| 1. |
- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
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World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-109X. ; 7:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 2. |
- Pennells, Lisa, et al.
(författare)
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Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration : individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies
- 2019
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 40:7, s. 621-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.
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| 3. |
- Di Angelantonio, E., et al.
(författare)
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Glycated Hemoglobin Measurement and Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease
- 2014
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Ingår i: Jama-Journal of the American Medical Association. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 0098-7484 .- 1538-3598. ; 311:12, s. 1225-1233
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- IMPORTANCE The value of measuring levels of glycated hemoglobin (HbA(1c)) for the prediction of first cardiovascular events is uncertain. OBJECTIVE To determine whether adding information on HbA(1c) values to conventional cardiovascular risk factors is associated with improvement in prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Analysis of individual-participant data available from 73 prospective studies involving 294 998 participants without a known history of diabetes mellitus or CVD at the baseline assessment. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Measures of risk discrimination for CVD outcomes (eg, C-index) and reclassification (eg, net reclassification improvement) of participants across predicted 10-year risk categories of low (<5%), intermediate (5% to <7.5%), and high (>= 7.5%) risk. RESULTS During a median follow-up of 9.9 (interquartile range, 7.6-13.2) years, 20 840 incident fatal and nonfatal CVD outcomes (13 237 coronary heart disease and 7603 stroke outcomes) were recorded. In analyses adjusted for several conventional cardiovascular risk factors, there was an approximately J-shaped association between HbA(1c) values and CVD risk. The association between HbA(1c) values and CVD risk changed only slightly after adjustment for total cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations or estimated glomerular filtration rate, but this association attenuated somewhat after adjustment for concentrations of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and C-reactive protein. The C-index for a CVD risk prediction model containing conventional cardiovascular risk factors alone was 0.7434 (95% CI, 0.7350 to 0.7517). The addition of information on HbA(1c) was associated with a C-index change of 0.0018 (0.0003 to 0.0033) and a net reclassification improvement of 0.42 (-0.63 to 1.48) for the categories of predicted 10-year CVD risk. The improvement provided by HbA(1c) assessment in prediction of CVD risk was equal to or better than estimated improvements for measurement of fasting, random, or postload plasma glucose levels. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In a study of individuals without known CVD or diabetes, additional assessment of HbA(1c) values in the context of CVD risk assessment provided little incremental benefit for prediction of CVD risk.
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| 4. |
- Hageman, S., et al.
(författare)
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SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe
- 2021
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 42:25, s. 2439-2454
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe. Methods and results We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low- risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries. Conclusion SCORE2-a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations-enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.
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| 5. |
- Haraldstad, K, et al.
(författare)
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A systematic review of quality of life research in medicine and health sciences.
- 2019
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Ingår i: Quality of life research : an international journal of quality of life aspects of treatment, care and rehabilitation. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1573-2649. ; 28:10, s. 2641-1650
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Quality of life (QOL) is an important concept in the field of health and medicine. QOL is a complex concept that is interpreted and defined differently within and between disciplines, including the fields of health and medicine. The aims of this study were to systematically review the literature on QOL in medicine and health research and to describe the country of origin, target groups, instruments, design, and conceptual issues.A systematic review was conducted to identify research studies on QOL and health-related quality of life (HRQOL). The databases Scopus, which includes Embase and MEDLINE, CINAHL, and PsycINFO were searched for articles published during one random week in November 2016. The ten predefined criteria of Gill and Feinstein were used to evaluate the conceptual and methodological rigor.QOL research is international and involves a variety of target groups, research designs, and QOL measures. According to the criteria of Gill and Feinstein, the results show that only 13% provided a definition of QOL, 6% distinguished QOL from HRQOL. The most frequently fulfilled criteria were: (i) stating the domains of QOL to be measured; (ii) giving a reason for choosing the instruments used; and (iii) aggregating the results from multiple items.QOL is an important endpoint in medical and health research, and QOL research involves a variety of patient groups and different research designs. Based on the current evaluation of the methodological and conceptual clarity of QOL research, we conclude that the majority QOL studies in health and medicine have conceptual and methodological challenges.
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| 6. |
- Aries, Myriam, et al.
