| 1. |
- Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, et al.
(författare)
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Integrating Multiple Research Methods to Unravel the Complexity of Human-Water Systems
- 2021
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Ingår i: AGU Advances. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2576-604X. ; 2:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Predicting floods and droughts is essential to inform the development of policy in water management, climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Yet, hydrological predictions are highly uncertain, while the frequency, severity and spatial distribution of extreme events are further complicated by the increasing impact of human activities on the water cycle. In this commentary, we argue that four main aspects characterizing the complexity of human-water systems should be explicitly addressed: feedbacks, scales, tradeoffs and inequalities. We propose the integration of multiple research methods as a way to cope with complexity and develop policy-relevant science.Plain Language SummarySeveral governments today claim to be following the science in addressing crises caused by the occurrence of extreme events, such as floods and droughts, or the emergence of global threats, such as climate change and COVID-19. In this commentary, we show that there are no universal answers to apparently simple questions such as: Do levees reduce flood risk? Do reservoirs alleviate droughts? We argue that the best science we have consists of a plurality of legitimate interpretations and a range of foresights, which can be enriched by integrating multiple disciplines and research methods.
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| 2. |
- Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, et al.
(författare)
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Multiple hazards and risk perceptions over time : the availability heuristic in Italy and Sweden under COVID-19
- 2021
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Ingår i: Natural hazards and earth system sciences. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1561-8633 .- 1684-9981. ; 21:11, s. 3439-3447
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The severe impact of global crises, such as COVID-19 and climate change, is plausibly reshaping the way in which people perceive risks. In this paper, we examine and compare how global crises and local disasters influence public perceptions of multiple hazards in Italy and Sweden. To this end, we integrate information about the occurrence of hazardous events with the results of two nationwide surveys. These included more than 4000 participants and were conducted in two different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic corresponding to low (August 2020) and high (November 2020) levels of infection rates. We found that, in both countries, people are more worried about risks related to experienced events. This is in line with the cognitive process known as the availability heuristic: individuals assess the risk associated with a given hazard based on how easily it comes to their mind. Epidemics, for example, are perceived as less likely and more impactful in Italy compared to Sweden. This outcome can be explained by cross-country differences in the impact of, as well as governmental responses to, COVID-19. Notwithstanding the ongoing pandemic, people in both Italy and Sweden are highly concerned about climate change, and they rank it as the most likely threat.
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| 3. |
- Mondino, Elena, et al.
(författare)
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Public perceptions of multiple risks during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy and Sweden
- 2020
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Ingår i: Scientific Data. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2052-4463. ; 7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Knowing how people perceive multiple risks is essential to the management and promotion of public health and safety. Here we present a dataset based on a survey (N = 4,154) of public risk perception in Italy and Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic. Both countries were heavily affected by the first wave of infections in Spring 2020, but their governmental responses were very different. As such, the dataset offers unique opportunities to investigate the role of governmental responses in shaping public risk perception. In addition to epidemics, the survey considered indirect effects of COVID-19 (domestic violence, economic crises), as well as global (climate change) and local (wildfires, floods, droughts, earthquakes, terror attacks) threats. The survey examines perceived likelihoods and impacts, individual and authorities' preparedness and knowledge, and socio-demographic indicators. Hence, the resulting dataset has the potential to enable a plethora of analyses on social, cultural and institutional factors influencing the way in which people perceive risk.
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| 4. |
- Pignocchino, Gianmarco, et al.
(författare)
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Public risk perception of air pollution in the general population of Italy and Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic : Environmental and socio-demographic drivers
- 2023
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Ingår i: Preventive Medicine. - : Elsevier BV. - 0091-7435 .- 1096-0260. ; 173
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Air pollution is an important anthropogenic hazard due to its effect on human health and the environment. Understanding how the population perceives the risk associated with air pollution is a crucial aspect to inform future policies and communication strategies. The aim of this study is to examine the association between air pollution concentrations and public risk perception of air pollution, also exploring socio-demographic patterns in the general population of Italy and Sweden. To this end, we derived 3-year PM10 average concentrations from ground monitoring stations and integrated with a population-based survey carried out in August 2021 in both countries. Relative perceived likelihood and impact on the individual were considered as domains of risk perception. In addition this, information on direct experience and socio-demographic factors were included as possible determinants of risk perception. Linear regression models were performed to examine the association of PM10 average concentrations at regional level and individual level factors with risk perception domains. In both countries, respondents who live in the most densely populated regions report a higher perceived likelihood of air pollution. Direct experience is the main driver of risk perception in both countries. Being male and smokers in Italy, older age and having left/centre-left political orientation in both countries are associated with a higher perceived likelihood and impact of air pollution. These findings will inform future health and environmental studies regarding the public risk perception of air pollution highlighting individual's awareness and the sociodemographic patterns.
