| 1. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 2. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 3. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- 2016
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Ingår i: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
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| 4. |
- Crawley, Danielle J., et al.
(författare)
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Serum glucose and risk of cancer : a meta-analysis
- 2014
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Ingår i: BMC Cancer. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1471-2407 .- 1471-2407. ; 14
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Raised serum glucose has been linked to increased risk of many solid cancers. We performed a meta-analysis to quantify and summarise the evidence for this link. Methods: Pubmed and Embase were reviewed, using search terms representing serum glucose and cancer. Inclusion and exclusion criteria focused on epidemiological studies with clear definitions of serum glucose levels, cancer type, as well as well-described statistical methods with sufficient data available. We used 6.1 mmol/L as the cut-off for high glucose, consistent with the WHO definition of metabolic syndrome. Random effects analyses were performed to estimate the pooled relative risk (RR). Results: Nineteen studies were included in the primary analysis, which showed a pooled RR of 1.32 (95% CI: 1.20 - 1.45). Including only those individuals with fasting glucose measurements did not have a large effect on the pooled RR (1.32 (95% CI: 1.11-1.57). A stratified analysis showed a pooled RR of 1.34 (95% CI: 1.02-1.77) for hormonally driven cancer and 1.21 (95% CI: 1.09-1.36) for cancers thought to be driven by Insulin Growth Factor-1. Conclusion: A positive association between serum glucose and risk of cancer was found. The underlying biological mechanisms remain to be elucidated but our subgroup analyses suggest that the insulin- IGF-1 axis does not fully explain the association. These findings are of public health importance as measures to reduce serum glucose via lifestyle and dietary changes could be implemented in the context of cancer mortality.
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| 5. |
- Melvin, Jennifer C, et al.
(författare)
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An investigation into the relationship between Statins and Cancer using population-based data
- 2015
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Ingår i: BJU International. - : Wiley. - 1464-4096 .- 1464-410X. ; 116:5, s. 681-683
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Results to date for the association between use of statins and prostate cancer (PCa) death in observational studies are inconsistent. We investigated the application of causal inference methods, which aim to address observational data as if they were from a randomised clinical trial (RCT).MATERIAL AND METHODS: We examined the association between statins and PCa-death in 14,926 men in PCBaSe Sweden. We used inverse probability weighted (IPW) estimation of marginal structural models (MSM), as well incorporating truncated IPW in the presence of time-dependent confounders (TDC) (e.g., disease severity), affected by the exposure.RESULTS: The baseline adjusted odds ratio (OR) was 0.62 (95%CI: 0.51-0.75), which compared risk of PCa-death between men on statins and men not on statins. The calculated IPW for the MSM were highly variable, with the smallest weight at 0.0019 and the largest at 13,574, resulting in an OR of 0.89 (95%CI: 0.69-1.14). Truncating the weights improved variability, reducing the largest weight to 13.16. The truncated MSM OR was 0.86 (95%CI: 0.81-0.91).CONCLUSION: An association of statins and risk of PCa-death could not be reliably discerned, due to lack of data on essential confounders, namely serum cholesterol levels and disease severity. No observational studies on statin-use to date present information on serum cholesterol levels and disease severity in one setting, highlighting the need for careful interpretation of investigations into drugs in relation to diseases other than their intended purpose in observational settings.
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| 6. |
- Melvin, Jennifer C., et al.
(författare)
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Family history of breast cancer and its association with disease severity and mortality
- 2016
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Ingår i: Cancer Medicine. - : Wiley. - 2045-7634. ; 5:5, s. 942-949
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A family history (FH) of breast cancer (BC) is known to increase an individual's risk of disease onset. However, its role in disease severity and mortality is less clear. We aimed to ascertain associations between FH of BC, severity and BC-specific mortality in a hospital-based cohort of 5354 women with prospective information on FH. We included women diagnosed at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust between 1975 and 2012 (n = 5354). BC severity was defined and categorized as good, moderate, and poor prognosis. Data on BC-specific mortality was obtained from the National Cancer Registry and medical records. Associations between FH and disease severity or BC-specific mortality were evaluated using proportional odds models and Cox proportional hazard regression models, respectively. Available data allowed adjustment for potential confounders (e.g., treatment, socioeconomic status, and ethnicity). FH of any degree was not associated with disease severity at time of diagnosis (adjusted proportional OR: 1.00 [95% CI: 0.85 to 1.17]), which remained true also after stratification by period of diagnosis. FH of BC was not associated with BC-mortality HR: 0.99 (95% CI: 0.93 to 1.05). We did not find evidence to support an association between FH of BC and severity and BC-specific mortality. Our results indicate that clinical management should not differ between women with and without FH, when the underlying mutation is unknown.
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| 7. |
- Melvin, Jennifer C, et al.
