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- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- de Graaff, Anne M., et al.
(författare)
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Scalable psychological interventions for Syrian refugees in Europe and the Middle East : STRENGTHS study protocol for a prospective individual participant data meta-analysis
- 2022
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Ingår i: BMJ Open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055. ; 12:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction The World Health Organization's (WHO) scalable psychological interventions, such as Problem Management Plus (PM+) and Step-by-Step (SbS) are designed to be cost-effective non-specialist delivered interventions to reduce symptoms of common mental disorders, such as anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The STRENGTHS consortium aims to evaluate the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and implementation of the individual format of PM+ and its group version (gPM+), as well as of the digital SbS intervention among Syrian refugees in seven countries in Europe and the Middle East. This is a study protocol for a prospective individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis to evaluate (1) overall effectiveness and cost-effectiveness and (2) treatment moderators of PM+, gPM+ and SbS with Syrian refugees. Methods and analysis Five pilot randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and seven fully powered RCTs conducted within STRENGTHS will be combined into one IPD meta-analytic dataset. The RCTs include Syrian refugees of 18 years and above with elevated psychological distress (Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K10>15)) and impaired daily functioning (WHO Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 (WHODAS 2.0>16)). Participants are randomised into the intervention or care as usual control group, and complete follow-up assessments at 1-week, 3-month and 12-month follow-up. Primary outcomes are symptoms of depression and anxiety (25-item Hopkins Symptom Checklist). Secondary outcomes include daily functioning (WHODAS 2.0), PTSD symptoms (PTSD Checklist for DSM-5) and self-identified problems (PSYCHLOPS). We will conduct a one-stage IPD meta-analysis using linear mixed models. Quality of evidence will be assessed using the GRADE approach, and the economic evaluation approach will be assessed using the CHEC-list. Ethics and dissemination Local ethical approval has been obtained for each RCT. This IPD meta-analysis does not require ethical approval. The results of this study will be published in international peer-reviewed journals.
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| 4. |
- Kiselev, N., et al.
(författare)
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Barriers to access to outpatient mental health care for refugees and asylum seekers in Switzerland : The therapist’s view
- 2020
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Ingår i: BMC Psychiatry. - : BioMed Central Ltd. - 1471-244X. ; 20:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: More than 120,000 refugees and asylum seekers are currently living in Switzerland. The prevalence of mental disorders among this population is significantly higher than that in the general population. While effective treatment options and cross-cultural, specialized treatment centers exist, they tend to be overloaded by their target populations. General outpatient primary health care providers might be able to compensate for the lack of specialized treatment slots. To date, however, it is unknown how often and under what conditions (e.g., length of waiting lists) refugees and asylum seekers are treated outside of specialized centers and whether there are barriers that prevent providers in outpatient settings from treating more patients in this subgroup. The present study aimed to assess the challenges and barriers faced by psychiatrists and psychotherapists working in outpatient settings in Switzerland in treating refugees and asylum seekers to determine the potential capacity of this group to provide mental health care. Methods: An online survey was conducted during the winter of 2017/2018. The survey was constructed in three official languages and took 10-15 min to complete. Spearman’s correlations, Mann-Whitney U-Tests, and Chi-squared tests were conducted to analyze the data. Results: Eight hundred and sixty-seven (N = 867) psychotherapists and psychiatrists working in outpatient settings completed the survey: 43% of them reported having treated between 1 and 9 refugees or asylum seekers in the past 12 months, and a further 13% reported treating 10 or more. Interpreters were used for almost every other patient with a refugee or asylum-seeker background. At the same time, the funding of interpreters, as well as the funding of treatment in general, were reported to be the biggest hurdles to treating more refugees and asylum seekers. Conclusions: Given the low number of patients rejected for capacity reasons (between 2 and 5%) and the median waiting times for the admission of new patients ranging between 2 and 3 weeks, outpatient primary mental health care providers might treat more refugees and asylum seekers and relieve specialized treatment centers. However, barriers such as lack of funding of interpreters seem to hinder them. Appropriate steps by the authorities are needed to improve the current situation. © 2020 The Author(s).
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| 5. |
- Masetti, M, et al.
