| 1. |
- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
-
Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
-
Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
|
|
| 2. |
|
|
| 3. |
|
|
| 4. |
- Luu, TT, et al.
(författare)
-
Independent control of natural killer cell responsiveness and homeostasis at steady-state by CD11c+ dendritic cells
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Scientific reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 6, s. 37996-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- During infection and inflammation, dendritic cells (DC) provide priming signals for natural killer (NK) cells via mechanisms distinct from their antigen processing and presentation functions. The influence of DC on resting NK cells, i.e. at steady-state, is less well studied. We here demonstrate that as early as 1 day after DC depletion, NK cells in naïve mice downregulated the NKG2D receptor and showed decreased constitutive phosphorylation of AKT and mTOR. Subsequently, apoptotic NK cells appeared in the spleen concomitant with reduced NK cell numbers. At 4 days after the onset of DC depletion, increased NK cell proliferation was seen in the spleen resulting in an accumulation of Ly49 receptor-negative NK cells. In parallel, NK cell responsiveness to ITAM-mediated triggering and cytokine stimulation dropped across maturation stages, suggestive of a functional deficiency independent from the homeostatic effect. A role for IL-15 in maintaining NK cell function was supported by a gene signature analysis of NK cell from DC-depleted mice as well as by in vivo DC transfer experiments. We propose that DC, by means of IL-15 transpresentation, are required to maintain not only homeostasis, but also function, at steady-state. These processes appear to be regulated independently from each other.
|
|
| 5. |
|
|
| 6. |
- Luu, TT, et al.
(författare)
-
Short-term IL-15 priming leaves a long-lasting signalling imprint in mouse NK cells independently of a metabolic switch
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Life science alliance. - : Life Science Alliance, LLC. - 2575-1077. ; 4:4
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- IL-15 priming of NK cells is a broadly accepted concept, but the dynamics and underlying molecular mechanisms remain poorly understood. We show that as little as 5 min of IL-15 treatment in vitro, followed by removal of excess cytokines, results in a long-lasting, but reversible, augmentation of NK cell responsiveness upon activating receptor cross-linking. In contrast to long-term stimulation, improved NK cell function after short-term IL-15 priming was not associated with enhanced metabolism but was based on the increased steady-state phosphorylation level of signalling molecules downstream of activating receptors. Inhibition of JAK3 eliminated this priming effect, suggesting a cross talk between the IL-15 receptor and ITAM-dependent activating receptors. Increased signalling molecule phosphorylation levels, calcium flux, and IFN-γ secretion lasted for up to 3 h after IL-15 stimulation before returning to baseline. We conclude that IL-15 rapidly and reversibly primes NK cell function by modulating activating receptor signalling. Our findings suggest a mechanism by which NK cell reactivity can potentially be maintained in vivo based on only brief encounters with IL-15 trans-presenting cells.
|
|
| 7. |
|
|
| 8. |
- Pind, A. A. A., et al.
(författare)
-
Adjuvants Enhance the Induction of Germinal Center and Antibody Secreting Cells in Spleen and Their Persistence in Bone Marrow of Neonatal Mice
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Frontiers in Immunology. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 1664-3224. ; 10
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Immaturity of the immune system contributes to poor vaccine responses in early life. Germinal center (GC) activation is limited due to poorly developed follicular dendritic cells (FDC), causing generation of few antibody-secreting cells (ASCs) with limited survival and transient antibody responses. Herein, we compared the potential of five adjuvants, namely LT-K63, mmCT, MF59, IC31, and alum to overcome limitations of the neonatal immune system and to enhance and prolong responses of neonatal mice to a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine Pnc1-TT. The adjuvants LT-K63, mmCT, MF59, and IC31 significantly enhanced GC formation and FDC maturation in neonatal mice when co-administered with Pnc1-TT. This enhanced GC induction correlated with significantly enhanced vaccine-specific ASCs by LT-K63, mmCT, and MF59 in spleen 14 days after immunization. Furthermore, mmCT, MF59, and IC31 prolonged the induction of vaccine-specific ASCs in spleen and increased their persistence in bone marrow up to 9 weeks after immunization, as previously shown for LT-K63. Accordingly, serum Abs persisted above protective levels against pneumococcal bacteremia and pneumonia. In contrast, alum only enhanced the primary induction of vaccine-specific IgG Abs, which was transient. Our comparative study demonstrated that, in contrast to alum, LT-K63, mmCT, MF59, and IC31 can overcome limitations of the neonatal immune system and enhance both induction and persistence of protective immune response when administered with Pnc1-TT. These adjuvants are promising candidates for early life vaccination.
|
|
| 9. |
|
|
| 10. |
|
|
