| 1. |
- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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| 2. |
- Jaworski, G., et al.
(författare)
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The New Neutron Multiplicity Filter NEDA and Its First Physics Campaign with AGATA
- 2019
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Ingår i: Acta Physica Polonica B. - 0587-4254 .- 1509-5770. ; 50:3, s. 585-590
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A new neutron multiplicity filter NEDA, after a decade of design, R&D and construction, was employed in its first physics campaign with the AGATA spectrometer. Properties and performance of the array are discussed.
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| 3. |
- Valiente-Dobon, J. J., et al.
(författare)
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NEDA-NEutron Detector Array
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research Section A. - : Elsevier BV. - 0168-9002 .- 1872-9576. ; 927, s. 81-86
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The NEutron Detector Array, NEDA, will form the next generation neutron detection system that has been designed to be operated in conjunction with gamma-ray arrays, such as the tracking-array AGATA, to aid nuclear spectroscopy studies. NEDA has been designed to be a versatile device, with high-detection efficiency, excellent neutron-gamma discrimination, and high rate capabilities. It will be employed in physics campaigns in order to maximise the scientific output, making use of the different stable and radioactive ion beams available in Europe. The first implementation of the neutron detector array NEDA with AGATA 1 pi was realised at GANIL. This manuscript reviews the various aspects of NEDA.
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| 4. |
- Fahlander, Claes, et al.
(författare)
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Excited States in 103Sn: Neutron Single-particle Energies with Respect to 100Sn
- 2001
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Ingår i: Physical Review C (Nuclear Physics). - 0556-2813 .- 1089-490X. ; 63:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Gamma-ray lines from Sn-103 have been identified for the first time using EUROBALL and ancillary detectors. The level scheme of Sn-103 has been established by means of particle-gated gamma gamma coincidences. The energy spacing between the g(7/2) and d(5/2) neutron single-particle orbitals is determined from the excited states in Sn-103.
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| 5. |
- Gadea, A., et al.
(författare)
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Observation of Ni-54 : Cross-conjugate symmetry in f(7/2) mirror energy differences
- 2006
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Ingår i: Physical Review Letters. - 0031-9007 .- 1079-7114. ; 97:15, s. 152501-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Gamma decays from excited states up to J(pi)=6(+) in the N=Z-2 nucleus Ni-54 have been identified for the first time. Level energies are compared with those of the isobars Co-54 and Fe-54 and of the cross-conjugate nuclei of mass A=42. The good but puzzling f(7/2) cross-conjugate symmetry in mirror and triplet energy differences is analyzed. Shell model calculations reproduce the new data but the necessary nuclear charge-dependent phenomenology is not fully explained by modern nucleon-nucleon potentials.
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| 6. |
- Palacz, M., et al.
(författare)
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Investigations of Neutron Deficient Nuclei Close to 100Sn with EUROBALL
- 2001
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Ingår i: Acta Physica Polonica. Series B: Elementary Particle Physics, Nuclear Physics, Statistical Physics, Theory of Relativity, Field Theory. - 0587-4254 .- 1509-5770. ; 32, s. 999-1003
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Excited states of nuclei in the vicinity of Sn-100 have been studied using: the EUROBALL detector array. Gamma-ray lines from Sn-103 have been identified for the first time, and a level scheme of low-lying excited states of Sn-103 has been established. New constraints on energies of single particle orbitals with respect to the Sn-100 core are obtained.
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| 7. |
- Sohler, D, et al.
(författare)
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Maximally Aligned States in the Proton Drip Line Nucleus 106Sb
- 2005
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Ingår i: Nuclear Physics, Section A. - : Elsevier BV. - 0375-9474 .- 1873-1554. ; 753:3-4, s. 251-262
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- High-spin states in Sb-106 have been investigated in the Fe-54(Ni-58, 1α 1p1n) reaction by in-beam γ-spectroscopic methods using the EUROBALL detector array equipped with charged particle and neutron detectors. On the basis of measured γγ-coincidence relations, angular distributions, and linear polarization ratios a significantly extended level scheme has been constructed up to spin and parity I-π = (19(-)) and E-x ∼ 6.5 MeV. The experimental results are interpreted within the framework of the gdsh shell model using a realistic effective nucleon-nucleon interaction. Candidates for states with fully aligned angular momenta in the π(d(5/2), g(7/2))(1) v (d(5/2), g(7/2))(5) valence space are identified at 4338 and 5203 keV, as well as in the π(d(5/2), g(7/2))(1) V(d(5/2), g(7/2))(4)h(11/2)(1) space at 6087, 6573 and 6783 keV.
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| 8. |
- Egea Canet, F. J., et al.
(författare)
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A New Front-End High-Resolution Sampling Board for the New-Generation Electronics of EXOGAM2 and NEDA Detectors
- 2015
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Ingår i: IEEE Transactions on Nuclear Science. - 0018-9499 .- 1558-1578. ; 62:3, s. 1056-1062
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents the final design and results of the FADC Mezzanine for the EXOGAM (EXOtic GAMma array spectrometer) and NEDA (Neutron Detector Array) detectors. The measurements performed include those of studying the effective number of bits, the energy resolution using HP-Ge detectors, as well as timing histograms and discrimination performance. Finally, the conclusion shows how a common digitizing device has been integrated in the experimental environment of two very different detectors which combine both low-noise acquisition and fast sampling rates. Not only the integration fulfilled the expected specifications on both systems, but it also showed how a study of synergy between detectors could lead to the reduction of resources and time by applying a common strategy.
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| 9. |
- Egea Canet, F. J., et al.
(författare)
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Digital Front-End Electronics for the Neutron Detector NEDA
- 2015
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Ingår i: IEEE Transactions on Nuclear Science. - 0018-9499 .- 1558-1578. ; 62:3, s. 1063-1069
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents the design of the NEDA (Neutron Detector Array) electronics, a first attempt to involve the use of digital electronics in large neutron detector arrays. Starting from the front-end modules attached to the PMTs (PhotoMultiplier Tubes) and ending up with the data processing workstations, a comprehensive electronic system capable of dealing with the acquisition and pre-processing of the neutron array is detailed. Among the electronic modules required, we emphasize the front-end analog processing, the digitalization, digital pre-processing and communications firmware, as well as the integration of the GTS (Global Trigger and Synchronization) system, already used successfully in AGATA (Advanced Gamma Tracking Array). The NEDA array will be available for measurements in 2016.
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| 10. |
- Sohler, D, et al.
(författare)
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Neutron Excitations Across the N=50 Shell Gap in 102In
- 2002
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Ingår i: Nuclear Physics, Section A. - : Elsevier. - 0375-9474 .- 1873-1554. ; 708:3-4, s. 181-189
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The structure of In-102 has been investigated by in-beam gamma-spectroscopic methods. Knowledge on the excited states of this nucleus has significantly been extended. Three cascades of transitions were observed to exceed the spin-energy domain spanned by the pig(9/2)(-1)v(d(5/2),g(7/2))(3) configurations. The new high spin states at similar to 4 MeV excitation energy could be assigned to the pig(9/2)(-1)v(d(5/2), g(7/2))(2)h (11/2) configuration, while at least those at 4.733, 5.192 and 5.853 MeV most likely arise from the vg(9/2) --> vd(5/2), g(7/2) one-particle-one-hole excitation across the N = 50 shell closure.
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