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| 5. |
- Raffetti, Elena, et al.
(författare)
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COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in Sweden and Italy : The role of trust in authorities
- 2022
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Ingår i: Scandinavian Journal of Public Health. - : Sage Publications. - 1403-4948 .- 1651-1905. ; 50:6, s. 803-809
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The success of vaccination campaigns against COVID-19 infection is vital for moving from a COVID-19 pandemic to an endemic scenario. We aimed to unravel the influence of the risk perception of epidemics along with individual and contextual factors on adherence to COVID-19 vaccination campaigns in Italy and Sweden.Methods: We compared the results of two nationwide surveys carried out in August 2021 across four domains of epidemic risk perception: perceived likelihood, perceived impact on the individual and perceived individual and authority knowledge. The roles of individual and contextual determinants were also explored.Results: The survey included 2144 participants in Sweden (52.3% women) and 2010 in Italy (52.6% women). In both countries, we found that trust in authorities was one of the main drivers of this process, with two-fold increased odds of being vaccinated. Being highly educated and having a higher relative income were associated with a higher adherence to the vaccination campaign (for relative income OR = 1.44, 95% CI 1.23–1.67 in Sweden and OR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.04–1.34 in Italy; for education OR = 1.90, 95% CI 1.30–2.77 in Sweden and OR = 1.47, 95% CI 1.09–1.97 in Italy), whereas a right and centre-right compared with a left and centre-left political orientation was negatively related to vaccination adherence (OR = 0.41, 95% CI 0.25–0.67 in Sweden and OR = 0.47, 95% CI 0.33–0.68 in Italy).Conclusions: Increasing trust in authorities, along with an equal global distribution of vaccine doses, can contribute to accelerating vaccination campaigns around the world and, in turn, to move towards an endemic scenario.
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| 6. |
- Raffetti, Elena, et al.
(författare)
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Epidemic risk perceptions in Italy and Sweden driven by authority responses to COVID-19
- 2022
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Ingår i: Scientific reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 12:1, s. 9291-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding public risk perception is an essential step to develop effective measures reducing the spread of disease outbreaks. Here we compare epidemic risk perceptions during two different periods of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy and Sweden. To this end, we analyzed the results of two nationwide surveys carried out in both countries in two periods characterized by different infection rates: August (N = 4154) and November 2020 (N = 4168). Seven domains of epidemic risk perception were considered: likelihood along with (individual and population) impact, preparedness, and knowledge. The role of the context and period was explored in stratified and formal interaction analyses. In both countries, we found an intensification in epidemic risk perception from August to November 2020. Being male, older and having a higher relative income were associated with a lower perception of the likelihood of epidemics, while excess mortality was marginally related to higher odds. Compared to Sweden, Italy had a higher increase in perception of likelihood and impact, and a concurrent decrease in preparedness and knowledge. The different authority response to the COVID-19 pandemic is associated with a different change over time in risk perception. Regional differences in terms of excess mortality only marginally explained differences in risk perception.
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| 7. |
- Ridolfi, Elena, et al.
(författare)
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Hydrological risk : modeling flood memory and human proximity to rivers
- 2021
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Ingår i: Hydrology Research. - : IWA Publishing. - 1998-9563 .- 2224-7955 .- 0029-1277. ; 52:1, s. 241-252
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent literature in sociohydrology has shown the important role of flood memory in shaping hydrological risk. In this paper, we present a system dynamics model of human–flood interactions that simulates how the river proximity of human settlements is altered by changes in flood memory. We also compare our model outcomes with an unprecedented dataset consisting of historical and archeological observations of human settlements in Czech Republic that have been affected by major flood events. This comparison allows us to evaluate the potentials and limitations of our sociohydrological model in capturing essential features of flood risk changes, including the process of resettling farther and closer to the river. Our results show that the accumulation (and decay) of collective memory has potential in explaining temporal changes of flood risk driven by the occurrence (or absence) of major events. As such, this study contributes to advancing knowledge about the complex dynamics of human–water systems, while providing useful insights in the field of flood risk reduction.