(författare)
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Particulate matter and the health effects on human living lung cells
- 2009
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Ingår i: 9th International Conference and Exhibition - Healthy Buildings 2009, HB 2009.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Predominant sources of personal particulate matter exposure are residential indoor and road-traffic or soil-borne outdoor respirable particles. Candles are an important source of indoor particulate matter. Therefore a pilot study was conducted in a specially built research facility for a fixed period of time. Fine and ultrafine particle concentrations were continuously sampled and the likelihood for potential health effects was studied using the CULTEX® system in which human lung cells were directly exposed to air samples. A high concentration of ultrafine particles was registered during the candle burning; a control condition recorded a much lower concentration and larger particle diameters. First results indicate that unhealthy situations due to candle burning in the indoor environment are very well possible.
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| 7. |
- De Jong, VMT, et al.
(författare)
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Clinical prediction models for mortality in patients with covid-19: external validation and individual participant data meta-analysis
- 2022
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Ingår i: BMJ (Clinical research ed.). - : BMJ. - 1756-1833. ; 378, s. e069881-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- ObjectiveTo externally validate various prognostic models and scoring rules for predicting short term mortality in patients admitted to hospital for covid-19.DesignTwo stage individual participant data meta-analysis.SettingSecondary and tertiary care.Participants46 914 patients across 18 countries, admitted to a hospital with polymerase chain reaction confirmed covid-19 from November 2019 to April 2021.Data sourcesMultiple (clustered) cohorts in Brazil, Belgium, China, Czech Republic, Egypt, France, Iran, Israel, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Portugal, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, and United States previously identified by a living systematic review of covid-19 prediction models published inThe BMJ, and through PROSPERO, reference checking, and expert knowledge.Model selection and eligibility criteriaPrognostic models identified by the living systematic review and through contacting experts. A priori models were excluded that had a high risk of bias in the participant domain of PROBAST (prediction model study risk of bias assessment tool) or for which the applicability was deemed poor.MethodsEight prognostic models with diverse predictors were identified and validated. A two stage individual participant data meta-analysis was performed of the estimated model concordance (C) statistic, calibration slope, calibration-in-the-large, and observed to expected ratio (O:E) across the included clusters.Main outcome measures30 day mortality or in-hospital mortality.ResultsDatasets included 27 clusters from 18 different countries and contained data on 46 914patients. The pooled estimates ranged from 0.67 to 0.80 (C statistic), 0.22 to 1.22 (calibration slope), and 0.18 to 2.59 (O:E ratio) and were prone to substantial between study heterogeneity. The 4C Mortality Score by Knight et al (pooled C statistic 0.80, 95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.84, 95% prediction interval 0.72 to 0.86) and clinical model by Wang et al (0.77, 0.73 to 0.80, 0.63 to 0.87) had the highest discriminative ability. On average, 29% fewer deaths were observed than predicted by the 4C Mortality Score (pooled O:E 0.71, 95% confidence interval 0.45 to 1.11, 95% prediction interval 0.21 to 2.39), 35% fewer than predicted by the Wang clinical model (0.65, 0.52 to 0.82, 0.23 to 1.89), and 4% fewer than predicted by Xie et al’s model (0.96, 0.59 to 1.55, 0.21 to 4.28).ConclusionThe prognostic value of the included models varied greatly between the data sources. Although the Knight 4C Mortality Score and Wang clinical model appeared most promising, recalibration (intercept and slope updates) is needed before implementation in routine care.
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| 8. |
- Lu, C. W., et al.
(författare)
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Heart Failure and Patient-Reported Outcomes in Adults With Congenital Heart Disease from 15 Countries
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of the American Heart Association. - : Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health). - 2047-9980. ; 11:9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) is the leading cause of mortality and associated with significant morbidity in adults with congenital heart disease. We sought to assess the association between HF and patient-report outcomes in adults with congenital heart disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: As part of the APPROACH-IS (Assessment of Patterns of Patient-Reported Outcomes in Adults with Congenital Heart disease-International Study), we collected data on HF status and patient-reported outcomes in 3959 patients from 15 countries across 5 continents. Patient-report outcomes were: perceived health status (12-item Short Form Health Survey), quality of life (Linear Analogue Scale and Satisfaction with Life Scale), sense of coherence-13, psychological distress (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale), and illness perception (Brief Illness Perception Questionnaire). In this sample, 137 (3.5%) had HF at the time of investigation, 298 (7.5%) had a history of HF, and 3524 (89.0%) had no current or past episode of HF. Patients with current or past HF were older and had a higher prevalence of complex congenital heart disease, arrhythmias, implantable cardioverter-defibrillators, other clinical comorbidities, and mood disorders than those who never had HF. Patients with HF had worse physical functioning, mental functioning, quality of life, satisfaction with life, sense of coherence, depressive symptoms, and illness perception scores. Magnitudes of differences were large for physical functioning and illness perception and moderate for mental functioning, quality of life, and depressive symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: HF in adults with congenital heart disease is associated with poorer patient-reported outcomes, with large effect sizes for physical functioning and illness perception.
