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- Bowman, L. R., et al.
(författare)
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Alarm Variables for Dengue Outbreaks: A Multi-Centre Study in Asia and Latin America
- 2016
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Ingår i: Plos One. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 11:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Worldwide, dengue is an unrelenting economic and health burden. Dengue outbreaks have become increasingly common, which place great strain on health infrastructure and services. Early warning models could allow health systems and vector control programmes to respond more cost-effectively and efficiently. The Shewhart method and Endemic Channel were used to identify alarm variables that may predict dengue outbreaks. Five country datasets were compiled by epidemiological week over the years 2007-2013. These data were split between the years 2007-2011 (historic period) and 2012-2013 (evaluation period). Associations between alarm/outbreak variables were analysed using logistic regression during the historic period while alarm and outbreak signals were captured during the evaluation period. These signals were combined to form alarm/outbreak periods, where 2 signals were equal to 1 period. Alarm periods were quantified and used to predict subsequent outbreak periods. Across Mexico and Dominican Republic, an increase in probable cases predicted outbreaks of hospitalised cases with sensitivities and positive predictive values (PPV) of 93%/83% and 97%/86% respectively, at a lag of 1-12 weeks. An increase in mean temperature ably predicted outbreaks of hospitalised cases in Mexico and Brazil, with sensitivities and PPVs of 79%/73% and 81%/46% respectively, also at a lag of 1-12 weeks. Mean age was predictive of hospitalised cases at sensitivities and PPVs of 72%/74% and 96%/45% in Mexico and Malaysia respectively, at a lag of 4-16 weeks. An increase in probable cases was predictive of outbreaks, while meteorological variables, particularly mean temperature, demonstrated predictive potential in some countries, but not all. While it is difficult to define uniform variables applicable in every country context, the use of probable cases and meteorological variables in tailored early warning systems could be used to highlight the occurrence of dengue outbreaks or indicate increased risk of dengue transmission.
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- Ferwerda, Bart, et al.
(författare)
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Functional and genetic evidence that the Mal/TIRAP allele variant 180L has been selected by providing protection against septic shock.
- 2009
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 106:25, s. 10272-10277
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Adequate responses by our innate immune system toward invading pathogens were of vital importance for surviving infections, especially before the antibiotic era. Recently, a polymorphism in Mal (Ser180Leu, TIRAP rs8177374), an important adaptor protein downstream of the Toll-like receptor (TLR) 2 and 4 pathways, has been described to provide protection against a broad range of infectious pathogens. We assessed the functional effects of this polymorphism in human experimental endotoxemia, and we demonstrate that individuals bearing the TIRAP 180L allele display an increased, innate immune response to TLR4 and TLR2 ligands, but not to TLR9 stimulation. This phenotype has been related to an increased resistance to infection. However, an overshoot in the release of proinflammatory cytokines by TIRAP 180L homozygous individuals suggests a scenario of balanced evolution. We have also investigated the worldwide distribution of the Ser180Leu polymorphism in 14 populations around the globe to correlate the genetic makeup of TIRAP with the local infectious pressures. Based on the immunological, clinical, and genetic data, we propose that this mutation might have been selected in West Eurasia during the early settlement of this region after the out-of-Africa migration of modern Homo sapiens. This combination of functional and genetic data provides unique insights to our understanding of the pathogenesis of sepsis.
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- Weir-McCall, Jonathan R., et al.
(författare)
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Development and validation of a path length calculation for carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity measurement : A TASCFORCE, SUMMIT, and caerphilly collaborative venture
- 2018
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Ingår i: Hypertension. - 0194-911X. ; 71:5, s. 937-945
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Current distance measurement techniques for pulse wave velocity (PWV) calculation are susceptible to intercenter variability. The aim of this study was to derive and validate a formula for this distance measurement. Based on carotid femoral distance in 1183 whole-body magnetic resonance angiograms, a formula was derived for calculating distance. This was compared with distance measurements in 128 whole-body magnetic resonance angiograms from a second study. The effects of recalculation of PWV using the new formula on association with risk factors, disease discrimination, and prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events were examined within 1242 participants from the multicenter SUMMIT study (Surrogate Markers of Micro- and Macrovascular Hard End-Points for Innovative Diabetes Tools) and 825 participants from the Caerphilly Prospective Study. The distance formula yielded a mean error of 7.8 mm (limits of agreement =-41.1 to 56.7 mm; P<0.001) compared with the second whole-body magnetic resonance angiogram group. Compared with an external distance measurement, the distance formula did not change associations between PWV and age, blood pressure, or creatinine (P<0.01) but did remove significant associations between PWV and body mass index (BMI). After accounting for differences in age, sex, and mean arterial pressure, intercenter differences in PWV persisted using the external distance measurement (F=4.6; P=0.004), whereas there was a loss of between center difference using the distance formula (F=1.4; P=0.24). PWV odds ratios for cardiovascular mortality remained the same using both the external distance measurement (1.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.24; P=0.001) and the distance formula (1.17; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.28; P<0.001). A population-derived automatic distance calculation for PWV obtained from routinely collected clinical information is accurate and removes intercenter measurement variability without impacting the diagnostic utility of carotid-femoral PWV.
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- Berryhill, Brandon A., et al.
(författare)
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Evaluating the potential efficacy and limitations of a phage for joint antibiotic and phage therapy of Staphylococcus aureus infections
- 2021
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 118:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In response to increasing frequencies of antibiotic-resistant pathogens, there has been a resurrection of interest in the use of bacteriophage to treat bacterial infections: phage therapy. Here we explore the potential of a seemingly ideal phage, PYOSa, for combination phage and antibiotic treatment of Staphylococcus aureus infections. This K-like phage has a broad host range; all 83 tested clinical isolates of S.aureus tested were susceptible to PYOSa. Because of the mode of action of PYOSa, S. aureus is unlikely to generate classical receptor-site mutants resistant to PYOSa; none were observed in the 13 clinical isolates tested. PYOSa kills S. aureus at high rates. On the downside, the results of our experiments and tests of the joint action of PYOSa and antibiotics raise issues that must be addressed before PYOSa is employed clinically. Despite the maintenance of the phage, PYOSa does not clear populations of S. aureus. Due to the ascent of a phenotyically diverse array of small-colony variants following an initial demise, the bacterial populations return to densities similar to that of phage-free controls. Using a combination of mathematical modeling and in vitro experiments, we postulate and present evidence for a mechanism to account for the demise-resurrection dynamics of PYOSa and S. aureus. Critically for phage therapy, our experimental results suggest that treatment with PYOSa followed by bactericidal antibiotics can clear populations of S. aureus more effectively than the antibiotics alone.
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