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| 8. |
- Bernello, Giacomo, et al.
(författare)
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People’s Perception of Nature-Based Solutions for Flood Mitigation : The Case of Veneto Region (Italy)
- 2022
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Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 14:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Floods have become more frequent due to a growing number of extreme rainfall events linked to climate change and increased urbanization. Additionally, 66% of the world’s population is expected to live in urban areas by 2050, making flood prevention and risk reduction increasingly important. Sustainability, resilience and ecosystem services are essential to increase human well-being in urban environments. Nature-based Solutions (NBS) can provide all the benefits of urban green spaces combined with flood mitigation. This work aims to provide useful information to promote the adoption of NBS to build communities resilient to climate change by exploring how people’s perception of and willingness to implement some NBS. To this end, an online survey was conducted to investigate the knowledge and the perception of NBS and grey infrastructures among people in Veneto, a north-Eastern region of Italy. Data analysis revealed a significant correlation between previous knowledge of water management systems and the perceived effectiveness of some NBS. Behaviors linked to the level of connection with the territory have also been found to influence the perceived effectiveness of NBS. This study provides insights into the dynamics behind the implementation of NBS to reduce the risk of urban flooding and can help policymakers adapt urban plans to promote the adoption of NBS.
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| 9. |
- Brelsford, Christa, et al.
(författare)
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Developing a sustainability science approach for water systems
- 2020
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Ingår i: Ecology & Society. - 1708-3087. ; 25:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We convened a workshop to enable scientists who study water systems from both social science and physical science perspectives to develop a shared language. This shared language is necessary to bridge a divide between these disciplines’ different conceptual frameworks. As a result of this workshop, we argue that we should view socio-hydrological systems as structurally co-constituted of social, engineered, and natural elements and study the “characteristic management challenges” that emerge from this structure and reoccur across time, space, and socioeconomic contexts. This approach is in contrast to theories that view these systems as separately conceptualized natural and social domains connected by bi-directional feedbacks, as is prevalent in much of the water systems research arising from the physical sciences. A focus on emergent characteristic management challenges encourages us to go beyond searching for evidence of feedbacks and instead ask questions such as: What types of innovations have successfully been used to address these challenges? What structural components of the system affect its resilience to hydrological events and through what mechanisms? Are there differences between successful and unsuccessful strategies to solve one of the characteristic management challenges? If so, how are these differences affected by institutional structure and ecological and economic contexts? To answer these questions, social processes must now take center stage in the study and practice of water management. We also argue that water systems are an important class of coupled systems with relevance for sustainability science because they are particularly amenable to the kinds of systematic comparisons that allow knowledge to accumulate. Indeed, the characteristic management challenges we identify are few in number and recur over most of human history and in most geographical locations. This recurrence should allow us to accumulate knowledge to answer the above questions by studying the long historical record of institutional innovations to manage water systems.
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| 10. |
- Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, et al.
(författare)
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Hess Opinions : An interdisciplinary research agenda to explore the unintended consequences of structural flood protection
- 2018
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Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. - : COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH. - 1027-5606 .- 1607-7938. ; 22:11, s. 5629-5637
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- One common approach to cope with floods is the implementation of structural flood protection measures, such as levees or flood-control reservoirs, which substantially reduce the probability of flooding at the time of implementation. Numerous scholars have problematized this approach. They have shown that increasing the levels of flood protection can attract more settlements and high-value assets in the areas protected by the new measures. Other studies have explored how structural measures can generate a sense of complacency, which can act to reduce preparedness. These paradoxical risk changes have been described as "levee effect", "safe development paradox" or "safety dilemma". In this commentary, we briefly review this phenomenon by critically analysing the intended benefits and unintended effects of structural flood protection, and then we propose an interdisciplinary research agenda to uncover these paradoxical dynamics of risk.
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