| 1. |
- Forbes, Bruce C, et al.
(författare)
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High resilience in the Yamal-Nenets social–ecological system, West Siberian Arctic, Russia
- 2009
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 106:52, s. 22041-22048
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Tundra ecosystems are vulnerable to hydrocarbon development, in part because small-scale, low-intensity disturbances can affect vegetation, permafrost soils, and wildlife out of proportion to their spatial extent. Scaling up to include human residents, tightly integrated arctic social-ecological systems (SESs) are believed similarly susceptible to industrial impacts and climate change. In contrast to northern Alaska and Canada, most terrestrial and aquatic components of West Siberian oil and gas fields are seasonally exploited by migratory herders, hunters, fishers, and domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus L.). Despite anthropogenic fragmentation and transformation of a large proportion of the environment, recent socioeconomic upheaval, and pronounced climate warming, we find the Yamal-Nenets SES highly resilient according to a few key measures. We detail the remarkable extent to which the system has successfully reorganized in response to recent shocks and evaluate the limits of the system's capacity to respond. Our analytical approach combines quantitative methods with participant observation to understand the overall effects of rapid land use and climate change at the level of the entire Yamal system, detect thresholds crossed using surrogates, and identify potential traps. Institutional constraints and drivers were as important as the documented ecological changes. Particularly crucial to success is the unfettered movement of people and animals in space and time, which allows them to alternately avoid or exploit a wide range of natural and anthropogenic habitats. However, expansion of infrastructure, concomitant terrestrial and freshwater ecosystem degradation, climate change, and a massive influx of workers underway present a looming threat to future resilience.
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| 2. |
- Walker, Donald A., et al.
(författare)
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Cumulative Effects of Rapid Land-Cover and Land-Use Changes on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia
- 2011
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Ingår i: Eurasian Arctic Land Cover and Land Use in a Changing Climate. - New York : Springer Netherlands. - 9789048191178 - 9789048191185 ; , s. 207-236
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The Yamal Peninsula in northwest Siberia is undergoing some of the most rapid land-cover and land-use changes in the Arctic due to a combination of gas development, reindeer herding, and climate change. Unusual geological conditions (nutrient-poor sands, massive ground ice and extensive landslides) exacerbate the impacts. These changes will likely increase markedly as transportation corridors are built to transport the gas to market. Understanding the nature, extent, causes and consequences (i.e., the cumulative effects) of the past and ongoing rapid changes on the Yamal is important for effective, long-term decision-making and planning. The cumulative effects to vegetation are the focus of this chapter because the plants are a critical component of the Yamal landscape that support the indigenous Nenets people and their reindeer and also protect the underlying ice-rich permafrost from melting. We are using a combination of ground-based studies (a transect of live locations across the Yamal), remote-sensing studies, and analyses of Nenets land-use activities to develop vegetation-change models that can be used to help anticipate future states of the tundra and how those changes might affect traditional reindeer herding practices and the thermal state of the permafrost. This chapter provides an overview of the approach, some early results, and recommendations for expanding the concept of cumulative-effects analysis to include examining the simultaneous and interactive effects of multiple drivers of change.
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