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| 9. |
- van Dessel, L., et al.
(författare)
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Pulmonary Hemodynamics and Outcome in a Large Cohort of Patients with Sinus Venosus Septal Defect
- 2020
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Ingår i: Congenital Heart Disease. - : Computers, Materials and Continua (Tech Science Press). - 1747-079X. ; 15:2, s. 69-78
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Left-to-right shunt in sinus venosus septal defect (SVSD) may affect resistive (pulmonary vascular resistance-PVR) and elastic (pulmonary artery compliance-PAC) pulmonary artery properties. This study aimed at evaluating (1) impact of age, (2) pulmonary hemodynamics, and (3) outcome in a large cohort of SVSD patients. Methods: This study included 136 patients with SVSD (median age at diagnosis 14 (IQR 5-48) years, 47% male) of which 87 underwent catheterization. Pressures were measured and cardiac output was evaluated using the Fick principle at diagnosis. PVR, PAC and their product (RC time) were calculated. Results: Surgical repair was performed in 128 (94%) at a median age of 13 (IQR 5- 43) years. During a median follow-up time of 31 (IQR 17-55) years, 12 (9%) patients died, 13 (10%) developed heart failure, 4 (3%) Eisenmenger syndrome, 19 (14%) atrial arrhythmia, 6 (4%) sick sinus syndrome and 7 (5%) required pacemaker implantation In those who underwent catheterization, median shunt ratio was 2.5 (IQR 2.0-2.9). Thirty (34%) had mean PA pressure >= 25 mmHg. PVR indexed, PAC indexed, and RC time was 3.5 (IQR 2.4-7.5) WU.m(2) , 1.8 (IQR 1.3-2.5) mL/mmHg.m(2) and 0.39 (0.26-0.53) sec with an inverse hyperbolic relationship between PVR and PAC. Mean PA pressure (P < 0.0001); wedge pressure (P = 0.001), PVR indexed (P = 0.002) and PAC indexed (P = 0.002) changed significantly with age at diagnosis, but shunt ratio did not. Conclusion: SVSD has good long-term outcome, albeit with late morbidities. Thirty-four percent has mean PA pressure >= 25 mmHg, but Eisenmenger syndrome is rare (3%). PVR and PAC are inversely related and change significantly with older age.
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| 10. |
- Dieterich, L. C., et al.
(författare)
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alphaB-Crystallin regulates expansion of CD11b(+)Gr-1(+) immature myeloid cells during tumor progression
- 2013
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Ingår i: The FASEB Journal. - : FASEB. - 0892-6638 .- 1530-6860. ; 27:1, s. 151-62
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The molecular chaperone alphaB-crystallin has emerged as a target for cancer therapy due to its expression in human tumors and its role in regulating tumor angiogenesis. alphaB-crystallin also reduces neuroinflammation, but its role in other inflammatory conditions has not been investigated. Here, we examined whether alphaB-crystallin regulates inflammation associated with tumors and ischemia. We found that CD45(+) leukocyte infiltration is 3-fold increased in tumors and ischemic myocardium in alphaB-crystallin-deficient mice. Notably, alphaB-crystallin is prominently expressed in CD11b(+) Gr-1(+) immature myeloid cells (IMCs), known as regulators of angiogenesis and immune responses, while lymphocytes and mature granulocytes show low alphaB-crystallin expression. alphaB-Crystallin deficiency results in a 3-fold higher accumulation of CD11b(+) Gr-1(+) IMCs in tumors and a significant rise in CD11b(+) Gr-1(+) IMCs in spleen and bone marrow. Similarly, we noted a 2-fold increase in CD11b(+) Gr-1(+) IMCs in chronically inflamed livers in alphaB-crystallin-deficient mice. The effect of alphaB-crystallin on IMC accumulation is limited to pathological conditions, as CD11b(+) Gr-1(+) IMCs are not elevated in naive mice. Through ex vivo differentiation of CD11b(+) Gr-1(+) cells, we provide evidence that alphaB-crystallin regulates systemic expansion of IMCs through a cell-intrinsic mechanism. Our study suggests a key role of alphaB-crystallin in limiting expansion of CD11b(+) Gr-1(+) IMCs in diverse pathological conditions.
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