| 1. |
- Pennells, Lisa, et al.
(author)
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Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration : individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies
- 2019
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In: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 40:7, s. 621-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.
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| 2. |
- Wormser, David, et al.
(author)
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Adult height and the risk of cause-specific death and vascular morbidity in 1 million people : individual participant meta-analysis
- 2012
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In: International Journal of Epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0300-5771 .- 1464-3685. ; 41:5, s. 1419-1433
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BackgroundThe extent to which adult height, a biomarker of the interplay of genetic endowment and early-life experiences, is related to risk of chronic diseases in adulthood is uncertain.MethodsWe calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for height, assessed in increments of 6.5 cm, using individual-participant data on 174 374 deaths or major non-fatal vascular outcomes recorded among 1 085 949 people in 121 prospective studies.ResultsFor people born between 1900 and 1960, mean adult height increased 0.5-1 cm with each successive decade of birth. After adjustment for age, sex, smoking and year of birth, HRs per 6.5 cm greater height were 0.97 (95% confidence interval: 0.96-0.99) for death from any cause, 0.94 (0.93-0.96) for death from vascular causes, 1.04 (1.03-1.06) for death from cancer and 0.92 (0.90-0.94) for death from other causes. Height was negatively associated with death from coronary disease, stroke subtypes, heart failure, stomach and oral cancers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, mental disorders, liver disease and external causes. In contrast, height was positively associated with death from ruptured aortic aneurysm, pulmonary embolism, melanoma and cancers of the pancreas, endocrine and nervous systems, ovary, breast, prostate, colorectum, blood and lung. HRs per 6.5 cm greater height ranged from 1.26 (1.12-1.42) for risk of melanoma death to 0.84 (0.80-0.89) for risk of death from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. HRs were not appreciably altered after further adjustment for adiposity, blood pressure, lipids, inflammation biomarkers, diabetes mellitus, alcohol consumption or socio-economic indicators.ConclusionAdult height has directionally opposing relationships with risk of death from several different major causes of chronic diseases.
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| 3. |
- Campana, Pietro Elia, et al.
(author)
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Optimal grassland locations for sustainable photovoltaic water pumping systems in China
- 2015
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In: CLEAN, EFFICIENT AND AFFORDABLE ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE. - : Elsevier. ; 75, s. 301-307
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Grassland is of strategic importance for food security of China because of the high number of livestock raised in those areas. Grassland degradation due to climate change and overgrazing is thus regarded as severe environmental and economic threat for a sustainable future development of China. Photovoltaic water pumping (PVWP) systems for irrigation can play an important role for the conservation of grassland areas, halting degradation, improving its productivity and farmers' income and living conditions. The aim of this paper is to identify the technically suitable grassland areas for the implementation of PVWP systems by assessing spatial data on land cover and slope, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and water stress index. Furthermore, the optimal locations for installing PVWP systems have been assessed using a spatially explicit renewable energy systems optimization model based on the minimization of the cost of the whole supply chain. The results indicate that the PVWP-supported grassland areas show high potential in terms of improving forage productivity to contribute to supplying the local demand. Nevertheless, the optimal areas are highly sensitive to several environmental and economic parameters such as ground water depth, forage water requirements, forage price and CO2 emission costs. These parameters need to be carefully considered in the planning process to meet the forage yield potentials. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 4. |
- Khatiwada, Dilip, et al.
(author)
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Optimizing ethanol and bioelectricity production in sugarcane biorefineries in Brazil
- 2016
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In: Renewable energy. - : Elsevier. - 0960-1481 .- 1879-0682. ; 85, s. 371-386
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In sugarcane biorefineries, the lignocellulosic portion of the sugarcane biomass (i.e. bagasse and cane trash) can be used as fuel for electricity production and/or feedstock for second generation (2G) ethanol. This study presents a techno-economic analysis of upgraded sugarcane biorefineries in Brazil, aiming at utilizing surplus bagasse and cane trash for electricity and/or ethanol production. The study investigates the trade-off on sugarcane biomass use for energy production: bioelectricity versus 2G ethanol production. The BeWhere mixed integer and spatially explicit model is used for evaluating the choice of technological options. Different scenarios are developed to find the optimal utilization of sugarcane biomass. The study finds that energy prices, type of electricity substituted, biofuel support and carbon tax, investment costs, and conversion efficiencies are the major factors influencing the technological choice. At the existing market and technological conditions applied in the upgraded biorefineries, 300 PJ y-1 2G ethanol could be optimally produced and exported to the EU, which corresponds to 2.5% of total transport fuel demand in the EU. This study provides a methodological framework on how to optimize the alternative use of agricultural residues and industrial co-products for energy production in agro-industries considering biomass supply chains, the pattern of domestic energy demand, and biofuel trade.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Leduc, Sylvain, et al.