(författare)
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Lipid-loaded tumor-associated macrophages sustain tumor growth and invasiveness in prostate cancer
- 2021
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Ingår i: The Journal of experimental medicine. - : Rockefeller University Press. - 1540-9538 .- 0022-1007. ; 219:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) are correlated with the progression of prostatic adenocarcinoma (PCa). The mechanistic basis of this correlation and therapeutic strategies to target TAMs in PCa remain poorly defined. Here, single-cell RNA sequencing was used to profile the transcriptional landscape of TAMs in human PCa, leading to identification of a subset of macrophages characterized by dysregulation in transcriptional pathways associated with lipid metabolism. This subset of TAMs correlates positively with PCa progression and shorter disease-free survival and is characterized by an accumulation of lipids that is dependent on Marco. Mechanistically, cancer cell–derived IL-1β enhances Marco expression on macrophages, and reciprocally, cancer cell migration is promoted by CCL6 released by lipid-loaded TAMs. Moreover, administration of a high-fat diet to tumor-bearing mice raises the abundance of lipid-loaded TAMs. Finally, targeting lipid accumulation by Marco blockade hinders tumor growth and invasiveness and improves the efficacy of chemotherapy in models of PCa, pointing to combinatorial strategies that may influence patient outcomes.
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| 6. |
- Sijbrandij, M., et al.
(författare)
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Strengthening mental health care systems for Syrian refugees in Europe and the Middle East : integrating scalable psychological interventions in eight countries
- 2017
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Ingår i: European Journal of Psychotraumatology. - : Taylor and Francis Ltd.. - 2000-8198 .- 2000-8066. ; 8:sup2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The crisis in Syria has resulted in vast numbers of refugees seeking asylum in Syria’s neighbouring countries as well as in Europe. Refugees are at considerable risk of developing common mental disorders, including depression, anxiety, and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Most refugees do not have access to mental health services for these problems because of multiple barriers in national and refugee specific health systems, including limited availability of mental health professionals. To counter some of challenges arising from limited mental health system capacity the World Health Organization (WHO) has developed a range of scalable psychological interventions aimed at reducing psychological distress and improving functioning in people living in communities affected by adversity. These interventions, including Problem Management Plus (PM+) and its variants, are intended to be delivered through individual or group face-to-face or smartphone formats by lay, non-professional people who have not received specialized mental health training, We provide an evidence-based rationale for the use of the scalable PM+ oriented programmes being adapted for Syrian refugees and provide information on the newly launched STRENGTHS programme for adapting, testing and scaling up of PM+ in various modalities in both neighbouring and European countries hosting Syrian refugees. © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
- Spiller, T. R., et al.
(författare)
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Emotional Reactivity, Emotion Regulation Capacity, and Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in Traumatized Refugees : An Experimental Investigation
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Traumatic Stress. - : John Wiley and Sons Inc.. - 0894-9867 .- 1573-6598. ; 32:1, s. 32-41
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Refugees who suffer from posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) often react with strong emotions when confronted with trauma reminders. In this study, we aimed to investigate the associations between low emotion regulation capacity (as indexed by low heart rate variability [HRV]), probable PTSD diagnosis, and fear and anger reaction and recovery to trauma-related stimuli. Participants were 81 trauma-exposed refugees (probable PTSD, n = 23; trauma-exposed controls, n = 58). The experiment comprised three 5-min phases: a resting phase (baseline); an exposition phase, during which participants were exposed to trauma-related images (stimulus); and another resting phase (recovery). We assessed HRV at baseline, and fear and anger were rated at the end of each phase. Linear mixed model analyses were used to investigate the associations between baseline HRV and probable DSM-5 PTSD diagnosis in influencing anger and fear responses both immediately after viewing trauma-related stimuli and at the end of the recovery phase. Compared to controls, participants with probable PTSD showed a greater increase in fear from baseline to stimulus presentation, d = 0.606. Compared to participants with low emotion regulation capacity, participants with high emotion regulation capacity showed a smaller reduction in anger from stimulus presentation to recovery, d = 0.548. Our findings indicated that following exposure to trauma-related stimuli, probable PTSD diagnosis predicted increased fear reactivity, and low emotion regulation capacity predicted decreased anger recovery. Impaired anger recovery following trauma reminders in the context of low emotion regulation capacity might contribute to the increased levels of anger found in postconflict samples. © 2019 International Society for Traumatic Stress Studies
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