-fit parameters shift significantly towards the l < 2500 best-fit parameters. In contrast, including l < 30, this previously noted low-l deficit drives ns up and impacts parameters correlated with ns, such as omega(m) and H-0. As expected, the l < 30 data have a much greater impact on the l < 800 best fit than on the l < 2500 best fit. So although the shifts are not very significant, we find that they can be understood through the combined effects of an oscillatory-like set of high-l residuals and the deficit in low-l power, excursions consistent with sample variance that happen to map onto changes in cosmological parameters. Finally, we examine agreement between Planck TT data and two other CMB data sets, namely the Planck lensing reconstruction and the TT power spectrum measured by the South Pole Telescope, again finding a lack of convincing evidence of any significant deviations in parameters, suggesting that current CMB data sets give an internally consistent picture of the Lambda CDM model.
|
|
| 10. |
- Mercuri, E., et al.
(författare)
-
Safety and effectiveness of ataluren: comparison of results from the STRIDE Registry and CINRG DMD Natural History Study
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Journal of Comparative Effectiveness Research. - : Becaris Publishing Limited. - 2042-6305 .- 2042-6313. ; 9:5, s. 341-360
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim: Strategic Targeting of Registries and International Database of Excellence (STRIDE) is an ongoing, multicenter registry providing real-world evidence regarding ataluren use in patients with nonsense mutation Duchenne muscular dystrophy (nmDMD). We examined the effectiveness of ataluren + standard of care (SoC) in the registry versus SoC alone in the Cooperative International Neuromuscular Research Group (CINRG) Duchenne Natural History Study (DNHS), DMD genotype-phenotype/-ataluren benefit correlations and ataluren safety. Patients & methods: Propensity score matching was performed to identify STRIDE and CINRG DNHS patients who were comparable in established disease progression predictors (registry cut-off date, 9 July 2018). Results & conclusion: Kaplan-Meier analyses demonstrated that ataluren + SoC significantly delayed age at loss of ambulation and age at worsening performance in timed function tests versus SoC alone (p <= 0.05). There were no DMD genotype-phenotype/ataluren benefit correlations. Ataluren was well tolerated. These results indicate that ataluren + SoC delays functional milestones of DMD progression in patients with nmDMD in routine clinical practice. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02369731. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02369731.
|
|