(författare)
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Glucose and lipoprotein biomarkers and breast cancer severity using data from the Swedish AMORIS cohort
- 2017
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Ingår i: BMC Cancer. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1471-2407 .- 1471-2407. ; 17:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The lipid and glucose metabolisms are postulated as possible intermediary mechanisms in linking obesity and breast cancer (BC). Links between serum lipid and glucose biomarkers and BC risk has been observed in the Swedish Apolipoprotein MORtality RISk (AMORIS) cohort. We conducted a follow-up analysis including information on tumour characteristics.METHODS: One thousand eight hundred twenty-four women diagnosed with BC, with serum biomarker levels of glucose, triglycerides, cholesterol (total, HDL, and LDL), and apolipoproteins A-1 and B recorded in a routine health check at baseline were included. BC severity was split into categories (good, moderate, and poor prognosis) based on ER status, TNM stage, and age at diagnosis. Proportional odds models were used to obtain odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), with the interval time between baseline measurement and BC diagnosis accounted for.RESULTS: Serum glucose and the ApoB/ApoA-1 ratio showed a non-statistically significant positive association with BC severity (proportional OR: 1.25 (95%CI: 0.92-1.70) for glucose (CONCLUSIONS: Despite the size and detail of data in AMORIS, we only found a modest positive association between serum levels of glucose, apoB/ApoA-1 and BC severity, suggesting that these factors are not the main players in linking obesity and BC aggressiveness.
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| 8. |
- Melvin, Jennifer C., et al.
(författare)
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Lipid Profiles and Risk of Breast and Ovarian Cancer in the Swedish AMORIS Study
- 2012
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Ingår i: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers and Prevention. - 1055-9965 .- 1538-7755. ; 21:8, s. 1381-1384
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Obesity is a risk factor for breast and ovarian cancer; the mechanisms of action are not completely understood. Perturbed lipid metabolism often accompanies obesity; we therefore ascertained the associations between lipid components and breast and ovarian cancer risk in a prospective cohort study.Methods: A total of 234,494 women with baseline measurements of triglycerides and total cholesterol and glucose were selected from the AMORIS database.A total of 27,394 had measurements of high-density lipoprotein, low-density lipoprotein, apolipoprotein (Apo) B, and A-I. Associations between quartiles and dichotomized values of lipid components and breast and ovarian cancer risk were analyzed using Cox proportional hazard models.Results: We identified 6,105 women diagnosed with breast cancer and 808 women diagnosed with ovarian cancer. A weak trend was observed between triglycerides and breast cancer (HR, 1.01, 95% Confidence Interval, 0.94-1.09; 0.93 (0.86-1.00) 0.91 (0.84-0.99), second, third, and fourth quartiles; P = 0.01). No other associations between lipid components and risk of breast cancer or ovarian cancer showed statistical significance.Conclusions: A weak protective association was found between levels of triglycerides and risk of breast cancer.Impact: An analysis including information on tumour characteristics of ovarian cancer and breast cancer may provide more insight in possible links between lipid metabolism and the risk of these cancers.
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| 9. |
- Melvin, Jennifer C., et al.
(författare)
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Progression of breast cancer following locoregional ipsilateral recurrence : importance of interval time
- 2016
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Ingår i: British Journal of Cancer. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0007-0920 .- 1532-1827. ; 114:1, s. 88-95
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Studies comparing prognosis of breast cancer (BC) patients with and without locoregional recurrence (LR) present conflicting results. We aimed to improve our understanding of the impact of LR on prognosis by examining a large cohort of patients treated at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust. Methods: Risk factors associated with BC-specific death were investigated using Cox proportional hazards regression in 5199 women diagnosed between 1975 and 2007. Breast cancer-specific death following LR was assessed with Poisson regression. Results: Overall, 552 women (11%) developed LR, with a median follow-up time of 4.28 years. Known factors associated with BC-specific death (tumour stage, grade, and nodal status) were of significance in our data. Women with a shorter disease-free interval had a worse prognosis. For instance, the HR for BC-specific death among women undergoing mastectomy with an LR 0.5-1 year after diagnosis of their primary tumour was 6.67 (95% CI: 3.71-11.99), when compared with women who did not experience LR. Conclusions: It often remains difficult to distinguish between a genuine LR and a new primary. The HRs for risk of BC-specific death following a second lesion suggest that they may act as a marker of systemic disease, large tumour burden, or depleted host defence. The clinically highly relevant impairment in prognosis calls for further research into the underlying mechanisms. We showed that for at least 15 years of follow-up, the prognosis in women following the occurrence of an LR may benefit from careful diagnostic and therapeutic management.
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| 10. |
- Melvin, Jennifer C, et al.
(författare)
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Serum lipid profiles and cancer risk in the context of obesity : four meta-analyses.
- 2013
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Ingår i: Journal of Cancer Epidemiology. - : Hindawi Limited. - 1687-8558 .- 1687-8566. ; 2013, s. 823849-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The objective here was to summarize the evidence for, and quantify the link between, serum markers of lipid metabolism and risk of obesity-related cancers. PubMed and Embase were searched using predefined inclusion criteria to conduct meta-analyses on the association between serum levels of TG, TC, HDL, ApoA-I, and risk of 11 obesity-related cancers. Pooled relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals were estimated using random-effects analyses. 28 studies were included. Associations between abnormal lipid components and risk of obesity-related cancers when using clinical cutpoints (TC ≥ 6.50; TG ≥ 1.71; HDL ≤ 1.03; ApoA-I ≤ 1.05 mmol/L) were apparent in all models. RRs were 1.18 (95% CI: 1.08-1.29) for TC, 1.20 (1.07-1.35) for TG, 1.15 (1.01-1.32) for HDL, and 1.42 (1.17-1.74) for ApoA-I. High levels of TC and TG, as well as low levels of HDL and ApoA-I, were consistently associated with increased risk of obesity-related cancers. The modest RRs suggest serum lipids to be associated with the risk of cancer, but indicate it is likely that other markers of the metabolism and/or lifestyle factors may also be involved. Future intervention studies involving lifestyle modification would provide insight into the potential biological role of lipid metabolism in tumorigenesis.
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