| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
-
Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
|
|
| 2. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
-
Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
|
|
| 3. |
|
|
| 4. |
- Ivanics, Tommy, et al.
(författare)
-
Outcomes after liver transplantation using deceased after circulatory death donors : A comparison of outcomes in the UK and the US
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Liver international. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 1478-3223 .- 1478-3231. ; 43:5, s. 1107-1119
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background and Aims: Identifying international differences in utilization and outcomes of liver transplantation (LT) after donation after circulatory death (DCD) donation provides a unique opportunity for benchmarking and population-level insight.Methods: Adult (>= 18 years) LT data between 2008 and 2018 from the UK and US were used to assess mortality and graft failure after DCD LT. We used time-dependent Cox-regression methods to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for risk-adjusted short-term (0-90 days) and longer-term (90 days-5 years) outcomes.Results: One-thousand five-hundred-and-sixty LT receipts from the UK and 3426 from the US were included. Over the study period, the use of DCD livers increased from 15.7% to 23.9% in the UK compared to 5.1% to 7.6% in the US. In the UK, DCD donors were older (UK:51 vs. US:33 years) with longer cold ischaemia time (UK: 437 vs. US: 333 min). Recipients in the US had higher Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores, higher body mass index, higher proportions of ascites, encephalopathy, diabetes and previous abdominal surgeries. No difference in the risk-adjusted short-term mortality or graft failure was observed between the countries. In the longer-term (90 days-5 years), the UK had lower mortality and graft failure (adj.mortality HR:UK: 0.63 (95% CI: 0.49-0.80); graft failure HR: UK: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.58-0.91). The cumulative incidence of retransplantation was higher in the UK (5 years: UK: 11.9% vs. 4.6%; p < .001).Conclusions: For those receiving a DCD LT, longer-term post-transplant outcomes in the UK are superior to the US, however, significant differences in recipient illness, graft quality and access to retransplantation were seen between the two countries.
|
|
| 5. |
- Mccafferty, Kieran, et al.
(författare)
-
HEROIC: a 5-year observational cohort study aimed at identifying novel factors that drive diabetic kidney disease: rationale and study protocol
- 2020
-
Ingår i: BMJ Open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055 .- 2044-6055. ; 10:9, s. e033923-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ. INTRODUCTION: Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is the leading cause of end-stage kidney disease worldwide and a major cause of premature mortality in diabetes mellitus (DM). While improvements in care have reduced the incidence of kidney disease among those with DM, the increasing prevalence of DM means that the number of patients worldwide with DKD is increasing. Improved understanding of the biology of DKD and identification of novel therapeutic targets may lead to new treatments. A major challenge to progress has been the heterogeneity of the DKD phenotype and renal progression. To investigate the heterogeneity of DKD we have set up The East and North London Diabetes Cohort (HEROIC) Study, a secondary care-based, multiethnic observational study of patients with biopsy-proven DKD. Our primary objective is to identify histological features of DKD associated with kidney endpoints in a cohort of patients diagnosed with type 1 and type 2 DM, proteinuria and kidney impairment. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: HEROIC is a longitudinal observational study that aims to recruit 500 patients with DKD at high-risk of renal and cardiovascular events. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data will be collected and assessed annually for 5 years. Renal biopsy tissue will be collected and archived at recruitment. Blood and urine samples will be collected at baseline and during annual follow-up visits. Measured glomerular filtration rate (GFR), echocardiography, retinal optical coherence tomography angiography and kidney and cardiac MRI will be performed at baseline and twice more during follow-up. The study is 90% powered to detect an association between key histological and imaging parameters and a composite of death, renal replacement therapy or a 30% decline in estimated GFR. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval has been obtained from the Bloomsbury Research Ethics Committee (REC 18-LO-1921). Any patient identifiable data will be stored on a password-protected National Health Services N3 network with full audit trail. Anonymised imaging data will be stored in a ISO27001-certificated data warehouse.Results will be reported through peer-reviewed manuscripts and conferences and disseminated to participants, patients and the public using web-based and social media engagement tools as well as through public events.
|
|
| 6. |
- Mehta, Neil K., et al.
(författare)
-
Age at Immigration, Generational Status, and Death Among Children of Immigrant Mothers : A Longitudinal Analysis of Siblings
- 2019
-
Ingår i: American Journal of Epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0002-9262 .- 1476-6256. ; 188:7, s. 1237-1244
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Studies have documented that age at immigration and generational status are important predictors of socioeconomic outcomes among children of immigrants. Whether these characteristics are related to long-term risk of death is unknown. Leveraging variation within sibships, we evaluated the association of age at immigration and generational status (i.e., first or second generation) with death among children of immigrant mothers to Sweden. Data included 272,429 individuals (126,701 sibships) aged 15 or more years from the total Swedish population followed between 1990 and 2009. Population-average and sibling fixed-effect regressions were estimated, with the latter controlling for unobserved factors shared by siblings. The foreign-born children of immigrants experienced a 17% higher risk of death than the Swedish-born children of immigrants. This excess risk was evident for external and nonexternal causes of death. In general, a graded association was not detected between age at immigration and death among the foreign-born individuals; however, those arriving during primary school ages appeared especially vulnerable. This study provides robust evidence that among children of immigrants, being foreign born was associated with a long-term death penalty compared with being born in the host country.
|
|