(author)
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Optimal location of lignocellulosic ethanol refineries with polygeneration in Sweden
- 2010
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In: Energy. - : Elsevier. - 0360-5442 .- 1873-6785. ; 35:6, s. 2709-2716
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The integration of ethanol production with combined heat and power plants is considered in this paper. An energy balance process model has been used to generate data for the production of ethanol, electricity, heat and biogas. The geographical position of such plants becomes of importance when using local biomass and delivering transportation fuel and heat. An optimization model has thus been used to determine the optimal locations for such plants in Sweden. The entire energy supply and demand chain from biomass outtake to gas stations filling is included in the optimization. Input parameters have been studied for their influence on both the final ethanol cost and the optimal locations of the plants. The results show that the biomass cost, biomass availability and district heating price are crucial for the positioning of the plant and the ethanol to be competitive against imported ethanol. The optimal location to set up polygeneration plants is demonstrated to be in areas where the biomass cost is competitive and in the vicinity of small to medium size cities. Carbon tax does not influence the ethanol cost, but solicits the production of ethanol in Sweden, and changes thus the geography of the plant locations.
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| 7. |
- Leduc, Sylvain, et al.
(author)
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Optimizing biodiesel production in India
- 2009
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In: Applied Energy. - : Elsevier. - 0306-2619 .- 1872-9118. ; 86:Suppl. 1, s. S125-S131
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- India is expected to at least double its fuel consumption in the transportation sector by 2030. To contribute to the fuel supply, renewable energies such as jatropha appear to be an attractive resource for biodiesel production in India as it can be grown on waste land and does not need intensive water supply. In order to produce biodiesel at a competitive cost, the biodiesel supply chain - from biomass harvesting to biodiesel delivery to the consumers - is analyzed. A mixed integer linear programming model is used in order to determine the optimal number and geographic locations of biodiesel plants. The optimization is based on minimization of the costs of the supply chain with respect to the biomass, production and transportation costs. Three biodiesel blends are considered, B2, B5 and B10. For each blend, 13 scenarios are considered where yield, biomass cost, cake price, glycerol price, transport cost and investment costs are studied. A sensitivity analysis is carried out on both those parameters and the resulting locations of the plants. The emissions of the supply chain are also considered. The results state that the biomass cost has most influence on the biodiesel cost (an increase of feedstock cost increases the biodiesel cost by about 40%) and to a lower effect, the investment cost and the glycerol price. Moreover, choosing the right set of production plant locations highly depends on the scenarios that have the highest probability to occur, for which the production plant locations still produce a competitive biodiesel cost and emissions from the transportation are minimum. In this study, one set of plant locations happened to meet these two requirements.
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| 8. |
- Santoro, Maurizio, et al.
(author)
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Estimates of Forest Growing Stock Volume for Sweden, Central Siberia, and Quebec Using Envisat Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar Backscatter Data
- 2013
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In: Remote Sensing. - : MDPI AG. - 2072-4292. ; 5:9, s. 4503-4532
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A study was undertaken to assess Envisat Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) ScanSAR data for quantifying forest growing stock volume (GSV) across three boreal regions with varying forest types, composition, and structure (Sweden, Central Siberia, and Quebec). Estimates of GSV were obtained using hyper-temporal observations of the radar backscatter acquired by Envisat ASAR with the BIOMASAR algorithm. In total, 5.310(6) km(2) were mapped with a 0.01 degrees pixel size to obtain estimates representative for the year of 2005. Comparing the SAR-based estimates to spatially explicit datasets of GSV, generated from forest field inventory and/or Earth Observation data, revealed similar spatial distributions of GSV. Nonetheless, the weak sensitivity of C-band backscatter to forest structural parameters introduced significant uncertainty to the estimated GSV at full resolution. Further discrepancies were observed in the case of different scales of the ASAR and the reference GSV and in areas of fragmented landscapes. Aggregation to 0.1 degrees and 0.5 degrees was then undertaken to generate coarse scale estimates of GSV. The agreement between ASAR and the reference GSV datasets improved; the relative difference at 0.5 degrees was consistently within a magnitude of 20-30%. The results indicate an improvement of the characterization of forest GSV in the boreal zone with respect to currently available information.
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